Silent Predator: MSW winner Belmont 2000, then winless in 29 more races, with less than $1000/start

I'm not sure if I've said so explicitly, but I'm in the process of studying debut winners, specifically what happens to them. I don't know if I've seen a more hapless future for a debut winner in my study than the one that awaited Silent Predator. He took his debut as a 2-year-old at Belmont Park in June, in open company, at the maiden special weight level. He finished his career 1 for 30. After the maiden win, his earnings totaled less than $19,000. It's odd that a horse could show himself so cheap for his career, yet run one race that was relatively good, or at least relatively lucky. It is also true that when the first race is an outlier, it is more likely to result in a win of commensurate class. If a horse runs an atypical race mid-career, unless the trainer has made a brilliant move and has anticipated the career race, the race is likely to be wasted in a blowout win. Because level of ability is not well known for a horse's debut, and connections therefore tend to be conservative and hope for the best, many horses start at the maiden special weight level who don't really measure up to that. If the horse wins, as Silent Predator did, they probably just conclude the were wrong and blithely underrated the horse. Sometimes the stars have just aligned, though, if in a much less financially advantageous way than for a Kentucky Derby or a stakes race.

It certainly happens sometimes that a horse's first race is its best. Most of these horses, however, do not run 30 times, and most are not campaigned as if nothing is wrong. Usually, the horse faces a long layoff in the early stages of its career and presumably cannot physically do what he or she did in the debut.

Not only did Silent Predator never win after his first race, but he was only 2nd in two of the remaining 29 starts, making him quite the rare non-factor. He was 3rd four times. None of the placings occurred at the NYRA tracks, where he made eight of his nine starts after the debut win. He ran through age 5, making his last 16 starts at Charles Town.

One thing I've noticed that has surprised me is that horses who defy their pedigrees and win sprinting in their first races do not seem to have unusually bright futures. I wrote a post about one or two of these horses who got hurt and didn't get to show what they could do, but whatever the particulars, I've seen many of these kinds of horses never get untracked. Maybe a good dirt sprinter who doesn't figure to be that is sort of like a good-looking horse who doesn't look like its sire, and the ability demonstrated isn't really the best of signs.

Silent Predator was a Quiet American. A Quiet American who can win first out at 5f would seem to have a bright future, but maybe that's not proper thinking.