There were just three horses in race 3 and four in race 4 on a fast track. One and two scratches in the races respectively, although all scratches were by way of the vet. It will be interesting to see if vet scratches increase in light of the New York Times scrutiny.
62-1 winner Percussion stands out because that was just in a seven-horse field with nothing else on the board higher than 12-1. The race was a nw1x/25k optional. You would think he would have to have looked awful, to be that big of a price in a short field. Oddly, he'd won a maiden special weight at Aqueduct in his last start, which hardly would seem to make him unqualified for the event. That was his 10th start, so he'd been far from an exciting horse, but all of the races came in maiden special weights at good tracks, and he'd hit the board four times outside of the win.
Where he really stood out negatively was in his Beyers, which were clearly the worst in the race. His career-best Beyer was just 76, compared to career bests of 92, 90, 87, 107, 94, and 87 for the other entrants. I remember Beyer used to talk about a clear-top horse, and Percussion was sort of that in reverse.
He did appear a clear overlay against the morning line, where he was just 15-1, with an oddsmaker who is unusually unconcerned about hurting people's feeling. The oddsmaker had Vee's Accolade at 10-1 (went off 12-1), and Mandated Bliss 12-1 (went off 4-1).
Mandated Bliss ran last, but that was just a bad line on him. It didn't really fit his form, taking it at face value, and how could you rate a first-time Bruce Levine horse that way? Didn't the guy remember the good performance of Levine's California purchases in the past?
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Friday, March 30, 2012
Lasix ceiling a while in coming
Coming across the chart from when our Seducer broke her maiden in a grass maiden at Belmont in 1998, I was very surprised to see that not only did Seducer not run on Lasix, but only two of the twelve horses did! This was a 2-year-old maiden special weight on opening day of the Belmont fall meeting. I knew that when Lasix was first made legal in New York, in the fall of 1994, the percentage of horses running on it on opening day was in the 40% range. But I thought that by 1998, "vast majority" would have been a level-headed description for the breadth of Lasix usage. I knew that usage would be lowest in 2-year-old maiden races, but I didn't think it ever got as low as two out of 12 horses. It's also worth noting that ten of these 12 fillies had actually raced before. So the withholding of Lasix with 2-year-olds was not just for the first start. The changes in Lasix usage have occurred gradually enough that it's been possible not to have been fully aware of them.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Street Sense and Aubby K
The debacle with Castaway on Sunday aside, I'm beginning to think Street Semse is going to be a monster sire. The latest to jump up and run huge is Aubby K. Coming back from a 4th in the Pocahontas last fall, she took a nw1x at Gulfstream yesterday by just short of 10 lengths, and I got a 100.9 Beyer-style figure for her. Three-year-old fillies aren't supposed to run triple digits.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Dhaamer: on the surface, not the most likely stayer
We had the oddity yesterday of the British import Dhaamer getting beaten just a neck in the 12-furlong Tokyco City Cup at Santa Anita. Dhaamer's 3/4 brother, Malhub, was a 6f group I winner group at 4. Malhub is by Kingmambo, known for getting distance horses, while Dhaamer's sire, Dubai Destination, had group wins at 7f and 8f, and is a half to a Librettist, a really good miler. So it also seems backwards that he would be the one producing the stayer. Dhaamer has never even been tried at under a mile.
It's also interesting that he handled the dirt yesterday, because he certainly has a lot of European names in his pedigreee, although Dubai Destination's dam, Mysterial, is a half to My Sea Castles, who excelled sprinting on the dirt. I'm tempted to think Dhaamer will do even better when tried on turf, but he didn't set the world on fire as a handicapper on England, with all but one of his races on turf.
It's also interesting that he handled the dirt yesterday, because he certainly has a lot of European names in his pedigreee, although Dubai Destination's dam, Mysterial, is a half to My Sea Castles, who excelled sprinting on the dirt. I'm tempted to think Dhaamer will do even better when tried on turf, but he didn't set the world on fire as a handicapper on England, with all but one of his races on turf.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Basic Trainee
In the course of my current research project, I got interested in the career of Basic Trainee. He ran in all three of the Triple Crown races in 1998; I was even there for that Derby, but I don't remember this at all. I do remember the horse winning the Ocala Breeders' Sales race, and I remember liking him as a longshot in the Wood Memorial, where he was 4th.
The Triple Crown business was bad. He was last in the Derby, beaten 72 3/4; 8th by 24 in the Preakness; last in the Belmont, beaten 58 1/2.
The only graded stakes earnings he had (and actually, his only graded stakes race) going into the Derby was from the 4th in that Wood Memorial, but the Derby field didn't necessarily fill up in those days, and didn't in 1998, so he was able to run. I hate the reflexive entry of all horses with the requisite graded stakes earnings that can make it into the starting game for the Derby, but in a way it does protect the other horses from the really bad entrants.
Not surprisingly, Basic Trainee was away for 15 months after the Belmont. He had some success as an older horse, finding himself as a 4f horse, particularly at Charles Town. He even won a couple of stakes in that segment.
At one point, his stamina seemed to be o.k., as the Ocala race was 1 1/16, and the Wood Memorial 1 1/8. It's hard to see that the problem in the Triple Crown was just the length of the races, or even the combination of the class level and the distances. Clearly there was something, or some things, wrong with the horse. But it's interesting that he was able to revive going so short. That also doesn't fit with a Majestic Light.
The Triple Crown business was bad. He was last in the Derby, beaten 72 3/4; 8th by 24 in the Preakness; last in the Belmont, beaten 58 1/2.
The only graded stakes earnings he had (and actually, his only graded stakes race) going into the Derby was from the 4th in that Wood Memorial, but the Derby field didn't necessarily fill up in those days, and didn't in 1998, so he was able to run. I hate the reflexive entry of all horses with the requisite graded stakes earnings that can make it into the starting game for the Derby, but in a way it does protect the other horses from the really bad entrants.
