Thursday, January 12, 2012

I've seen this before: Pletcher wins turf allowance for 3-year-old right after75k maiden claiming win

I'm sure I'm not the first person to point this out, but it was something last weekend to see Todd Pletcher win both first-level allowances for 3-year-olds on the turf with horses fresh out of $75,000 maiden claiming wins. Medolina took the fillies division on Saturday, and Star Channel the boys division on Sunday. Track announcer Larry Collmus broke out of his normal call to acknowledge Medolina's performance; I'm a tough grader, and I saw something impressive there, too. She won her debut by 6 lengths, and this one by 3 1/2 lengths, so she can certainly be said to be unchallenged as of yet.

Star Channel's margins have not been as gaudy, but 3 1/4 and 1-length wins are nothing to sneeze at on the turf. He beat the much better field over the weekend. Unlike with Medolina, he was not sneaked into the maiden claiming race; he ran 10th of 11 in a maiden special weight on the turf in his debut, then added blinkers when a different horse in the December win.

Both Medolina and Star Channel have class in their pedigrees, but they would not have stuck out for their pedigrees in a $75,000 maiden claimer. Star Channel is the better bred; his dam, Reach the Top, was a grade III winner, and produced grade III winner and $394,000 earner, Changing World. The jury is still out on Star Channel's sire, English Channel, while Medolina's sire, Aragorn, must be said to have been disappointing, or at least not to have found his niche.

But, as suggested before, Medolina is not truly off-bred (and her breeders Wertheimer et Frere don't really do off-bred in my observation). Her dam, Melody Maiden, won $96,000 in 16 starts and ran 3rd in a stake. Her 3rd dam is the 2nd dam of Flawlessly, and her 4th dam is Cosmah. Being by Saint Ballado, Melody Maiden was in-bred 3x3 to Cosmah.

Often when you see maiden claiming winners return and win allowances, it indicates a thin group of non-winners-of-one-other-than horses at a track. I don't think that was the main factor behind Medolina's and Star Channel's wins. I think they were uncommonly good runners for a $75,000 maiden claiming race.

A question is what this placement says, if anything, about Pletcher. His stable is so good, it's pretty much a given that he's always going to have a better horse in a division than the one he's running. This leads to realism, and possibly even to underrating ones own horses. On the other hand, unlike Eddie Kenneally and Steve Asmussen, I've not see him be aggressive by and large with maiden claimers. If you were to ask him about both Medolina and Star Channel now, my guess is he would say that he knew Medolina was too good for that maiden claimer, but he thought he would get away with it, and she's still surprised him with how good she's been. Star Channel may have surprised him, too, but Pletcher would probably stand by that $75,000 maiden claiming race entry for him; I doubt Pletcher sees him yet as a stakes horses. If a horse isn't going to be a stakes horse, the thinking goes, you don't regret running in maiden claiming races. You are just trying to win races.

Jodi Kantor, who just came out with The Obamas, has been criticized for guessing Barack's and Michelle's trains of thought. Certainly, I have done the same here with Pletcher. But it's a fun game, isn't it?

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