The debut of the ballyhooed Archwarrior was certainly steeped in suspense, not any less so after he was scratched a couple of times. Figure makers (and actually, the figure-receiving public) received one more trial, since turf-race obsessed NYRA chose to run only two other dirt races yesterday, both maidens, and neither in Archwarrior's division. Running more turf races than dirt races on a card is standard for NYRA but makes me feel nostalgic and protective. I feel like vintage dirt racing is being taken away from us, and no one is talking about it.
Anyway, I don't feel this way emotionally, but my analysis is that you can make fairly accurate figures off of three races. If you're to draw a line between when you can responsibly and can't responsibly figure, three races is really how many you need.
Archwarrior's Beyer-scale number came out to 85.2 for me. That's a good number, there are no red flags there, and he's within reach of being a top 2-year-old, particularly if he improves with more distance. Basically, 85.2 might not usually enable a horse to factor, but times in the 2-year-old male stakes have been been poor so far this year. My faith in the number is bolstered by the previous day's variant rendering it an 84.4 -- very close to the 85.2 Thursday' s races gave me.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Double Ante and Bwanadana: sneaky-good pedigrees, and a 58-1 stablemate beating a 7-2 one
I wrote a blog recently about lightly regarded stablemates getting the better of their fellow trainee. I don't know what Mike Mitchell expected, but an extreme example was in evidence from the public's point of view Wednesday when Mitchell's 58-1 Bwanadana came in 3rd, a couple of places better than 7-2 Mitchell firster Point Cadet in the 5th race at Del Mar. The race was for fillies and mares. Point Cadet is half sister to Point Given, by Distorted Humor, and cost $875,000 as a yearling. Bwanadana is by Bwana Charlie, who has hardly attained prominence. But on the female side, she certainly has a license, as half-sister Kilograeme went "maiden win, allowance win" as a 3-year-old at Santa Anita to begin her career before running 4th of 5 in the Santa Anita Oaks and not returning again. Dam K. O. Princess is also half sister to K. O. Punch, an outstanding 2-year-old in 1997 who kept "who's who" company. They don't make 2-year-olds like K. O. Punch any more, or maybe they just don't make D. Wayne Lukas any more.
Interestingly, Point Cadet had been drilled seriously for her debut (in other words, quickly), while Bwanadana had not, despite the common trainer. None of the recent works matched up by day and distance, however. There wasn't evidence that Point Cadet had been directly outworking Bwanadana, in other words.
Longshots defying their odds was the rule of the day, as My Dark Vada won at 40-1 in race 8. In the Bwanadana/Point Cadet race, 47-1 firster Double Ante not only won, but gave a promising performance. She broke slowly and seemingly a bit in the air to be 10th by 11 lengths after a quarter mile. Then, other than cases of bolting on the turn, she ran about as wide as I have seen an eventual winner run. But she was up to the task and full of run, getting up by a length and a quarter. The time wasn't even half bad. Even though Double Ante's dam, Deux Anes (GB), had produced the talented grade III-winning turfer Makeup Artist, at age 21 she wasn't going to be bred to Dynaformer again, but to a son with a much lower stud fee whose race record could be picked apart. So Double Ante is by Purim. Although Double Ante wouldn't have been included in my debut-winner study had I used this year's maidens since the race was for 3-year-olds and up, note that the pattern of a "behinder" winner paying an excitingly-high mutuel was duplicated.
Bouns points if in the title of the post you can figure out the pedigree connection to the thoroughly-discussed race 5 at Del Mar....
Interestingly, Point Cadet had been drilled seriously for her debut (in other words, quickly), while Bwanadana had not, despite the common trainer. None of the recent works matched up by day and distance, however. There wasn't evidence that Point Cadet had been directly outworking Bwanadana, in other words.
Longshots defying their odds was the rule of the day, as My Dark Vada won at 40-1 in race 8. In the Bwanadana/Point Cadet race, 47-1 firster Double Ante not only won, but gave a promising performance. She broke slowly and seemingly a bit in the air to be 10th by 11 lengths after a quarter mile. Then, other than cases of bolting on the turn, she ran about as wide as I have seen an eventual winner run. But she was up to the task and full of run, getting up by a length and a quarter. The time wasn't even half bad. Even though Double Ante's dam, Deux Anes (GB), had produced the talented grade III-winning turfer Makeup Artist, at age 21 she wasn't going to be bred to Dynaformer again, but to a son with a much lower stud fee whose race record could be picked apart. So Double Ante is by Purim. Although Double Ante wouldn't have been included in my debut-winner study had I used this year's maidens since the race was for 3-year-olds and up, note that the pattern of a "behinder" winner paying an excitingly-high mutuel was duplicated.
Bouns points if in the title of the post you can figure out the pedigree connection to the thoroughly-discussed race 5 at Del Mar....
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Track's fast, run-up's 200 feet...how is 1:35.28 the record at Del Mar?