Not surprisingly, Basic Trainee was away for 15 months after the Belmont. He had some success as an older horse, finding himself as a 4f horse, particularly at Charles Town. He even won a couple of stakes in that segment.
At one point, his stamina seemed to be o.k., as the Ocala race was 1 1/16, and the Wood Memorial 1 1/8. It's hard to see that the problem in the Triple Crown was just the length of the races, or even the combination of the class level and the distances. Clearly there was something, or some things, wrong with the horse. But it's interesting that he was able to revive going so short. That also doesn't fit with a Majestic Light.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Woodford Lady, half to Sara Louise and Just Louise
Combining age, pedigree, and apparent ability, in retrospect Woodford Lady looks like she was a lot of filly running for maiden claiming 80k last fall at Keeneland, a race she won by 4 lengths. If the wire had been back a couple of jumps in Thursday's 3-year-old filly, 1 1/16 nw1x allowance at Gulfstream, she would have prevailed. As it was, she ran 2nd to her stablemate, Goldrush Girl, who did have the tougher trip of the two.
Woodford Lady stands out to me because she is half-sister to Sara Louise, who while failing to place in either of the Breeders' Cup F+M Sprints in which she competed, was second choice in one and third choice in the other;, and also half-sister to Just Louise, an early 2-year-old graded stakes winner of 2010 before she needed a year's layoff that also marked the end of her good form.
Woodford Lady is by Sharp Humor, and surprisingly seems to stay a distance well.
Woodford Lady stands out to me because she is half-sister to Sara Louise, who while failing to place in either of the Breeders' Cup F+M Sprints in which she competed, was second choice in one and third choice in the other;, and also half-sister to Just Louise, an early 2-year-old graded stakes winner of 2010 before she needed a year's layoff that also marked the end of her good form.
Woodford Lady is by Sharp Humor, and surprisingly seems to stay a distance well.
Passing Mood and Summer Mood: The first ROARF edition of "horses I confuse"
I get excited whenever I see Summer Mood in pedigrees, because I think she is Passing Mood, who was dam of With Approval and Touch Gold. That Summer Mood is also a Canadian-bred doesn't help matters. Both Passing Mood and Summer Mood were bred and owned by Kinghaven but are no relation. With Passing Mood, who came first, one can see what Kinghaven was doing with the name: she's out of Cool Mood, and Buckpasser gives you the "passing." But what was going on with Summer Mood? How do you get that from Raja Baba out of Fairly Regal, by Viceregal? If Kinghaven decided to go with 'Mood' again, in light of Passing Mood, that would be a bit strange, because Passing Mood was just a minor stakes winner. Summer Mood, on the other hand, went on to be a major Canadian stakes runner, winning over $500,000, also over ten times what Passing Mood made. In the shed, however, it was all Passing Mood, with Summer Mood not doing too much of note, at least from what I can tell from pedigreequery.
The point of "horses I confuse" posts, aside from just my weird sense of humor, is to emerge no longer confuse the horses, of course. Going through the horses in detail, one engages with their records more deeply, and hopefully begins to actually know them.
The point of "horses I confuse" posts, aside from just my weird sense of humor, is to emerge no longer confuse the horses, of course. Going through the horses in detail, one engages with their records more deeply, and hopefully begins to actually know them.
Crossing The Line still firing
In October, I wrote about Crossing The Line. He's maintained his remarkable consistency, hitting the board in all five subsequent races, including wins in his last two races, now that's he's 10 years old. These 25-22.5 claimers for older horses on the turf at Santa Anita are a respectable level of racing, too: Irish Art, a stakes winner in October, ran the same 6 1/2 furlongs just 0.25 seconds faster than Crossing the Line taking a nw2x allowance two races later.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Flashy Dresser, as of 3/22
I just made a post warning about getting too excited about horses off their debuts, but I have to say that I think the 3-year-old colt and Rushaway entrant Flashy Dresser is a potential top horse who may be being perceived as being just another prospect right now. There's another way to look at the time he ran breaking his maiden than the way that Beyer looked at, which produced an 89 Beyer. I got a 101 for the race, and the 89 interpretation didn't really occur to me. Then, visually, I thought the race was outstanding. Flashy Dresser was forced to come off the pace a little, and ran up on horses. My comments read "No trouble assuming command," "With authority," "To lead in hand," "++ to +++ visual." The two horses behind were Unbridled's Way, a full brother to Eight Belles, and Broome Street, a half brother to Sky Mesa. They started as a 7-10 entry in a field consisting almost exclusively of first-time starters.
While Flashy Dresser went off 7-1, this counted as being bet in my mind, with his jockey, Luis Contreras, owning just a 7% win percentage at the meet, and Fred Seitz not a trainer bettors respond to. The 7-1 made some sense off a 59 4/5 bullet work.
Flashy Bull is a live young sire. After skimming Flashy Dresser's female family, I concluded there "doesn't seem to be any FF here to speak of." I would take the $70,000 yearling price as a definite positive in light of Flashy Dresser's pedigree, particularly since bidders didn't have the positive runners by which to judge Flashy Bull that they have now.
While Flashy Dresser went off 7-1, this counted as being bet in my mind, with his jockey, Luis Contreras, owning just a 7% win percentage at the meet, and Fred Seitz not a trainer bettors respond to. The 7-1 made some sense off a 59 4/5 bullet work.
Flashy Bull is a live young sire. After skimming Flashy Dresser's female family, I concluded there "doesn't seem to be any FF here to speak of." I would take the $70,000 yearling price as a definite positive in light of Flashy Dresser's pedigree, particularly since bidders didn't have the positive runners by which to judge Flashy Bull that they have now.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Port Eighty, Kit, & Halo Miss America: who would have believed absolutely nothing?
