Shug McGaughey's grade I record on dirt and turf and with males and females since 2001

When coaches with a history of success experience a reversal of fortune, a common rhetorical defense is, "Did such and such suddenly forget how to coach?" Like most rhetorical devices, this doesn't completely satisfy the other side, however, who may contend the coach wasn't what he was cracked up to be despite his previous winning, or has had the game pass him by.

I don't think anyone can question Shug McGaughey's overall capability as a trainer, but I have been nagged by questions about his record since his great run with the Phipps has slowed. Specifically, it seemed to me that he never gets a big colt and is therefore absent from the Derby picture.

I decided to look into this. I have Racing Manuals going back to the 2001 season. Since then, Shug McGaughey has had 13 grade I winners. With three males winning grade Is for him for the first time this year, McGaughey is now up to six grade I winning-males in the time period, just trailing his number of grade I-winning females.

But Hymn Book was McGaughey's first male to win a grade I on the dirt since Traditionally. Hymn Book has had a very nice couple of years consecutively now, but Traditionally not only didn't win any grade Is outside of the Oaklawn Handicap, but didn't even hit the board in his seven other stakes attempts. So the impact of these males winning grade Is on the dirt has been pretty light. By contrast, McGaughey has had six females win grade Is on the dirt in the "2001 to present" period: Serra Lake, Storm Flag Flying, Pleasant Home, Smuggler, Pine Island, and Persistently. The biggest deficit, actually, has been with his turf fillies and mares, at least at the grade I level: McGaughey doesn't have any grade I wins there. I don't know how long Hungry Island will race, but I think she still has a reasonable chance to break the streak. McGaughey has had four males win grade Is on turf: Point of Entry and Data Link this year, and Dancing Forever and Good Reward in years gone by.

I think we can agree that dirt horses confer more glory upon a trainer than turf horses, but the difference is more dramatic with males. With dirt males the quality of his dirt females, McGaughey would have been in the national spotlight more. But the grade I-winning dirt females show he can get grade I-winning dirt horses, and the grade I-winning turf males show he can get grade I-winning males (and today -- not just in the days of Easy Goer, Lure, and Dancing Spree). McGaughey just hasn't found males often in recent years who have been able to showcase his ability to train dirt horses and males. This is bad luck.

Two-year-olds (only 2-year-old grade I winner in the group was Storm Flag Flying 10 years ago) and sprinters (no grade I winners under a mile) are possible weak points, but for McGaughey to be more successful in any given division, the bottom line is he needs to develop more grade I winners total. The slowing of his torrid pace of grade I winners from the '90s probably best explains drop-offs in individual categories.