PID Masters bettors seemed to be betting synthetic record, not graded-stakes record

For the second straight year, the betting on the Presque Isle Downs Masters was curious. By extension, and with a big field for the second straight year, it's a race that can be counted on to be a good betting race. Indeed, even with a 7-10 winner, the $2 trifecta paid $892.80.

Last year, the fans blew it letting winner and eventual Eclipse champion Musical Romance go off at almost 9-1after she was 7/2 on the morning line. This year, Salty Strike was dismissed at 21-1 after being listed at 5-1 on the morning line, but Salty Strike did not enjoy the success of Musical Romance, running 9th. While winner and betting favorite Groupie Doll took much more money than was predicted on the morning line, the horses with odds around Salty Strike's on the morning line were not dismissed the way she was. ML price is given first, followed by actual price.

Groupie Doll 2-1, 0.70-1
It's Me Mom 4-1, 4.80-1
Salty Strike 5-1, 21.40-1
Atlantic Hurricane 6-1, 7.90-1
Holiday for Kitten 8-1, 9.60-1
Kitty in a Tizzy 8-1, 18.80-1

Four-year-old Salty Strike was a grade III winner in 2011, had taken the GIII Gardenia last out, and taken three in a row overall. What stands out about her is an 0 for 1 record on synthetic before the Masters. I wouldn't have thought the fans would have emphasized that so much, but Salty Strike was unproven on the surface.

Atlantic Hurricane's recent form was equally strong, but she was a proven commodity on synthetic, winning three times in six starts on it with in-the-money finishes on the other occasions.

Holiday for Kitten is best described as a 5f and 5 1/2-furlong turf filly and has a career-best Beyer of just 89. However, her last two races on synthetic resulted in wins in the grade II Thoroughbred Club of America, and in the Giant's Causeway, a race where she beat older horses despite being a spring 3-year-old.

Kitty in a Tizzy's price is harder to figure, since she had won the grade III Chicago on synthetic in her last, and raced on the surface in all eight of her starts previous to that. Most likely, she just got lost in the cracks in the betting, and did not possess the intriguing early speed of It's Me Mom and Holiday for Kitten. With no wins in the 24 months prior to the Chicago, she also wasn't going to excite as a synthetic specialist, even if she was proven on it.

The weighting system for the PID Masters probably leaves something to be desired, with an undue focus on 2012 record, and whether the horse was a 2012 graded stakes winner. This system left Groupie Doll, Salty Strike, and Kitty in a Tizzy giving all of the rest at least 5 pounds. It's interesting to note that Salty Strike and Kitty in a Tizzy were the two horses the oddsmaker really misread.

Perhaps he or she was looking through the framework of graded stakes success jsut the way the weighting system did, and the fans did not care about graded stakes success. It would seem to be giving the fans a lot of credit to say that they weighed the weights heavily in their bets, while the oddsmaker did not, although I suppose that is possible.