Lest we annoint young horses, specifically first-out winners too quickly: imagine being at Saratoga on August 15 and 16 of 1997, and seeing three 11-horse maiden special weights on fast tracks for 2-year-olds over the two days. With the way the races were won, you have thought you had gotten lucky and really seen something. A Bill Mott, Forty Niner colt named Port Eighty won by 9 1/2 lengths, with 15 1/2 on 3rd, and 21 1/2 over 5th. The other division on the 15th was won by fellow first-time starter Kit, a Carson City who won by 5 1/4. I'm not sure how fast Port Eighty and Kit ran, but despite the more spread-out field in Port Eighty's race, he was less than a tenth of a second faster than Kit. The next day, the odds-on favorite and first-time starter Halo Miss America won by 7, with 9 lengths over 3rd, and 14 over 4th. A John Oxley, John Ward filly, her year-older brother American Champ had already won four stakes in '97.
Port Eighty, Kit, and Halo Miss America were all flops after their resounding maiden wins. Each made just six or seven more starts. Port Eighty and Kit won again, but just once and at the allowance level, while Halo Miss America never did. Sometimes horses who looked very promising and didn't make it show long layoffs soom after the early fireworks, but that was not really the case with Halo Miss America, and definitely not the case with Port Eighty and Kit, who continued right on racing, but just seemed to have lost the magic. The average career earnings for the three horses was $45,699. As a group they barely doubled what they won in those first maiden special weights.
Port Eighty, Kit, and Halo Miss America were all flops after their resounding maiden wins. Each made just six or seven more starts. Port Eighty and Kit won again, but just once and at the allowance level, while Halo Miss America never did. Sometimes horses who looked very promising and didn't make it show long layoffs soom after the early fireworks, but that was not really the case with Halo Miss America, and definitely not the case with Port Eighty and Kit, who continued right on racing, but just seemed to have lost the magic. The average career earnings for the three horses was $45,699. As a group they barely doubled what they won in those first maiden special weights.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Cutting back to a one-day weekend
I'm sure partly it's the time of year, but have you noticed how few stakes there have been recently on Sundays? The monotony of the racing week is really only broken by Saturdays. I purchase a hard copy of the Form on Sundays out of habit, but I'm not sure there's any reason to.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Game Ball is fun; can he be good?
When I review a card's turf races, I first standardize the final times for distance, and also simplify the fractions. On the second point, I take the fraction that most closely equals halfway through the race, and reduce that time to its quarter mile rate. I then do the same for the remainder of the race after the halfway mark.
For instance, a one mile race that goes in 1:35, with a first half in :47, is simplified to (23.50, 24.00). The first half went in :47 (23.50), the second half in :48 (24.00).
If a pace accelerates in the second half of a race, closers seem to struggle to win, and the more uneven the comparison is, the worse the slant is towards front runners. Another point is that the farther off a slow pace a closer is, the less likely he is to win. So you have four questions, I guess.
1. Was the pace accelerating?
2. How accelerating was it?
3. Did the winner close?
4. If so, from how far back did he close?
A horse running at Gulfstream this meet, Game Ball, is turning this theory on its head with three victories and a nose loss in four starts. From the positions he's running, and the paces he's facing, he shouldn't even be competitive, and yet he's winning. Here's the summary.
12/9 (24.52, 23.56) Game Ball 12 by 9 3/4 halfway. 1 by 4 1/2 finish
1/15 (24.56, 23.90) Game Ball 11 by 10 halfway. 1 by 1/2 finish.
2/16 (24.87, 23.84) Game Ball 9 by 7 1/2 halfway. 2 by no finish.
3/18 (25.75, 23.86) Game Ball 9 by 9 halfway. 1 by hd finish.
Only the 1/15 pace was even close to being reasonable. The others were majorly slanted towards frontrunners. Sunday's pace was ridiculous.
The question is if the normal rules somehow don't apply to Game Ball, and he wouldn't win more emphatically with a faster pace, or might even have a more difficult time winning than he's having now -- or, if he is just completely outclassing the horses he's facing, and is actually running like a high-class allowance horse, or even a stakes winner of a level unknown, while he beats the starter allowance horses with what amounts to a sizeable handicap.
Also standing out about this horse is that John Oxley bred him, and has campaigned him for all 18 of his races, even as he descended as low as $7,500 claiming. Oxley has won the Derby and dreams the dream, and I don't think claiming races is his game.
When I saw that Game Ball went from the Illinois Derby in his 4th start, to a claiming race in his 5th, I thought he must be an unsound horse, or a horse with an issue insiders thought was in danger of derailing him at any time. But what comes through more with complete past performances is a horse who's a plodder, who was never thought very fast or very talented. The Illinois Derby start was a leap for him, after a maiden 50 win and an allowance win at Tampa. The claiming race was of a decent level: $40,000, non-winners-of-three-lifetime, and he was 8-1 in it. Game Ball still works between races, which obviously isn't something that can be taken for granted with a $10,000 starter allowance horse.
I think John Oxley must love the horse to death, must consider him incredible fun. Horses who win a lot but don't make much money get called "fun"; horses that make money but don't win, are frustrating. Game Ball is also fun because he can win on dirt or turf (although if he does have a stakes future, I have a strong suspicion it's on turf). And when he began his winning streak, which was snapped on February 16, 12-furlong and longer races at Fort Erie were his prey. Fun horses are colorful, and don't do the normal things.
Game Ball is by Sky Mesa out of a Saint Ballado mare, Balldo. I know Oxley (or if not, Debby Oxley) also has Play Ballado, dam of the current stakes winner, Sweet Seventeen, and a talented, graded stakes-placed runner in her own right. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Oxley has (or had) a bunch of Saint Ballado mares. I have a dim impression of thus. Maybe the strategy was to breed them to Sky Mesa. Oxley became the owner of Balldo between her 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons.
