Sunday, April 8, 2012
Less elusive than some easter eggs: a $100,000 stakes winner offering 56-1 for his return in an allowance
As a Rodney Dangerfield horse, Dr. Diamonds Prize has nothing on Golden Yank. Making his 2012 debut at Keeneland in a 7.28-furlong money allowance at Keeneland on Friday, he finished 2nd, after having been dismissed at 56-1. The odd juxtaposition here was that Golden Yank had won a $100,000 stake when last seen -- the Unbridled at Louisiana Downs on Super Derby day (yes, 2011 Super Derby day). I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but I'm willing to accept that all $100,000 stakes are not created equal, with an edge for the ones at better tracks, but the disregard with which Golden Yank was held was ridiculous. He looked less attractive because the Unbridled was on turf but 1) there's almost not enough difference between turf form and synthetic form to worry about it 2) Golden Yank is nothing to sneeze at away from turf, since going into Friday's race, he had made $694,367 of his career $840,611 away from there.
Dr. Diamonds Prize: a Keeneland horse, a synthetic horse, or an improving horse?
After Dr. Diamonds Prize won a nw3x/80k optional claimer allowance at Keeneland on Ftiday, paying $40.00, it's clear surface is an issue with her. This is a positive; her dirt races have obscured her true ability. The question is if she's just a Keeneland specialist, or partial to synthetic surfaces in general.
The pay-out on Friday was eye-opening, because the last time she was seen at Keeneland, she led the Raven Run until the final yards at 76-1, ending up 3rd by a half, although vacating 3rd place officially to Mizdirection after a disqualification. Oddly, this was not the only time Mizdirection had been disqualified, and not the only time she had been moved to 4th; she finished 1st in an allowance at PID last year, only to suffer the same fate.
Throwing out the disqualifications, this looked like a synthetic horse, even before Friday's race: 5 2 2 1 (never out of the money) on synthetic; 9 2 1 2 otherwise. The only "official" win on synthetic before Friday came in the Gowell Stakes when she was 2, and she pretty much walked away with it, winning by 4 with a promising 81 Beyer. So her Keeneland form isn't necessarily any better than any her non-Keeneland, synthetic form.
Although she's consistently part of the pace at any distance, 7f might be more Dr. Diamonds Prize's game than the extreme sprints of less than 6f. Seven furlongs at Keeneland is certainly the safest way to go with her, although if she tries it enough, she's almost sure to run a bad race eventually. But whether she can also transfer these surprise races to the extreme sprints, or to turf, is unclear from her past performances. The first place for her to branch out is definitely staying on synthetic, and some branching out is going to be necessarily given the short length of the Keeneland meet.
The pay-out on Friday was eye-opening, because the last time she was seen at Keeneland, she led the Raven Run until the final yards at 76-1, ending up 3rd by a half, although vacating 3rd place officially to Mizdirection after a disqualification. Oddly, this was not the only time Mizdirection had been disqualified, and not the only time she had been moved to 4th; she finished 1st in an allowance at PID last year, only to suffer the same fate.
Throwing out the disqualifications, this looked like a synthetic horse, even before Friday's race: 5 2 2 1 (never out of the money) on synthetic; 9 2 1 2 otherwise. The only "official" win on synthetic before Friday came in the Gowell Stakes when she was 2, and she pretty much walked away with it, winning by 4 with a promising 81 Beyer. So her Keeneland form isn't necessarily any better than any her non-Keeneland, synthetic form.
Although she's consistently part of the pace at any distance, 7f might be more Dr. Diamonds Prize's game than the extreme sprints of less than 6f. Seven furlongs at Keeneland is certainly the safest way to go with her, although if she tries it enough, she's almost sure to run a bad race eventually. But whether she can also transfer these surprise races to the extreme sprints, or to turf, is unclear from her past performances. The first place for her to branch out is definitely staying on synthetic, and some branching out is going to be necessarily given the short length of the Keeneland meet.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The Derby graded-stakes drive: they're not going where the money is
The astronomical money that is being given out for weak Derby prep races like this year's Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial reminds me of a philanthropist throwing away a lot of money just for the gesture and public relations without really researching the charities he is benefiting. These races are true plunders. They seem to show that the 3-year-olds are exceptionally weak, to repeat my opening sentence adjective. But then the Santa Anita Derby is a completely different story. It's a compelling and deep race with impressive established horses and non-established potential stars. I understand it's an undertaking to ship east, and that Derby schedules are best planned in adnavced, and the California trainers didn't know how weak the Louisiana Derby and Wood would be. But it still doesn't seem to quite make sense that, for less money, the Santa Anita Derby has eight of the 10 best horses putting together Wood and Santa Anita Derby. My top 10 would be something like this.