I'm really surprised Del Mar hasn't had a mile race on Polytrack faster than 1:35.28 (set by Do It All, who won the Group II Zabeel Mile this year in Dubai). As Sunday's 1:59.54 Pacific Classic indicates, Del Mar can be plenty fast. Even around two two turns, 1:35 1/5 doesn't set the bar particularly high. And unlike for the track's other route distances on Polytrack, the mile distance is run with an extremely long run-up of 200 feet. The first quarter of the mile races is therefore usually very fast, as you would expect it to be. And unlike for Churchill's 6f races, which were listed as having a 100-foot run-up in the years before 2012, and a 180-foot run-up distance this year, that fast first quarter clearly aids the final time. I adjust the final times up on account of the run-up distance. Then after adjusting for the class of the races, they are still appearing in good light versus the mile-and-a-sixteenth races, even with the penalty I include for the long run-up distance. Also making the track record curious is that Del Mar breaks out mile races regularly -- frequently, even.
For there not to have been a mile faster than 1:35 1/5, the types of races being carded at a mile must be of low quality. It's interesting to me that a track can fall into not writing any good races at a certain distance, and probably without giving that a lot of thought. If there are no stakes at the Del Mar mile distance, though, or few, perhaps that is intentional to avoid the situation of the short run-up to the first turn. Come to think of it, maximizing the run to the first turn is probably the thinking behind the 200-foot run-up. But with 1:35.28 the record, I have to wonder how many allowances, and even how many maiden special weights and mid- and high-priced claimers, are even being written for a mile.
For there not to have been a mile faster than 1:35 1/5, the types of races being carded at a mile must be of low quality. It's interesting to me that a track can fall into not writing any good races at a certain distance, and probably without giving that a lot of thought. If there are no stakes at the Del Mar mile distance, though, or few, perhaps that is intentional to avoid the situation of the short run-up to the first turn. Come to think of it, maximizing the run to the first turn is probably the thinking behind the 200-foot run-up. But with 1:35.28 the record, I have to wonder how many allowances, and even how many maiden special weights and mid- and high-priced claimers, are even being written for a mile.
Shug McGaughey's grade I record on dirt and turf and with males and females since 2001
When coaches with a history of success experience a reversal of fortune, a common rhetorical defense is, "Did such and such suddenly forget how to coach?" Like most rhetorical devices, this doesn't completely satisfy the other side, however, who may contend the coach wasn't what he was cracked up to be despite his previous winning, or has had the game pass him by.
I don't think anyone can question Shug McGaughey's overall capability as a trainer, but I have been nagged by questions about his record since his great run with the Phipps has slowed. Specifically, it seemed to me that he never gets a big colt and is therefore absent from the Derby picture.
I decided to look into this. I have Racing Manuals going back to the 2001 season. Since then, Shug McGaughey has had 13 grade I winners. With three males winning grade Is for him for the first time this year, McGaughey is now up to six grade I winning-males in the time period, just trailing his number of grade I-winning females.
But Hymn Book was McGaughey's first male to win a grade I on the dirt since Traditionally. Hymn Book has had a very nice couple of years consecutively now, but Traditionally not only didn't win any grade Is outside of the Oaklawn Handicap, but didn't even hit the board in his seven other stakes attempts. So the impact of these males winning grade Is on the dirt has been pretty light. By contrast, McGaughey has had six females win grade Is on the dirt in the "2001 to present" period: Serra Lake, Storm Flag Flying, Pleasant Home, Smuggler, Pine Island, and Persistently. The biggest deficit, actually, has been with his turf fillies and mares, at least at the grade I level: McGaughey doesn't have any grade I wins there. I don't know how long Hungry Island will race, but I think she still has a reasonable chance to break the streak. McGaughey has had four males win grade Is on turf: Point of Entry and Data Link this year, and Dancing Forever and Good Reward in years gone by.
I think we can agree that dirt horses confer more glory upon a trainer than turf horses, but the difference is more dramatic with males. With dirt males the quality of his dirt females, McGaughey would have been in the national spotlight more. But the grade I-winning dirt females show he can get grade I-winning dirt horses, and the grade I-winning turf males show he can get grade I-winning males (and today -- not just in the days of Easy Goer, Lure, and Dancing Spree). McGaughey just hasn't found males often in recent years who have been able to showcase his ability to train dirt horses and males. This is bad luck.
Two-year-olds (only 2-year-old grade I winner in the group was Storm Flag Flying 10 years ago) and sprinters (no grade I winners under a mile) are possible weak points, but for McGaughey to be more successful in any given division, the bottom line is he needs to develop more grade I winners total. The slowing of his torrid pace of grade I winners from the '90s probably best explains drop-offs in individual categories.
I don't think anyone can question Shug McGaughey's overall capability as a trainer, but I have been nagged by questions about his record since his great run with the Phipps has slowed. Specifically, it seemed to me that he never gets a big colt and is therefore absent from the Derby picture.
I decided to look into this. I have Racing Manuals going back to the 2001 season. Since then, Shug McGaughey has had 13 grade I winners. With three males winning grade Is for him for the first time this year, McGaughey is now up to six grade I winning-males in the time period, just trailing his number of grade I-winning females.