I can do all the pace analysis that I want; maybe it's just my pessimistic personality, but I feel Game Ball is consigned to be fun and not good. A fun horse also means you root for the horse, however, so I hope I'm wrong.
For instance, a one mile race that goes in 1:35, with a first half in :47, is simplified to (23.50, 24.00). The first half went in :47 (23.50), the second half in :48 (24.00).
If a pace accelerates in the second half of a race, closers seem to struggle to win, and the more uneven the comparison is, the worse the slant is towards front runners. Another point is that the farther off a slow pace a closer is, the less likely he is to win. So you have four questions, I guess.
1. Was the pace accelerating?
2. How accelerating was it?
3. Did the winner close?
4. If so, from how far back did he close?
A horse running at Gulfstream this meet, Game Ball, is turning this theory on its head with three victories and a nose loss in four starts. From the positions he's running, and the paces he's facing, he shouldn't even be competitive, and yet he's winning. Here's the summary.
12/9 (24.52, 23.56) Game Ball 12 by 9 3/4 halfway. 1 by 4 1/2 finish
1/15 (24.56, 23.90) Game Ball 11 by 10 halfway. 1 by 1/2 finish.
2/16 (24.87, 23.84) Game Ball 9 by 7 1/2 halfway. 2 by no finish.
3/18 (25.75, 23.86) Game Ball 9 by 9 halfway. 1 by hd finish.
Only the 1/15 pace was even close to being reasonable. The others were majorly slanted towards frontrunners. Sunday's pace was ridiculous.
The question is if the normal rules somehow don't apply to Game Ball, and he wouldn't win more emphatically with a faster pace, or might even have a more difficult time winning than he's having now -- or, if he is just completely outclassing the horses he's facing, and is actually running like a high-class allowance horse, or even a stakes winner of a level unknown, while he beats the starter allowance horses with what amounts to a sizeable handicap.
Also standing out about this horse is that John Oxley bred him, and has campaigned him for all 18 of his races, even as he descended as low as $7,500 claiming. Oxley has won the Derby and dreams the dream, and I don't think claiming races is his game.
When I saw that Game Ball went from the Illinois Derby in his 4th start, to a claiming race in his 5th, I thought he must be an unsound horse, or a horse with an issue insiders thought was in danger of derailing him at any time. But what comes through more with complete past performances is a horse who's a plodder, who was never thought very fast or very talented. The Illinois Derby start was a leap for him, after a maiden 50 win and an allowance win at Tampa. The claiming race was of a decent level: $40,000, non-winners-of-three-lifetime, and he was 8-1 in it. Game Ball still works between races, which obviously isn't something that can be taken for granted with a $10,000 starter allowance horse.
I think John Oxley must love the horse to death, must consider him incredible fun. Horses who win a lot but don't make much money get called "fun"; horses that make money but don't win, are frustrating. Game Ball is also fun because he can win on dirt or turf (although if he does have a stakes future, I have a strong suspicion it's on turf). And when he began his winning streak, which was snapped on February 16, 12-furlong and longer races at Fort Erie were his prey. Fun horses are colorful, and don't do the normal things.
Game Ball is by Sky Mesa out of a Saint Ballado mare, Balldo. I know Oxley (or if not, Debby Oxley) also has Play Ballado, dam of the current stakes winner, Sweet Seventeen, and a talented, graded stakes-placed runner in her own right. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Oxley has (or had) a bunch of Saint Ballado mares. I have a dim impression of thus. Maybe the strategy was to breed them to Sky Mesa. Oxley became the owner of Balldo between her 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons.
I can do all the pace analysis that I want; maybe it's just my pessimistic personality, but I feel Game Ball is consigned to be fun and not good. A fun horse also means you root for the horse, however, so I hope I'm wrong.
How do announcers judge length totals so accurately?
Larry Collmus must be as giddy about the outlook for Turbo Compressor as I am, because calling a 5 1/2 length win 8 lengths, as he did in the 4-year-old's race on Sunday, is a miss on the winning margin of unusual magnitude. I wonder what the tricks are for nailing the winning margin, or if it's more something announcers are able to do after watching and/or calling countless races? I bet there are tricks.
If there are, is it worth our time to learn them and apply them? That would be hard to justify. It's hard to think of other racing jobs where the performance of them is aided by the ability. It's more an endeavour that gets the competitive juices flowing. A fun contest to bet on with your friends. I can also see tracks sponsoring "beat the announcer" contests (in which, unfortunately, the announcers would have eveything to lose, and nothing to gain).
If there are, is it worth our time to learn them and apply them? That would be hard to justify. It's hard to think of other racing jobs where the performance of them is aided by the ability. It's more an endeavour that gets the competitive juices flowing. A fun contest to bet on with your friends. I can also see tracks sponsoring "beat the announcer" contests (in which, unfortunately, the announcers would have eveything to lose, and nothing to gain).
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Bargains possible with late 2-year-olds at dispersals
It was a five-horse field depleted by as many scratches, but I'm impressed that Patrick Biancone was able to win Saturday first out in a maiden special weight with a horse (Innocent Man) who cost just $18,000 in December. That was at Timonium and Innocent Man was part of the Flying Zee dispersal. Biancone has trained for Flying Zee, remember, so I'm sure it's not a coincidence that he bought this horse (or one of his clients did, anyway). He also trained Innocent Man's sire, Henny Hughes. Innocent Man's stock had really fallen, because he was a $150,000 weanling, and a $125,000 yearling. I don't know what kinds of works he was posting before his sale in December, but he worked a best-of-35 58 2/5 at Santa Anita on March 1. He's now a gelding; he wasn't listed as one in the catalogue for the sale.