1. Creative Cause
2. I'll Have Another
3. Midnight Transfer
4. Gemologist
5. Liaison
6. Alpha
7. Holy Candy
8. Brother Francis
9. Paynter
10. Longview Drive
Before you protest too strongly, Street Life is 4-1 on the morning line in the Wood, with a best Beyer of 85. He seems to have been shifted to Aqueduct two starts ago because he wasn't good enough to compete in Gulfstream maiden special weights. That's a bit of speculation, but not without merit.
Usually, when I make these kinds of over-the-top statements, they're just what is needed to send Wood Memorial graduates on to a Derby exacta or some such thing. The Wood horses will need the complete blessing of the racing gods (or, should I say, the grace of my wrath), for such a thing to happen, however.
1. Creative Cause
2. I'll Have Another
3. Midnight Transfer
4. Gemologist
5. Liaison
6. Alpha
7. Holy Candy
8. Brother Francis
9. Paynter
10. Longview Drive
Before you protest too strongly, Street Life is 4-1 on the morning line in the Wood, with a best Beyer of 85. He seems to have been shifted to Aqueduct two starts ago because he wasn't good enough to compete in Gulfstream maiden special weights. That's a bit of speculation, but not without merit.
Usually, when I make these kinds of over-the-top statements, they're just what is needed to send Wood Memorial graduates on to a Derby exacta or some such thing. The Wood horses will need the complete blessing of the racing gods (or, should I say, the grace of my wrath), for such a thing to happen, however.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Nice effort in Muniz by Joinem
Big race by 28-1 Joinem to be 3rd in the Mervyn Muniz despite going against the pace and going wide. He kept firing all the way to the wire. The time of the race wasn't bad, either, so I think it was a better race than longshots making up the tri might make you think. Joinem will be tough going forward if he can repeat this race. I suppose he was a promising horse to start off his career, and maybe he's getting back to that.
Is Look At the Time the next Star Guitar?
Star Guitar had a close call today against his rival Populist Politics, but ran his winning streak to nine and his career mark to 23 of 29. 29 23 0 2; it looks like something out of this black-covered book I had as a kid that had all of the Hall of Famer's records in it.
Earlier on the card, fellow Lousiana-bred Look At the Time finished first for the fourth time in four races. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from hid first race, so he had to do his maiden twice. His career past performances are very unusual because he hasn't even had a close call yet, winning by 4 1/4, 2 3/4, 3 1/4, and today, 3 1/2 in the Crescent City Derby. He certainly doesn't have the Beyers that Star Guitar has, or even the Beyers Star Guitar had as an early 3-year-old. He does perhaps have upside on the turf that hasn't been fully explored yet; he won one of his races there, and that's what he's bred to do, being by Brahms out of an Alysheba mare. I know I was underwhelmed by his time in his win on turf, however. I'd love it if Look At the Time became a local star and eventually challenged on the national front, but if trainer Wesley Hawley and company follow the example set by Star Guitar's connections (trainer is Al Stall), they'll be realistic with him. The comparison between the two does break down, because Star Guitar has never been on the turf.
Earlier on the card, fellow Lousiana-bred Look At the Time finished first for the fourth time in four races. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from hid first race, so he had to do his maiden twice. His career past performances are very unusual because he hasn't even had a close call yet, winning by 4 1/4, 2 3/4, 3 1/4, and today, 3 1/2 in the Crescent City Derby. He certainly doesn't have the Beyers that Star Guitar has, or even the Beyers Star Guitar had as an early 3-year-old. He does perhaps have upside on the turf that hasn't been fully explored yet; he won one of his races there, and that's what he's bred to do, being by Brahms out of an Alysheba mare. I know I was underwhelmed by his time in his win on turf, however. I'd love it if Look At the Time became a local star and eventually challenged on the national front, but if trainer Wesley Hawley and company follow the example set by Star Guitar's connections (trainer is Al Stall), they'll be realistic with him. The comparison between the two does break down, because Star Guitar has never been on the turf.
