In estimating Saturday's speed figures at Santa Anita, the 1st race, a 32-28 3-year-old claimer at 6.5 furlongs that came off the turf, went much faster than I expected. A horse named Daylight Magic won by a length-and-a-half in a six-horse field. Partly because all races were off the turf, 6.5 furlongs was a popular distance Saturday, and Daylight Magic (1:15.59) outran 12.5k nw2l claimers (1:16.61), nw1x allowance older fillies and mares (1:15.77) and Mizdirection (1:16.50), winner of the depleted 100k Las Cienegas (1:16.50). Only 3-year-old off-turf maiden winner, Chickie Charms, who had what I call "good margins," ran faster (1:15.50). Daylight Magic was the rank outsider in his race (18-1 while no one else of the six was over 6-1), but he is 2 for 2 in his career, suggesting he can be something.
I have heard of his trainer, Caesar Dominguez. Dominguez has won almost 500 races, but when I saw he had won just once in 43 starts this year, almost all of the action coming at Santa Anita, I thought the story gained a dimension.
Since I had heard of Dominguez despite his tough 2012, I availed myself of equibase's handy trainer stats to find out exactly why. I found the year-by-year numbers for Dominguez fascinating. He has maintained what could be called steady business for over 20 years, never earning more than $1,213,321 in a year (1999) but only being under $300,000 three times ('05, '06, and '11). The numbers could well be yearly revenue numbers for a more conventional business. I would have thought that a big horse here and there would have prevented distinct patterns from emerging, but while Dominguez has never really fallen off the table, his business of recent years is clearly in a different phase than it was. His earnings were at least $569,000 for every year from 1991 to 2003, and have been less than that for every year since, while still averaging a respectable $316,203 from 2004 to 2011. The biggest drop-off has been in his number of starts, which was as high as 392 in 1993. His average was 291 starts per year from 1992 to 1996, 188 per year from 1997 to 2003, and 107 per year from '04 to '11. His earnings per start are down, but down much less: they were $3,533 for his career before 2004, and $2,955 per start from '04 - '11. The actual drop is certainly more once inflation is considered. But a drop in winning percentage to 9.9% from '04 - '11 (compared to 12.5% before '11), suggests that the drop-off in earnings entirely results from winning less, not from losing higher quality horses.
Turning from Dominguez to Daylight Magic's sire, Awesome Gambler: thanks to this year's Santa Anita Oaks winner Willa B Awesome, the picture is bright. Willa B Awesome and Daylight Magic are from the first crop of Awesome Gamblers. Who would have thought a son of Coronado's Quest, just a $50,000 yearling, with ordinary female family, no graded black type on the tracj, and less than $100,000 in career earnings, would be making something of an impact at stud? I do remember thinking he was impressive when he won the Alydar at Hollywood at 3, to general skepticism among my peers.
Unfortunately for him, Dominguez doesn't train Willa B Awesome, but he did train Awesome Gambler, and maybe that one's unlikely siring ability will provide Dominguez with the big horse who has apparently proven elusive? Much as Dominguez's steady earnings are comforting to the statistician, I wouldn't mind seeing them get a jolt.
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