Perhaps there are some bargains to be found at these dispersals? For instance, the Tampa Bay Derby favorite and 4th-place finisher Spring Hill Farm also sold comparatively cheaply ($60,000, I think) not long before he made his debut. He was part of Ned Evans' dispersal. He's much better bred than Innocent Man, so the two horses probably weren't assessed that differently before they were sold, despite the gap in prices.
Perhaps there are some bargains to be found at these dispersals? For instance, the Tampa Bay Derby favorite and 4th-place finisher Spring Hill Farm also sold comparatively cheaply ($60,000, I think) not long before he made his debut. He was part of Ned Evans' dispersal. He's much better bred than Innocent Man, so the two horses probably weren't assessed that differently before they were sold, despite the gap in prices.
A rabbit who's not up to the task, slow final times, and more about Fabulous Sasha
My initial interest in this filly was that she was 107-1 in Saturday's 5th at Gulfstream, a 35-30 8.5f maiden claimer on the turf, and took the field around on the front end until the stretch call. I wasn't thinking, "Wooh, she almost won at 107-1," although I suppose you could look at things that way. (Fabulous Sasha ended up 5th by 3 1/2). Instead, I noticed that the race was very slow, even for being a bottom class race for Gulfstream. The fractions were slow throughout. You see a lot of turf races of all classes that are slow for the first half, but usually the pace picks up after that. This one remained slow through 6f (it was 49.16 for the half, and 1:14.48 for 3/4, on a firm course).
I believe in track and field, in order to set a record in races like the mile, a good pacesetter is desirable. Well, Fabulous Sasha was the opposite of a good pacesetter. Probably no one wanted to move early, and so they just lay behind this filly as she really didn't do her part of the bargain to bring about a good final time. And, while I doubt this maiden claimer was a good race, speed figures might underrate the time, depending on their methodology.
I don't know that I've seen a horse who has had attracted such a small share of the betting race after race as Fabulous Sasha has. Maybe we can credit the South Florida bettors, because I don't think she's been uniquely overmatched. High prices are quirks, and ineptness on the part of the horse is just one variable. Sasha's prices prior to Saturday's race were 200-1, 128-1, 86-1, 34-1, 163-1, 122-1, and 109-1. That takes us to the fourth start of her career. She's just a 3-year-old.
Going off a longer price on Saturday in the same heat was 6-year-old Toccatina, also making her 4th start. She was 126-1, and ran to it, finishing 9th of 10.
Fabulous Sasha deserved sentimental support because her jockey, Jerry Villegas, still hasn't won. He's 0 for 21 career with three 3rds. Fabulous Sasha was eligible to carry 106 pounds in the race, but Villegas could only make 109.
I believe in track and field, in order to set a record in races like the mile, a good pacesetter is desirable. Well, Fabulous Sasha was the opposite of a good pacesetter. Probably no one wanted to move early, and so they just lay behind this filly as she really didn't do her part of the bargain to bring about a good final time. And, while I doubt this maiden claimer was a good race, speed figures might underrate the time, depending on their methodology.
I don't know that I've seen a horse who has had attracted such a small share of the betting race after race as Fabulous Sasha has. Maybe we can credit the South Florida bettors, because I don't think she's been uniquely overmatched. High prices are quirks, and ineptness on the part of the horse is just one variable. Sasha's prices prior to Saturday's race were 200-1, 128-1, 86-1, 34-1, 163-1, 122-1, and 109-1. That takes us to the fourth start of her career. She's just a 3-year-old.
Going off a longer price on Saturday in the same heat was 6-year-old Toccatina, also making her 4th start. She was 126-1, and ran to it, finishing 9th of 10.
Fabulous Sasha deserved sentimental support because her jockey, Jerry Villegas, still hasn't won. He's 0 for 21 career with three 3rds. Fabulous Sasha was eligible to carry 106 pounds in the race, but Villegas could only make 109.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Scalper and Frances in the Sky
I got a kick out of seeing that there were four 2-year-old first-out winners in June of '96 at Churchill Downs, and the last two, Frances in the Sky and Scalper, were by Sky Classic and Silver Hawk. These were sprint races on the dirt that they won, mind you. Frances in the Sky and Scalper only made eight career starts between them, so they didn't really get a chance to show if they could have been stars going longer and on turf. Scalper particularly leaves me wondering what might have been: it was over 19 months after his maiden win that he ran again, but he did well, running 2nd in an allowance on the dirt, and then winning the same kind of race the next time at Keeneland, at a mile and a sixteenth. Particularly in those days, horses just did not return the same after layoffs of that long, but Scalper was still pretty good, and he hadn't even been tried on the turf (his return race was actually rained off the turf). Scalper's dam was young, so he actually had a decent half sister running just last year named Midway Holiday. Scalper's dam, Gatap, was a half sister to a Silver Hawk named Zoonaqua, who won dirt graded stakes (Oak Leaf and Sorrento) at 2. So maybe the female family did trend very strongly towards 2-year-old dirt form, and Scalper would have been a good horse had he not gotten hurt, but not necessarily a freak on the turf. Maybe the Silver Hawk was overridden.
The undeveloped Stephen Foster
Continuing to browse charts from 1996, I'm surprised to see that the Stephen Foster, although a grade II, wasn't really an important race yet, featuring a purse of just $150,000. The winner completely eludes me: Tenants Harbor. He was followed by Pleasant Tango and Mt. Sassafras, who did at least put a scare into Alphabet's Soup, Louis Quatorze, and Cigar in that year's Breeders' Cup Classic, and go on to win the Donn. The 1.10-1 favorite in the '96 Foster was Knockadoon, whom I remember best for a medication controversy following the Wood Memorial one year. The first big Foster I remember was when Awesome Again beat Silver Charm, and this turns out to follow the purse increase, with the value to the winner going up nearly five times from 1997 to 1998. I can't remember what the circumstances were there. Usually, when there's such a purse increase, there's a sponsor involved, but the Foster doesn't sport one in its name, at least not today. If the money for the Foster was increased just on account of Silver Charm's running, Churchill decided the purse increase was a good idea, because they've maintained it (or close to maintained it) ever since.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Talk about market inefficiencies -- Street Crew!