But Hymn Book was McGaughey's first male to win a grade I on the dirt since Traditionally. Hymn Book has had a very nice couple of years consecutively now, but Traditionally not only didn't win any grade Is outside of the Oaklawn Handicap, but didn't even hit the board in his seven other stakes attempts. So the impact of these males winning grade Is on the dirt has been pretty light. By contrast, McGaughey has had six females win grade Is on the dirt in the "2001 to present" period: Serra Lake, Storm Flag Flying, Pleasant Home, Smuggler, Pine Island, and Persistently. The biggest deficit, actually, has been with his turf fillies and mares, at least at the grade I level: McGaughey doesn't have any grade I wins there. I don't know how long Hungry Island will race, but I think she still has a reasonable chance to break the streak. McGaughey has had four males win grade Is on turf: Point of Entry and Data Link this year, and Dancing Forever and Good Reward in years gone by.
I think we can agree that dirt horses confer more glory upon a trainer than turf horses, but the difference is more dramatic with males. With dirt males the quality of his dirt females, McGaughey would have been in the national spotlight more. But the grade I-winning dirt females show he can get grade I-winning dirt horses, and the grade I-winning turf males show he can get grade I-winning males (and today -- not just in the days of Easy Goer, Lure, and Dancing Spree). McGaughey just hasn't found males often in recent years who have been able to showcase his ability to train dirt horses and males. This is bad luck.
Two-year-olds (only 2-year-old grade I winner in the group was Storm Flag Flying 10 years ago) and sprinters (no grade I winners under a mile) are possible weak points, but for McGaughey to be more successful in any given division, the bottom line is he needs to develop more grade I winners total. The slowing of his torrid pace of grade I winners from the '90s probably best explains drop-offs in individual categories.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Other examples of Saratoga's being the place to claim
To follow up on the post about Our Entourage -- I think Desert Storm, who was claimed for $50,000 last Wednesday, had some of the same characteristics and could also be classified as a "class" claim. When he was 3rd at Churchill in his debut last November, I remember track announcer Mark Johnson singling him out for looking very good in the final stages as he seemed to be figuring things out. He never quite flashed ability in the same way again, but could still be said to be a tease, and until trying turf in his 7th start, never was out of the money. After that July 29 allowance, his first against winners, Mott worked him twice, suggesting he came out of the race o.k.
I think Mott and WinStar just gave up on him. I they just concluded he was never going to get much better. And I can't blame them for such a cold-eyed reading of the facts. But I still think he was a live horse running for $50,000, and presented some rare traits for a horse in a claimer. By Tiznow, he cost $440,000 as a weanling. He was 3rd by 3 3/4 in the race on Wednesday, likely coming out in the end with nearly exactly the same effort he normally does.
From Friday's card at Saratoga, Catinatree could not be described as possessing class incongruous of a claiming entrant, but she still struck me as out of place being up for a tag. She went off at 10-1 and was a badly beaten 6th in the alternate non-winners-of-two-other-than allowance, but Gary Contessa reached the same conclusion I did, rescuing her from the ignomy. Other than a victory, the only development that can soothe the sting of being in a claiming race is for someone to claim the horse. (Wait, I don't think horses know they are in claiming races.)
The interesting potential with Catinatree is that she has Beyers of 92 and 94 this year. Both were blowout wins, at Hawthorne and Parx, respectively. The first time she got a 90+ Beyer, it was another nw2x optional claimer, this time for only $35,000, and she went off at 28-1. So that race was really a bolt from the blue. The second 90+ Beyer (following Beyers of 59 and 82), had her only 5-1 in the July 1 Bed o'Roses, where she led for a half but did not run well.
There are horses for all tastes at Saratoga.
I think Mott and WinStar just gave up on him. I they just concluded he was never going to get much better. And I can't blame them for such a cold-eyed reading of the facts. But I still think he was a live horse running for $50,000, and presented some rare traits for a horse in a claimer. By Tiznow, he cost $440,000 as a weanling. He was 3rd by 3 3/4 in the race on Wednesday, likely coming out in the end with nearly exactly the same effort he normally does.
From Friday's card at Saratoga, Catinatree could not be described as possessing class incongruous of a claiming entrant, but she still struck me as out of place being up for a tag. She went off at 10-1 and was a badly beaten 6th in the alternate non-winners-of-two-other-than allowance, but Gary Contessa reached the same conclusion I did, rescuing her from the ignomy. Other than a victory, the only development that can soothe the sting of being in a claiming race is for someone to claim the horse. (Wait, I don't think horses know they are in claiming races.)
The interesting potential with Catinatree is that she has Beyers of 92 and 94 this year. Both were blowout wins, at Hawthorne and Parx, respectively. The first time she got a 90+ Beyer, it was another nw2x optional claimer, this time for only $35,000, and she went off at 28-1. So that race was really a bolt from the blue. The second 90+ Beyer (following Beyers of 59 and 82), had her only 5-1 in the July 1 Bed o'Roses, where she led for a half but did not run well.
