Wednesday, January 11, 2012

All Heavenly Landing needed was a chance

Heavenly Landing made the jump from allowances to grade III winner at Gulfstream Saturday in the Marshua's River and paid $40.80 to her supporters. In my mind, she was the prototype for a live horse of this model. At 2 she won first out by 3 lengths at Saratoga with a very good 82 Beyer, which set her up for the Matron. She was 5th that day then ran only once more through her 3-year-old season. Last year at 4, most of her performances were respectable but not even remotely suggestive of stardom. She was still looking for her second win when put on the turf in the Keeneland fall meet. Bang, she registered a 2 1/2 length win. Her next race was a 1 1/4 length win at Churchill in a non-winners-of-two-other-than allowance.

What I like about those wins is that they were "open-length" wins -- by more than a length. The Beyers of just 80 and 83 triggered the 19-1 odds in the Marshua River, but when a horse wins by open lengths on the turf, those are floors for the horse's ability, not the most accurate estimates. The wins came against big fields, too, which I like.

When handicapping, my father used to talk about "proven bums" and horses who had potential. Heavenly Landing had all her possibilities in front of her. She had done absolutely nothing wrong on the turf, and there was that first race as a 2-year-old, too, making the turf renaissance less surprising. She has a nice pedigree, with more than a little turf license, being by Pulpit out of a Woodman mare, Peace River Lady. All of the dams three wins came on turf, and Peace River Lady was 2nd in the grade III Regret there.

I thought Heavenly Landing's win on Saturday was sufficiently eye catching to think she will continue to be a factor at at least the grade III level. I'm not sure she will be underappreciated for much longer, however.

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