The 3-year-old filly Street Crew broke her maiden in a mile off-the-turf maiden at Gulfstream Thursday, paying $56.00. I have to think she was a plausible play. Not only is she a half sister to grade I winner and millionaire Critical Eye, but her 5-year-old half sister Glamorista romped in an allowance at Santa Anita Sunday for her second win in three career starts. In her debut, Glamorista got a 95 Beyer, and I gave her a (perhaps somewhat generous) 92 for Sunday's win. Glamorista's race on Sunday was on the dirt, and Critical Eye also made her mark on the dirt, despite being by Dynaformer. Street Crew also had a license to be good, going for $350,000 as a March 2-year-old.
I know, through studying, that fans bet trainers and jockeys. You probably know this because you do it, although maybe you should do less of it. Comparing Street Crew individually with each of the otehr horses in the race, her odds seem to have been a product of
1) Running 10th by 10 1/4 first out (albeit after having "hesitated at the start").
2) Jockey Rocco, Jr. and trainer Tarrant taking a backseat to higher profile jockeys and trainers.
3) Unclear. Even if you assess the way most people assess, you don't get this filly as much higher odds than every horse in the race except for Negrita Tata. You would really hope that if her odds didn't quite square with past form and connections, the difference would be a lower price, with the Street Cry/Critical Eye/350k purchase price aspects drawing attention.
But it was the opposite; Street Crew was truly dead on the board. For instance, 11-1 Cypress Pond was 8th by 7 first out, with a 49 Beyer, compared to the 52 that Street Crew received in her one start. Rusty Arnold, Cypress Pond's trainer, has a much bigger stable than Amy Tarrant, but he actually won a lower percentage of starts in 2011. And Manoel Cruz has 45% fewer wins at the current Gulfstream meet than Joseph Rocco, with only 16% fewer mounts.
Perhaps the fact that Street Crew had run on the turf in her debut scared people, whereas Cypress Pond was just shifting from Keeneland's synthetic. But couldn't it be argued that the fact that Street Crew would be completely changing games after a unsatisfactory first race was a positive? It wasn't known what she could do on dirt, and it turned out to be winning this race.
I know, through studying, that fans bet trainers and jockeys. You probably know this because you do it, although maybe you should do less of it. Comparing Street Crew individually with each of the otehr horses in the race, her odds seem to have been a product of
1) Running 10th by 10 1/4 first out (albeit after having "hesitated at the start").
2) Jockey Rocco, Jr. and trainer Tarrant taking a backseat to higher profile jockeys and trainers.
3) Unclear. Even if you assess the way most people assess, you don't get this filly as much higher odds than every horse in the race except for Negrita Tata. You would really hope that if her odds didn't quite square with past form and connections, the difference would be a lower price, with the Street Cry/Critical Eye/350k purchase price aspects drawing attention.
But it was the opposite; Street Crew was truly dead on the board. For instance, 11-1 Cypress Pond was 8th by 7 first out, with a 49 Beyer, compared to the 52 that Street Crew received in her one start. Rusty Arnold, Cypress Pond's trainer, has a much bigger stable than Amy Tarrant, but he actually won a lower percentage of starts in 2011. And Manoel Cruz has 45% fewer wins at the current Gulfstream meet than Joseph Rocco, with only 16% fewer mounts.
Perhaps the fact that Street Crew had run on the turf in her debut scared people, whereas Cypress Pond was just shifting from Keeneland's synthetic. But couldn't it be argued that the fact that Street Crew would be completely changing games after a unsatisfactory first race was a positive? It wasn't known what she could do on dirt, and it turned out to be winning this race.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Keep an eye on Speightstowns in turf sprints
Kind of notable that, not only did we have two Speightstowns winning at Gulfstream on Wednesday, but we had two winning in the same type of race on the far end of the distance spectrum, as both races were 5f on the turf. The winners were Speight the Halo, in a $32,000 claimer for 4+up, and Going to Kukaro, who took a nw2x allowance for fillies and mares. I can remember one very good Speightstown turf sprinter, that being Rose Catherine.
When a Beyer seems absurd from a raw class perspective; Questing
Interesting question provoked by Questing from Gulfstream's 9th on Wednesday. She boasted excellent form at 2 in England, not only coming within a head and a neck of a couple of group III triumphs, but coming that close to an undefeated record, since she won her other race, her maiden debut, by 3 1/2 lengths.
These credentials gave her a shot at the BC Juvenile Fillies (the dirt one), and herein lies the dilemma Questing posed. She finished 5th of 14 in the race, so was in one sense very competitive. But she was beaten a fairly long way (11 3/4), and the race wasn't fast, so her Beyer was just 66. If you believe her Beyer, her performance might not have been good enough to win an average maiden special weight. Certainly, one can't just ignore the good European form, and that has to raise her rating, but what as a handicapper do you go with? The 66 Beyer, or a horse who beat over two thirds of the best 2-year-old fillies when matched up against them? My instinct would have been to credit the latter more than the former.
I suppose the fans did, too; Questing was heavily bet, 4/5 in a 12-horse field, with no one else (the eventual winner, the now 2 for 2 Dame Marie) lower than 5-1. Whether Questing's performance shed any light on the fundamental question or not, she disappointed in an unmistakable way, running 4th, and never looking best.