There are horses for all tastes at Saratoga.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Heart of 3+up MSW at Saratoga presents easy throw-outs
It might be interesting to devise criteria for "a prospect." I would guess a prospect is a horse who has a chance of being a stakes winner, or maybe a graded stakes winner. One approach could be to list black marks that automatically mean the horse is not a prospect. One could be a certain number of starts without getting the first win.
Evem in races for 3-year-olds and up, Saratoga maiden special weights are places where you expect to find prospects. Yet in Monday's 1st, you had 0 for 10 Suns Out Guns Out beating 0 for 9 Tiz Yankee, with 0 for 13 Flashy Sunrise 3rd. When fans dream of a sturdier animal, this isn't the mold they have in mind.
Evem in races for 3-year-olds and up, Saratoga maiden special weights are places where you expect to find prospects. Yet in Monday's 1st, you had 0 for 10 Suns Out Guns Out beating 0 for 9 Tiz Yankee, with 0 for 13 Flashy Sunrise 3rd. When fans dream of a sturdier animal, this isn't the mold they have in mind.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Most classy 3-year-old claimer in a while -- Our Entourage
David Jacobson claimed Our Entourage for $65,000 from Sunday's 6th at Saratoga. It may be a very long time until we see another a 3-year-old with so much going for him in for a tag again. This horse just does not look to me like he belonged in a claiming race (the race was actually a newfangled starter/optional claimer, where he only got to run by utilizing the tag. So he wasn't so much in a claiming race, as in for a claiming price).
Despite some of the captious comments I make here, I'm actually a nice person, and at least when I'm playing Monopoly, I'll give the person I'm dealing with more than a fair deal. That's what Our Entourage in for a tag looked like; as if Mike Repole was recklessly acting against his self-interest by running him. As if this was a gift to other owners. An attempt to become more popular.
With four straight off-the-board finishes before Saturday's race, although three in stakes and none by as many as 6 lengths, Our Entourage's stock was not where it was after he took a February 25 allowance at Gulfstream on the heels of competitive 5ths in the Remsen and Breeders' Futurity. But he had worked twice since his race four weeks before, and twice after his race five weeks before that. He's by Street Cry out of millionaire grade I winner Sand Springs.
Certainly, there have been plenty of 3-year-old claimers as fast as Our Entourage in for a high-priced tag before. He ran 2nd in the race on Saturday, and was only a 2-1 favorite.
I guess what sets him apart for me is the class he seems to have. That can be a hard thing to put ones finger on, and if it's that subjective, I suppose I shouldn't react quite so strongly. But to me, this horse in a claiming race is like batteries inserted the wrong way. It just looks funny. If Our Entourage is an an allowance horse and not a claimer, he's not guaranteed to turn into a stakes horse. But for aspiring stakes owners, an allowance horse is a better place to start than a claiming horse.
Despite some of the captious comments I make here, I'm actually a nice person, and at least when I'm playing Monopoly, I'll give the person I'm dealing with more than a fair deal. That's what Our Entourage in for a tag looked like; as if Mike Repole was recklessly acting against his self-interest by running him. As if this was a gift to other owners. An attempt to become more popular.
With four straight off-the-board finishes before Saturday's race, although three in stakes and none by as many as 6 lengths, Our Entourage's stock was not where it was after he took a February 25 allowance at Gulfstream on the heels of competitive 5ths in the Remsen and Breeders' Futurity. But he had worked twice since his race four weeks before, and twice after his race five weeks before that. He's by Street Cry out of millionaire grade I winner Sand Springs.
Certainly, there have been plenty of 3-year-old claimers as fast as Our Entourage in for a high-priced tag before. He ran 2nd in the race on Saturday, and was only a 2-1 favorite.
I guess what sets him apart for me is the class he seems to have. That can be a hard thing to put ones finger on, and if it's that subjective, I suppose I shouldn't react quite so strongly. But to me, this horse in a claiming race is like batteries inserted the wrong way. It just looks funny. If Our Entourage is an an allowance horse and not a claimer, he's not guaranteed to turn into a stakes horse. But for aspiring stakes owners, an allowance horse is a better place to start than a claiming horse.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
The Alabama: a field that needed introduction
Tom Durkin needs to bone up on his race grades. In the Alabama, he called the Black-Eyed Susan and the Delaware Oaks grade Is. The Black-Eyed Susan was probably grade I for a few years, but many years ago. The Delaware Oaks probably offered a very large purse at one point (I guess it is offering one once again these days, come to think of it) but has been safely out of the grade I category for my 37 years, or at least the 31 or so that I've been a racing fan. This doesn't seem like the type of error a racing fan would make. So, did Durkin merely mean to say that Zo Impressive, In Lingerie, and Grace Hall were graded stakes winners, and accidentally said grade I winners? But why would he have been drawing special attention to graded stakes winners in a race like the Alabama?
Hollywood's announcer (or is that Betfair Hollywood's announcer?), Vic Stauffer, has added the "horse credential" element to his race calls this year (GRADE I winner Dancing in Silks has a neck on GRADE I winner Smiling Tiger). I hate the way Stauffer calls a race, merely filling names into his template. I tend to think he thinks people like what he does and chooses to do it that way, rather than that he lacks the ability to think on his feet. Although he exaggerates good performances, and sometimes even turns average wins into outstanding ones, he's actually not a bad watcher of races. But in any event, it would seem Durkin got the idea of burnishing the credentials of the Alabama's field from Stauffer.
