In the Archwarrior post (to date the only one, and if this blog continues its spotlight on side topics, maybe always the only one), I wrote about my discomfiture making speed figures from just three races, while analysis tells me three races do not make for a much less accurate basis than a full card's worth.
One aspect in which this might not be true is probably for cases where the speed of the track changes during the card. By definition, then we no longer have the requisite three races to use. Patterns cannot be divined. Times do not support one another.
With a couple of races moved to the main track, Belmont had an uncharacteristic seven dirt races Sunday. And the times made it clear that one variant for all of them was untenable. The first four dirt races, all at a mile and including Dreaming of Julia's 1:36.46 clocking, suggested a track playing slightly on the slow side. The last three races were all of very cheap class, but went in 1:10.08, 1:10.88, and 1:23.61 (7f). That's a lightning-fast track, certainly for Belmont. The full-card variant says that Dreaming of Julia didn't run much faster than she did in her maiden win. The other three early mile races say she's about as solid a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly candidate as there is out there (which was certainly also the reflective reaction to her win).
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