This race was on the turf, which I'm sure bolstered bettors' confidence in her chances. If the race had been on dirt, the 66 Beyer from the BC Juvenile Fillies could be coupled with the out-of-the-money finish, and it could be hypothesized that Questing is just better on turf. With the race being on turf, she's emerging as a tough read, although I'd still be inclined to think she'll have a good 2012.
These credentials gave her a shot at the BC Juvenile Fillies (the dirt one), and herein lies the dilemma Questing posed. She finished 5th of 14 in the race, so was in one sense very competitive. But she was beaten a fairly long way (11 3/4), and the race wasn't fast, so her Beyer was just 66. If you believe her Beyer, her performance might not have been good enough to win an average maiden special weight. Certainly, one can't just ignore the good European form, and that has to raise her rating, but what as a handicapper do you go with? The 66 Beyer, or a horse who beat over two thirds of the best 2-year-old fillies when matched up against them? My instinct would have been to credit the latter more than the former.
I suppose the fans did, too; Questing was heavily bet, 4/5 in a 12-horse field, with no one else (the eventual winner, the now 2 for 2 Dame Marie) lower than 5-1. Whether Questing's performance shed any light on the fundamental question or not, she disappointed in an unmistakable way, running 4th, and never looking best.
This race was on the turf, which I'm sure bolstered bettors' confidence in her chances. If the race had been on dirt, the 66 Beyer from the BC Juvenile Fillies could be coupled with the out-of-the-money finish, and it could be hypothesized that Questing is just better on turf. With the race being on turf, she's emerging as a tough read, although I'd still be inclined to think she'll have a good 2012.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Let's suspend "due to graduate" thinking in So. Cal for non-Baffert trainees
In Sunday's 6th at Santa Anita, a 6f maiden special weight for 4+up, Southern Sunrise went off the 3/5 favorite on the strength of an 88-Beyer, 2 by 1 1/2 debut four-and-a-half weeks previously. That sounds reasonable, right?
Not when the horse in question must beat not one, but two Bob Baffert trainees. While the Form lists 88 as the par for the condition, do you really think that is going to do it in the current Santa Anita Bob Baffert environment?
It didn't; Roman Threat, one of the Bafferts, ran 6f in 1:08.02, which I got a 109 Beyer-style number for. Making conservative assumptions, the race deserves to be 100+, if not quite that high. To Southern Sunrise's credit, he did run 2nd, only 1 1/4 behind Roman Threat, and 6 1/4 clear of the other Baffert trainee.
It would be reasonable to think that Southern Sunrise was not regarded as just your ordinary "2nd in debut" type with the money that he took -- that the fans recognized the Baffert factor, but thought that Southern Sunrise's special ability offset it. The hole in that theory is that Southern Sunrise was 6-1 in his debut. So if there was legitimate buzz around him, it didn't really take hold until Sunday's race.
What seems out of whack is that the two Baffert trainees were 3.10-1 and 6.10-1, respectively (Roman Threat, a first-time starter half to Indian Blessing, was actually the higher price). If you add the odds implied by those two prices, ignoring take-out, they only sum to a 38.5% probability of winning. If you do the same for Southern Sunrise's 3/5 odds, it's a 62.5% probability of winning. That ratio, my friends, is out of whack. Given precedent, Baffert cannot be on the short stick, without extremely good reason....
As an addendum, I cited Devil's Bag before as a broodmare sire who isn't particularly good. It's his daughter, Clochard, who's the dam of Southern Sunrise.
The 2nd dam on Southern Sunrise is Danseuse, who won her debut in 1:22 flat at Belmont, with Capote Belle 2nd, and the 3rd-place finisher more than 20 lengths back. This was the same day that our colt Teenager broke his maiden in a much slower 1:24 flat. Danseuse would only run once more, winning an allowance by 11.
Not when the horse in question must beat not one, but two Bob Baffert trainees. While the Form lists 88 as the par for the condition, do you really think that is going to do it in the current Santa Anita Bob Baffert environment?
It didn't; Roman Threat, one of the Bafferts, ran 6f in 1:08.02, which I got a 109 Beyer-style number for. Making conservative assumptions, the race deserves to be 100+, if not quite that high. To Southern Sunrise's credit, he did run 2nd, only 1 1/4 behind Roman Threat, and 6 1/4 clear of the other Baffert trainee.
It would be reasonable to think that Southern Sunrise was not regarded as just your ordinary "2nd in debut" type with the money that he took -- that the fans recognized the Baffert factor, but thought that Southern Sunrise's special ability offset it. The hole in that theory is that Southern Sunrise was 6-1 in his debut. So if there was legitimate buzz around him, it didn't really take hold until Sunday's race.
What seems out of whack is that the two Baffert trainees were 3.10-1 and 6.10-1, respectively (Roman Threat, a first-time starter half to Indian Blessing, was actually the higher price). If you add the odds implied by those two prices, ignoring take-out, they only sum to a 38.5% probability of winning. If you do the same for Southern Sunrise's 3/5 odds, it's a 62.5% probability of winning. That ratio, my friends, is out of whack. Given precedent, Baffert cannot be on the short stick, without extremely good reason....
As an addendum, I cited Devil's Bag before as a broodmare sire who isn't particularly good. It's his daughter, Clochard, who's the dam of Southern Sunrise.
The 2nd dam on Southern Sunrise is Danseuse, who won her debut in 1:22 flat at Belmont, with Capote Belle 2nd, and the 3rd-place finisher more than 20 lengths back. This was the same day that our colt Teenager broke his maiden in a much slower 1:24 flat. Danseuse would only run once more, winning an allowance by 11.