On the topic of sports whoppers, though, I have to say that Durkin had nothing on New York Jets' announcer Greg Buttle last night, who said that Victor Cruz had once been cut by the Jets. Not only did he relate this, but he did so in detail, talking about Cruz's performance with the Jets, and how Cruz wasn't going to be able to make the Jets' team before he was jettisoned
It seemed unlikely on several fronts. When was the last time the Jets had a good wide receiver corps? That would certainly have to predate Eric Mangini, at least. They've generally been one of the easiest teams to make at wide receiver.
If Durkin had been calling the Jet game, though, I guess his whopper would have had Victor Cruz drafted. Maybe he'd be a fourth-round pick.
Hollywood's announcer (or is that Betfair Hollywood's announcer?), Vic Stauffer, has added the "horse credential" element to his race calls this year (GRADE I winner Dancing in Silks has a neck on GRADE I winner Smiling Tiger). I hate the way Stauffer calls a race, merely filling names into his template. I tend to think he thinks people like what he does and chooses to do it that way, rather than that he lacks the ability to think on his feet. Although he exaggerates good performances, and sometimes even turns average wins into outstanding ones, he's actually not a bad watcher of races. But in any event, it would seem Durkin got the idea of burnishing the credentials of the Alabama's field from Stauffer.
On the topic of sports whoppers, though, I have to say that Durkin had nothing on New York Jets' announcer Greg Buttle last night, who said that Victor Cruz had once been cut by the Jets. Not only did he relate this, but he did so in detail, talking about Cruz's performance with the Jets, and how Cruz wasn't going to be able to make the Jets' team before he was jettisoned
It seemed unlikely on several fronts. When was the last time the Jets had a good wide receiver corps? That would certainly have to predate Eric Mangini, at least. They've generally been one of the easiest teams to make at wide receiver.
If Durkin had been calling the Jet game, though, I guess his whopper would have had Victor Cruz drafted. Maybe he'd be a fourth-round pick.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Things about All Star Heart that don't compute
The idea of this blog is that horse racing numbers and reference-book-type data tell a story. Which isn't to say that they gave you the story; indeed, they are about as effective as watching television with the sound turned down, I would say. My appetite is whetted, but I think I'm missing something.
All Star Heart is certainly one who makes me want to know more. First, there's her breeding. How is an Ascot Knight filly out of an unraced Devil Begone mare, apparently without successful siblings and without a win above maiden claiming, bred to Arch? How does this filly begin her career running 3rd, 5th, 12th, 8th, 10th, 6th, and 5th, losing four times at Woodbine, and not only eventually break her maiden at Santa Anita, but win five more races in Southern California, including the grade II Las Palmas? All Star Heart is in the conversation today because she came a nose short in the John C. Mabee of winning her second grade II yesterday.
All Star Heart is certainly one who makes me want to know more. First, there's her breeding. How is an Ascot Knight filly out of an unraced Devil Begone mare, apparently without successful siblings and without a win above maiden claiming, bred to Arch? How does this filly begin her career running 3rd, 5th, 12th, 8th, 10th, 6th, and 5th, losing four times at Woodbine, and not only eventually break her maiden at Santa Anita, but win five more races in Southern California, including the grade II Las Palmas? All Star Heart is in the conversation today because she came a nose short in the John C. Mabee of winning her second grade II yesterday.
He's Had Enough not an idly chosen name
For shame, Del Mar bettors, letting the Reddam/O'Neill first-time starter with this name pay $20.60 Sunday. I don't think my imagination here is too far off the mark: the Reddams spending a good night or two thinking of a name which would be a good sequel to I'll Have Another, and then finding the right horse for it. Maybe they even knew this horse was special, and that started the special initiative to find a name. In any event, I have little doubt they were aching to bequeath this name -- wanted to spring it on the racing public and have it generate as much notice as possible.
If a whole slew of these plays on I'll Have Another have been coming out from the Reddam team, my apologies. They do campaign so many foreign horses they didn't name, it's possible the trend has eluded me.
Regardless, whether the name was a veritable clue or not, He's Had Enough was the goods. He won in terrible time, although that couldn't be said for the final 1/16th, but man was he powerful.
He qualified for a "behind" win, too, running 9th of 10 at the first call, if you remember my research piece. He fits the "behind" category trends beautifully, paying that good win mutuel, and not winning by a big margin.
He's a Tapit. One of his siblings is 5-year-old gelding Kindergarden Kid. Although claimed for $50,000 from his last start, Kindergarden Kid has had his moments, looking like he was maybe best when 4th (moved to 3rd via DQ) in this year's Grade III Ft. Lauderdale at Gulfstream.
Where the dam has really picked up since He's Had Enough sold for $200,000 last September, though, is with the 3-year-old filly Assateague, who's rung up good-margin turf wins in her last two at Keeneland Fall, and then off the layoff at Saratoga. She appeared a free-wheeling filly in her last and left the well-regarded Kitty Wine and Pianist in her wake.
