How on earth did Hollywood players let McKenzies Way go off at 10-1 in the 6th yesterday, a nw1x which he summarily won? McKenzies Way had been off since a 4th-place run at Delaware in June, but was first time Mike Mitchell with Julien Leparoux up. To be honest, I thought 7-10 on Genius was more than fair value, but there were a couple of other horses in there at 7/2. McKenzies Way had back class, too, or at least "back talent." He'd broken his maiden in a big field at Del Mar easily in his second start and gone on to run a competitive 2nd to Premier Pegasus in the Jack Goodman.
I know that bettors are sometimes very reactive to trainer changes. If they are, Mike Mitchell should be prominent in their adjustments, but it seems like he is not. People need to understand that he doesn't just give horses little boosts. Betting his new trainees isn't like betting a horse who was wide last time out. He not infrequently gives horses makeovers. The DRF statistics support this well enough: a 34% winning percentage, and a $2.64 ROI first out from 142 starters.
It's possible that the Mitchell factor in the betting is muted when he is merely taking over a horse, which he did with McKenzies Way, rather than claiming him. The change is in the past performances in both cases, but is more at the front of the mind when it was a claim, and perhaps easier to spot in the past performances in that case as well.
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