Sunday, April 8, 2012

Dr. Diamonds Prize: a Keeneland horse, a synthetic horse, or an improving horse?

After Dr. Diamonds Prize won a nw3x/80k optional claimer allowance at Keeneland on Ftiday, paying $40.00, it's clear surface is an issue with her. This is a positive; her dirt races have obscured her true ability. The question is if she's just a Keeneland specialist, or partial to synthetic surfaces in general.

The pay-out on Friday was eye-opening, because the last time she was seen at Keeneland, she led the Raven Run until the final yards at 76-1, ending up 3rd by a half, although vacating 3rd place officially to Mizdirection after a disqualification. Oddly, this was not the only time Mizdirection had been disqualified, and not the only time she had been moved to 4th; she finished 1st in an allowance at PID last year, only to suffer the same fate.

Throwing out the disqualifications, this looked like a synthetic horse, even before Friday's race: 5 2 2 1 (never out of the money) on synthetic; 9 2 1 2 otherwise. The only "official" win on synthetic before Friday came in the Gowell Stakes when she was 2, and she pretty much walked away with it, winning by 4 with a promising 81 Beyer. So her Keeneland form isn't necessarily any better than any her non-Keeneland, synthetic form.

Although she's consistently part of the pace at any distance, 7f might be more Dr. Diamonds Prize's game than the extreme sprints of less than 6f. Seven furlongs at Keeneland is certainly the safest way to go with her, although if she tries it enough, she's almost sure to run a bad race eventually. But whether she can also transfer these surprise races to the extreme sprints, or to turf, is unclear from her past performances. The first place for her to branch out is definitely staying on synthetic, and some branching out is going to be necessarily given the short length of the Keeneland meet.

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