There's some question, clearly, about whether He's Had Enough will play at Santa Anita on the dirt, and to get ahead of ourselves, in the Triple Crown picture. If turf is the only option at a track, I was wondering if Tapits could excel there. While Tapit is very much a dirt sire, he's had a couple of really nice turfers in Tapitsfly and Laragh, so I think they can.
Distance-wise, the quick read is that He's Had Enough will have no difficulty whatsoever.
If a whole slew of these plays on I'll Have Another have been coming out from the Reddam team, my apologies. They do campaign so many foreign horses they didn't name, it's possible the trend has eluded me.
Regardless, whether the name was a veritable clue or not, He's Had Enough was the goods. He won in terrible time, although that couldn't be said for the final 1/16th, but man was he powerful.
He qualified for a "behind" win, too, running 9th of 10 at the first call, if you remember my research piece. He fits the "behind" category trends beautifully, paying that good win mutuel, and not winning by a big margin.
He's a Tapit. One of his siblings is 5-year-old gelding Kindergarden Kid. Although claimed for $50,000 from his last start, Kindergarden Kid has had his moments, looking like he was maybe best when 4th (moved to 3rd via DQ) in this year's Grade III Ft. Lauderdale at Gulfstream.
Where the dam has really picked up since He's Had Enough sold for $200,000 last September, though, is with the 3-year-old filly Assateague, who's rung up good-margin turf wins in her last two at Keeneland Fall, and then off the layoff at Saratoga. She appeared a free-wheeling filly in her last and left the well-regarded Kitty Wine and Pianist in her wake.
There's some question, clearly, about whether He's Had Enough will play at Santa Anita on the dirt, and to get ahead of ourselves, in the Triple Crown picture. If turf is the only option at a track, I was wondering if Tapits could excel there. While Tapit is very much a dirt sire, he's had a couple of really nice turfers in Tapitsfly and Laragh, so I think they can.
Distance-wise, the quick read is that He's Had Enough will have no difficulty whatsoever.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Appeal of $150,000 maiden claimer mainly to 2-year-old buyers
This winter, I mentioned 2011's $150,000 maiden claimer for 2-year-old fillies at the spa. That post got a hit with this year's rendition being run on Monday. What stood out to me about the race this time was six of the eight fillies having sold as 2-year-olds (not surprisingly, all for under $150,000). The prices were probably fresh in the buyers' minds, while people who have a horse that's been in their hands since the horse was a yearling become removed from the horse's true value. The yearling buyer has more room to dream. Two-year-old buyers are practical people.
One could argue that the market's rating of yearlings is almost obsolete by the time the horses are 2-year-olds, train, and approach running That's a reasonable point of view. But certainly, many yearling buys are now worth less than $150,000. Yet, with the exception of a filly named Fierce, where were they in the specialty maiden claimer?
Why am I not surprised that the architect behind the lone yearling buy to $150,000 maiden claiming race transition was Wesley Ward? He has to be one of the more practical guys in racing. None the less because he was running Put It Back's half sib in the maiden claiming race and so flaunting the prestigious pedigree before anyone tempted.
One could argue that the market's rating of yearlings is almost obsolete by the time the horses are 2-year-olds, train, and approach running That's a reasonable point of view. But certainly, many yearling buys are now worth less than $150,000. Yet, with the exception of a filly named Fierce, where were they in the specialty maiden claimer?
Why am I not surprised that the architect behind the lone yearling buy to $150,000 maiden claiming race transition was Wesley Ward? He has to be one of the more practical guys in racing. None the less because he was running Put It Back's half sib in the maiden claiming race and so flaunting the prestigious pedigree before anyone tempted.
Wise Dan's 119 weighting in the Fourstardave: a failure to appreciate the texture in form
The weighting in the Fourstardave is some of the worst I have ever seen. There is simply no excuse for not having Wise Dan as the highweight. As a track handicapper, you can't be so mechanical about weighting horses. I guess what the guy is thinking is that Data Link (121 lbs) and Get Stormy (120 lbs) are both grade I winners on turf, while Wise Dan (119 lbs) is just a grade II winner on turf. But as every involved racing fan with half a brain and a fully functioning set of instincts knows, Wise Dan is twice the horse that Data Link is. (He is also twice the horse Get Stormy was at Get Stormy's zenith, which is over a year's past). Can't this track handicapper read the racing form? Or better yet, couldn't he actually follow racing and make critical assessments as campaigns develop, and then file them away for later use?
Poor Wise Dan, who's a question mark on the turf: in his first race on the surface, the 2011 Firecracker, he had failed to hit the board in his three previous starts, leading him to go off at 14-1. But he won the race hands down by almost 3 lengths.
Following a half-length win in the Presque Isle Mile on synthetic, he ran 1 1/4 lengths behind Get Stormy and 1 3/4 behind Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Turf Mile.
