The debut of the ballyhooed Archwarrior was certainly steeped in suspense, not any less so after he was scratched a couple of times. Figure makers (and actually, the figure-receiving public) received one more trial, since turf-race obsessed NYRA chose to run only two other dirt races yesterday, both maidens, and neither in Archwarrior's division. Running more turf races than dirt races on a card is standard for NYRA but makes me feel nostalgic and protective. I feel like vintage dirt racing is being taken away from us, and no one is talking about it.
Anyway, I don't feel this way emotionally, but my analysis is that you can make fairly accurate figures off of three races. If you're to draw a line between when you can responsibly and can't responsibly figure, three races is really how many you need.
Archwarrior's Beyer-scale number came out to 85.2 for me. That's a good number, there are no red flags there, and he's within reach of being a top 2-year-old, particularly if he improves with more distance. Basically, 85.2 might not usually enable a horse to factor, but times in the 2-year-old male stakes have been been poor so far this year. My faith in the number is bolstered by the previous day's variant rendering it an 84.4 -- very close to the 85.2 Thursday' s races gave me.
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