Gelding proportion as a marker of prestige in Dubai: middle-distance, synthetic the valued entities
I noticed something else about the horses in the Al Quoz Sprint: all 11 were geldings! This seemed so strange to me that I even checked the conditions, to make sure being a gelding wasn't a requirement (it would be a strange condition of the race, because the winner, Ortensia, was a mare). It turned out that the proportion of geldings differed greatly by race: 1 of 12 males was a gelding in the Godolphin Mile; 3 of 13 in the Gold Cup; 1 of 12 in the UAE Derby; 6 of 12 in the Golden Shaheen; 6 of 15 in the Duty Free; 4 of 9 in the Sheema Classic; and 2 of 13 in the World Cup.
Are we to take from this that, despite the (by way of comparison to the other races) lowly $1,000,000 purse, the Mile is in a way the most prestigious race, with horses groomed for success early in their careers? A mile is certainly a prestigious distance, probably even more so outside the U.S. than in the U.S. Then there is a certain commonality in the Golden Shaheen having the second highest proportion of geldings after the Al Quoz Sprint, since it is another sprint. If we again take the proportion of geldings to indicate prestige, it seems odd that sprinting would be taken with so little seriousness, but mile races so glamorized. Both require speed, and my informal review of ex-sprinter stallions is that they do very well in this day and age.
There also seems a trend of the races on the synthetic having fewer geldings than the races on turf (21% to 49%; the gelding percentage in the turf races was 33% even without the gelding-universal Al Quoz Sprint). This seems quite strange to me. Surely the horse industry realizes by now that synthetic racing is similar to turf racing and does not particularly reward the speed that is so valuable at stud? It seems odd that owners would be trying to make stallions by having them win on synthetic. I suppose that makes sense only from the standpoint that a synthetic win is something new to add to the resume for a lot of international horses.
The UAE Derby was probably colt-filled because it generally takes a certain amount of precocity to have the resume for the race: horses that are gelded are often backwards, and not on the path to such a race.
Gelding/non-gelding practices probably differ by country, and some races logically had some countries represented in higher proportion than others. But something of that nature was not behind the Al Quoz Sprint phenomenon, as five of the eleven geldings in the race were bred in the southern hemisphere, and six in the northern hemisphere.
Are we to take from this that, despite the (by way of comparison to the other races) lowly $1,000,000 purse, the Mile is in a way the most prestigious race, with horses groomed for success early in their careers? A mile is certainly a prestigious distance, probably even more so outside the U.S. than in the U.S. Then there is a certain commonality in the Golden Shaheen having the second highest proportion of geldings after the Al Quoz Sprint, since it is another sprint. If we again take the proportion of geldings to indicate prestige, it seems odd that sprinting would be taken with so little seriousness, but mile races so glamorized. Both require speed, and my informal review of ex-sprinter stallions is that they do very well in this day and age.
There also seems a trend of the races on the synthetic having fewer geldings than the races on turf (21% to 49%; the gelding percentage in the turf races was 33% even without the gelding-universal Al Quoz Sprint). This seems quite strange to me. Surely the horse industry realizes by now that synthetic racing is similar to turf racing and does not particularly reward the speed that is so valuable at stud? It seems odd that owners would be trying to make stallions by having them win on synthetic. I suppose that makes sense only from the standpoint that a synthetic win is something new to add to the resume for a lot of international horses.
The UAE Derby was probably colt-filled because it generally takes a certain amount of precocity to have the resume for the race: horses that are gelded are often backwards, and not on the path to such a race.
Gelding/non-gelding practices probably differ by country, and some races logically had some countries represented in higher proportion than others. But something of that nature was not behind the Al Quoz Sprint phenomenon, as five of the eleven geldings in the race were bred in the southern hemisphere, and six in the northern hemisphere.
Al Quoz Sprint leaves little doubt about older horses' suitability
In another post (http://www.reflectionsonaracingform.blogspot.com/2011/10/calculating-jimmy-very-vibrant-8-year.html), I said that Calculating Jimmy's staying power as a need-the-lead sprinter was surprising. But in the Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup day, I noticed that the field of 15 included two 9-year-olds and four 7-year-olds, for an average age of 6.2 and a median age of 6. The older horses were particularly well-represented among the race's heroes, with 7-year-old Ortensia winning, and 9-year-old Joy And Fun 3rd. It appears that sprinting on the turf is exactly what older horses want to do.
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