Then he got really good, with wins of 4, 3 3/4, and 10 1/2 in the Fayette, Clark, and Ben Ali, but it wasn't because he got off the turf! After all, he had been off the board three straight times at the beginning of the year on the same surfaces (Keeneland synthetic and Churchill Downs dirt) where he did his Best Pal impression.
Presumably, the handicapper has the approproiate respect for Wise Dan's current form. If he really wasn't as solid on turf, wouldn't he have run in the Whitney, where he could have perhaps put his connections in position to win the award for champion dirt horse, rather than running for two-thirds the money in a grade II?
Poor Wise Dan, who's a question mark on the turf: in his first race on the surface, the 2011 Firecracker, he had failed to hit the board in his three previous starts, leading him to go off at 14-1. But he won the race hands down by almost 3 lengths.
Following a half-length win in the Presque Isle Mile on synthetic, he ran 1 1/4 lengths behind Get Stormy and 1 3/4 behind Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Turf Mile.
Then he got really good, with wins of 4, 3 3/4, and 10 1/2 in the Fayette, Clark, and Ben Ali, but it wasn't because he got off the turf! After all, he had been off the board three straight times at the beginning of the year on the same surfaces (Keeneland synthetic and Churchill Downs dirt) where he did his Best Pal impression.
Presumably, the handicapper has the approproiate respect for Wise Dan's current form. If he really wasn't as solid on turf, wouldn't he have run in the Whitney, where he could have perhaps put his connections in position to win the award for champion dirt horse, rather than running for two-thirds the money in a grade II?
Trois indeed for Sadler when it comes to turf 3-year-old fillies
Only a nose loss in the Honeymoon deprives Lady of Shamrock of a six-race winning streak on turf, but don't sleep on a couple of other John Sadler 3-year-old fillies in the turf division, Trois Aureole and Unusual Hottie. Unusual Hottie just won on Sunday, while Trois Aureole hasn't competed since July 8, so it will be Trois Aureole's turn next.
Stablemate pecking order isn't infallible
Grounds for comparing entrymates in maiden special weights are often quite factual. Assessing one horse vs. another in different barns is perhaps an apples to oranges process, but with horses from the same barn, we don't have to worry about whether a trainer usually works his horses quickly or slowly, and whether his mere name draws good riders. The trainer can be said to be removed as a variable. It's usually pretty clear which entrymate is the 'A' entrymate and which the 'B', and this is reflected in the betting. I've found that the appearance is almost always the reality.
But in Sunday's 6th at Del Mar, a 2-year-old filly maiden special weight, what looked like a decided advantage for one entrymate did not play out at all. The last three works for the Dan Hendricks duo of Christmas Secret and Miss Derek lined up. The most recent work was not a major speed trial, with both fillies getting in a a 47 4/5 gate work. But before that, Christmas Secret did not just beat Miss Derek, but apparently crushed her, recording a 1:11 4/5 to 1:13 1/5 advantage on July 19, and a 1:00 2/5 to 1:01 3/5 advantage on July 19. The public did not think the two fillies were close, making Christmas Secret the 2-1 favorite, and Miss Derek 22-1, the 9th choice of 10. Yet Christmas Secret never really got involved, while Trevor Denmark had Miss Derek a prominent part of the action in the stretch, before she checked in 4th by 1 1/2. If there was a sign the two fillies were more equal than the works indicated, the jockeys appeared a wash, with Alonso Quinonez , a 10% winner of 1.9 million this year, riding Christmas Secret, and Chantal Sutherland, a 12% winner of 1.8 million this year, riding Miss Derek.
What should we expect going forward? I wouldn't expect a big price on Christmas Secret next time; the half life on that 2.20-1 favoritism has got to be a race or two. I also wouldn't expect Christmas Secret to come back quickly. My guess is that something happened to her that didn't allow her to show what she can do. But Miss Derek's running well probably speaks very well for her talent, and I'd guess she can still be a very good filly.
But in Sunday's 6th at Del Mar, a 2-year-old filly maiden special weight, what looked like a decided advantage for one entrymate did not play out at all. The last three works for the Dan Hendricks duo of Christmas Secret and Miss Derek lined up. The most recent work was not a major speed trial, with both fillies getting in a a 47 4/5 gate work. But before that, Christmas Secret did not just beat Miss Derek, but apparently crushed her, recording a 1:11 4/5 to 1:13 1/5 advantage on July 19, and a 1:00 2/5 to 1:01 3/5 advantage on July 19. The public did not think the two fillies were close, making Christmas Secret the 2-1 favorite, and Miss Derek 22-1, the 9th choice of 10. Yet Christmas Secret never really got involved, while Trevor Denmark had Miss Derek a prominent part of the action in the stretch, before she checked in 4th by 1 1/2. If there was a sign the two fillies were more equal than the works indicated, the jockeys appeared a wash, with Alonso Quinonez , a 10% winner of 1.9 million this year, riding Christmas Secret, and Chantal Sutherland, a 12% winner of 1.8 million this year, riding Miss Derek.
