Stablemate pecking order isn't infallible

Grounds for comparing entrymates in maiden special weights are often quite factual. Assessing one horse vs. another in different barns is perhaps an apples to oranges process, but with horses from the same barn, we don't have to worry about whether a trainer usually works his horses quickly or slowly, and whether his mere name draws good riders. The trainer can be said to be removed as a variable. It's usually pretty clear which entrymate is the 'A' entrymate and which the 'B', and this is reflected in the betting. I've found that the appearance is almost always the reality.

But in Sunday's 6th at Del Mar, a 2-year-old filly maiden special weight, what looked like a decided advantage for one entrymate did not play out at all. The last three works for the Dan Hendricks duo of Christmas Secret and Miss Derek lined up. The most recent work was not a major speed trial, with both fillies getting in a a 47 4/5 gate work. But before that, Christmas Secret did not just beat Miss Derek, but apparently crushed her, recording a 1:11 4/5 to 1:13 1/5 advantage on July 19, and a 1:00 2/5 to 1:01 3/5 advantage on July 19. The public did not think the two fillies were close, making Christmas Secret the 2-1 favorite, and Miss Derek 22-1, the 9th choice of 10. Yet Christmas Secret never really got involved, while Trevor Denmark had Miss Derek a prominent part of the action in the stretch, before she checked in 4th by 1 1/2. If there was a sign the two fillies were more equal than the works indicated, the jockeys appeared a wash, with Alonso Quinonez , a 10% winner of 1.9 million this year, riding Christmas Secret, and Chantal Sutherland, a 12% winner of 1.8 million this year, riding Miss Derek.

What should we expect going forward? I wouldn't expect a big price on Christmas Secret next time; the half life on that 2.20-1 favoritism has got to be a race or two. I also wouldn't expect Christmas Secret to come back quickly. My guess is that something happened to her that didn't allow her to show what she can do. But Miss Derek's running well probably speaks very well for her talent, and I'd guess she can still be a very good filly.