A couple of key races
I don't really believe in the concept of the key race, or maybe better put, I believe there is only a very little bit to it. This belief doesn't mean that I don't notice to some extent which races produce subsequent talent, though I more find it neat that we were watching very good horses in lowly races and didn't realize it. It may be hard to find a better recent example than Cigar Street and Macho Macho running 5th + 6th in the same Fair Grounds maiden on 2/3. They both won subequently, and look out for them.
Exothermic over News Pending over Saturday Launch at Gulfstream on 2/5 has a chance to show up as having been a heck of an allowance. News Pending proceeded to be 2nd in the Fountain of Youth, and if I had to commit, I'd say he's better on turf. Saturday Launch lay 8th through a 49.18 half mile on Sunday and graduated from the condition anyway. Exothermic, we haven't seen again yet, but the situation is a bit like when Calumet would send out a couple of impressive 2-year-olds in Citation's era and know that another unraced was working even better. The difference is just that Exothermic beat News Pending and Saturday Launch in the afternoon, not in the morning.
Exothermic over News Pending over Saturday Launch at Gulfstream on 2/5 has a chance to show up as having been a heck of an allowance. News Pending proceeded to be 2nd in the Fountain of Youth, and if I had to commit, I'd say he's better on turf. Saturday Launch lay 8th through a 49.18 half mile on Sunday and graduated from the condition anyway. Exothermic, we haven't seen again yet, but the situation is a bit like when Calumet would send out a couple of impressive 2-year-olds in Citation's era and know that another unraced was working even better. The difference is just that Exothermic beat News Pending and Saturday Launch in the afternoon, not in the morning.
Friday, March 9, 2012
How Karakorum has me stumped
I am sure that even most sometime partners in Karakorum could not positively identify each of their stable's charges through the years. And only someone with that kind of familiarity would have had reason to ask why there had not been a horse with the stable name itself, as opposed to the bevy of "Karakorum this" and "that Karakorum" names that populate New York racing. The assumption would be that "Karakorum" had indeed been advanced once, only to have not made a great dent in the racing world, and that we were at least in a waiting period before it could be used again.
Imagine my surprise, then, when in the course of my review of 1996 charts, I ran across Ridder Thoroughbred Stable's Karakorum breaking her maiden by 10 lengths at Santa Anita Park. Karakorum Racing (or is Farm?)'s website says they had their first winner in 1997, or at least had their first winner at NYRA then. This was again a year after California's Karakorum broke her maiden.
There was something where that 10-length maiden win came from for Karakorum; indeed, she was a good deal more classy than most of the authentic Karakorums, using her California-bred status to try stakes in over half of her 13 starts, and placing in a couple. She does not seem to have had a broodmare career.
Going to the on-line names book, "Karakorum" is permanently unavailable. I'm guessing that stables cannot be represented by a horse of the same name (nor, of course, can anyone else use that name). If this is the rule, it certainly is silly that Karakorum probably runs a score of horses every year honoring itself, and that somehow separation and non self-promotion are considered intact just because there's a word in tandem with Karakorum in the names.
Through the tedium of the Karakorum names, I'm determined to have some fun with them. It's actually prime territory for my penchant for over-analysis..
Imagine my surprise, then, when in the course of my review of 1996 charts, I ran across Ridder Thoroughbred Stable's Karakorum breaking her maiden by 10 lengths at Santa Anita Park. Karakorum Racing (or is Farm?)'s website says they had their first winner in 1997, or at least had their first winner at NYRA then. This was again a year after California's Karakorum broke her maiden.
There was something where that 10-length maiden win came from for Karakorum; indeed, she was a good deal more classy than most of the authentic Karakorums, using her California-bred status to try stakes in over half of her 13 starts, and placing in a couple. She does not seem to have had a broodmare career.
Going to the on-line names book, "Karakorum" is permanently unavailable. I'm guessing that stables cannot be represented by a horse of the same name (nor, of course, can anyone else use that name). If this is the rule, it certainly is silly that Karakorum probably runs a score of horses every year honoring itself, and that somehow separation and non self-promotion are considered intact just because there's a word in tandem with Karakorum in the names.
Through the tedium of the Karakorum names, I'm determined to have some fun with them. It's actually prime territory for my penchant for over-analysis..
When the Gulfstream Park Handicap was a highlight, not an afterthought
For a while, the Gulfstream Park Handicap clearly wasn't working, and that's why it is now being tried at a mile. But I had forgotten that as late as 1996, Gulfstream was still thinking of the prestigious Donn as a prep for the Gulfstream Park Handicap. The Donn had a purse of $300,000, and the Gulfstream Park Handicap, $500,000. In fact, that purse for the Gulfstream Park Handicap was the same as for the Florida Derby.
The GP H. didn't have Cigar in 1996, as he would start weeks later in the inaugural Dubai World Cup. But it did have Wekiva Springs, Star Standard, L'Carriere, and Mecke, so wasn't fully in descent. Those horses ran 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th, and were the four favorites.
The GP H. didn't have Cigar in 1996, as he would start weeks later in the inaugural Dubai World Cup. But it did have Wekiva Springs, Star Standard, L'Carriere, and Mecke, so wasn't fully in descent. Those horses ran 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th, and were the four favorites.
Don't assume Derby horses haven't been 1 1/4 before
I'm doing some historical study, and I notice that in 1996, Gulfstream ran two 11 furlong maidens on the turf, for 3-year-olds only, as early as February 12. This almost seems like cheating, like having a piece of birthday cake before "Happy Birthday" has been sung. Granted, a Derby winner who hadn't won by February 12 would be an historical happening, let alone one who broke his maiden in a turf race at that late date, but I think Derby day should be the beginning of something (namely, 10 furlong+ races for that crop), just as opening day is in other sports. With the trend towards shorter distances, I probably don't have to worry too much about violations of this kind, whether committed with defiance or inadvertent.
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