What should we expect going forward? I wouldn't expect a big price on Christmas Secret next time; the half life on that 2.20-1 favoritism has got to be a race or two. I also wouldn't expect Christmas Secret to come back quickly. My guess is that something happened to her that didn't allow her to show what she can do. But Miss Derek's running well probably speaks very well for her talent, and I'd guess she can still be a very good filly.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Street Cry: A sire of sires, in the true sense of the term?
Street Cry may be on his way towards getting a remarkable yield from his horses at stud. Street Sense hasn't had the year it looked like he would have in the spring, but I remain extremely bullish about him. He's sort of been like a baseball team that has had the bases loaded every inning but hasn't scored a lot of runs. He's siring very talented horses, who have either gotten hurt or not come though yet. The jury is still out, but I think there's a lot there, and I think this would be a great time to buy a Street Sense.
Street Hero retired soon after he won the Norfolk as a maiden. Street Boss wasn't far from being Eclipse Award sprinter (favored in the BC Sprint), but he was never at the center of the American racing landscape the way Street Sense was. These two will have to do more of their own work than Street Sense to make it, but both are distinguishing themselves. To cite two Street Heros in particular, I like Del Mar maiden winner Gabriel Charles, and I like Churchill's June 3rd-place finisher, Anyriderill Do, although he doesn't seem to be in training right now, or at least working. The positive impression is mostly created in whole, though; it just seems the Street Heros can run. Street Boss has had a couple of showstoppers just within the last week, as Pletcher's Top Tier Lass aired on the turf at Saratoga last Monday, and Capo Bastone gave signs of being very good in a first-out score at Del Mar on Saturday.
What's intriguing is that Street Cry's 7th crop is only coming to the races right now. At least in North America, he doesn't have any right to be establishing a foothold as a sire of sires: I believe Street Sense, Street Boss, and Street Hero comprise his first opportunity. It's certainly too early with Street Boss and Street Hero to honestly say that the potential for Street Cry to be a rare sire of sires is apparent. But in my opinion, if as an investor in the breeding game, you don't use some imagination, you'll always be too late to the the dance.
Street Hero retired soon after he won the Norfolk as a maiden. Street Boss wasn't far from being Eclipse Award sprinter (favored in the BC Sprint), but he was never at the center of the American racing landscape the way Street Sense was. These two will have to do more of their own work than Street Sense to make it, but both are distinguishing themselves. To cite two Street Heros in particular, I like Del Mar maiden winner Gabriel Charles, and I like Churchill's June 3rd-place finisher, Anyriderill Do, although he doesn't seem to be in training right now, or at least working. The positive impression is mostly created in whole, though; it just seems the Street Heros can run. Street Boss has had a couple of showstoppers just within the last week, as Pletcher's Top Tier Lass aired on the turf at Saratoga last Monday, and Capo Bastone gave signs of being very good in a first-out score at Del Mar on Saturday.
What's intriguing is that Street Cry's 7th crop is only coming to the races right now. At least in North America, he doesn't have any right to be establishing a foothold as a sire of sires: I believe Street Sense, Street Boss, and Street Hero comprise his first opportunity. It's certainly too early with Street Boss and Street Hero to honestly say that the potential for Street Cry to be a rare sire of sires is apparent. But in my opinion, if as an investor in the breeding game, you don't use some imagination, you'll always be too late to the the dance.
A glut of Darley newcomers out of A.P. Indy mares
Darley seems to be trying to amass A.P. Indy mares and horses out of A. P. Indy mares. They started three such first-time starters at Saratoga on Saturday: Fortify, who was a clear winner; Joking, who finished resolutely and ran a close 3rd; and Thane, who ran 4th. Then at Del Mar on Saturday, they had another first-time starter out of an A. P. Indy mare, Modern, who checked in 3rd. Three different sires were represented among the four horses: Fortify and Joking, who did the best of the four, are both by Distorted Humor, while Thane is by Medaglia d'Oro, and Modern by Tiznow. Thane is particularly interesting to me, because he suggests the effort extends to yearling buys; the other three are homebreds.
The question is, what is Darley up to? The strategy would be more coherent if all of the A.P. Indy mares were being bred to one stallion, like Distorted Humor, but Modern shows they are not. Maybe Distorted Humor will get the bulk of the A.P. Indy mares, but it's not an exclusive deal.
The other head scratcher is that I didn't know A.P. Indy was a particularly outstanding broodmare sire; I remembered a post I wrote, quoting his percentage of stakes winners from foals, and it was 5.2%. I found a number of sires higher than that. You'd want to revolve your breeding strategy around the best broodmare sire you could, if you were going to focus on it.
The question is, what is Darley up to? The strategy would be more coherent if all of the A.P. Indy mares were being bred to one stallion, like Distorted Humor, but Modern shows they are not. Maybe Distorted Humor will get the bulk of the A.P. Indy mares, but it's not an exclusive deal.
The other head scratcher is that I didn't know A.P. Indy was a particularly outstanding broodmare sire; I remembered a post I wrote, quoting his percentage of stakes winners from foals, and it was 5.2%. I found a number of sires higher than that. You'd want to revolve your breeding strategy around the best broodmare sire you could, if you were going to focus on it.
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