The first-out winner of Sunday's race, Awesome Overture, is an obvious candidate, but I think I like River Rush, who finished full of run to be 2nd, even better. I even liked this horse after his first race; he finished 8th by 8 1/2 at Gulfstream, but had what I noted was the "absolute trip from hell." (A bit odd to be quoting my notes; what am I going to do, accuse myself of plagiarism?) He's by Orientate, and that doesn't make you think a mile and a quarter, but his broodmare sire is Lemon Drop Kid; the sire of his 2nd dam, El Gran Senor. His 3rd dam is Willamae, dam of Travers' winner, Will's Way, and Ashland winner, Willa on the Move.
Awesome Overture is by Awesome Again out of the Pulpit mare, Fifth Overture, who won the 2005 grade III Seaway at Woodbine.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Sequoia Warrior's turnaround
He ran Beyers of 53, 70, 37, and 66 for Dale Romans to begin his career. Off for 12 1/2 months, and now 4, he returned with a 96 for Baffert when 2nd by 1 on April 12. He broke his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths yesterday, and ran another good time.
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Wrong Kimmel firster backed at Belmont
How do you figure John Kimmel sending out first-time starter 3-year-old Sense of Peace at 1.35-1 in the Spin Out race and running 6th of 7, and then winning later in the card with 3-year-old first-time starter Coexist at 27-1? Coexist even had two-time defending Eclipse Award-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez up, while Sense of Peace toted David Cohen (Dominguez was on Rockin Boogie, who ran 4th). Coexist's race looked like just another maiden special weight going in; it's not as if a strong favorite drove the odds up. The favorite was just 2.65-1, and Coexist was 10th (!) choice out of 11, making his win especially improbable.
These were not split divisions, lest I gave a isleading impression; Coexist's race was on the turf. Discerning readers and sharp fans had figured that out, since I divulged that one race had seven horses, and the other 11. Unless scratching madness occurred, you wouldn't find that with split divsions.
Incidentally, I saw the talent in Sense of Peace, but he faded very badly in the stretch. He'll probably be a disappointment, but he has a chance, which is more than I would say for a lot of horses coming out of their debuts.
These were not split divisions, lest I gave a isleading impression; Coexist's race was on the turf. Discerning readers and sharp fans had figured that out, since I divulged that one race had seven horses, and the other 11. Unless scratching madness occurred, you wouldn't find that with split divsions.
Incidentally, I saw the talent in Sense of Peace, but he faded very badly in the stretch. He'll probably be a disappointment, but he has a chance, which is more than I would say for a lot of horses coming out of their debuts.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Spin Out finds peace with blinkers
In his start previous to today, Spin Out got engaged in a full-blown speed duel with Desert Storm, and he was thrown off his game, running 3rd, but checking in 10 lengths behind winner Guyana Star Dweej. The last thing "the book" would say to do after this result would be to add blinkers next time out, but that's exactly what Nick Zito did. And strangely, Spin Out ran from off the pace today and graduated the maiden ranks. Without watching the race today, and watching Spin Out's previous races, it feels like there's a part of the story that is missing. But the pattern is unusual, to say the least, and interesting. Taking Spin Out off the pace even with the addition of blinkers was probably made easier because he cut back to 6f from 8f.
What does Hollywood's new tracking of jockeys during races say?
Watching a replay of yesterday's 5th at Hollywood, I noticed that the list of the four leaders as the race unfolded consisted of the jockeys, not the horses. Is the graphic usually just the #s and nothing else? I know I've never seen the jockeys be a part of it before, at any rate.
Now, I am going to complain about 99% of the changes that are instituted, but listing the horses would be more informative than listing the riders, because the riders have much less to do with the eventual outcome. Yes, not just anybody can ride a race horse, but at the professional level, the jockeys are more interchangeable than the horses.
This custom also forces one, or at least encourages one, to pay a good deal of attention to the jockeys before the race takes place. To me, again, the jockeys hold no interest separate from the horses. There is zero chance that I am going to remember who is riding a horse, and nothing else about that horse, the way I approach races now. If all you can remember about a horse is who is riding it, it's likely you don't even know what kind of a race you're watching: claiming, allowance, whatever. The fantasy world where riders are main variables outside of horses also allows the dismissal from ones mind of the kind of race that is being contested. I would love to poll fans at the races, to quiz them on what kind of a race they were watching just before the race. I think fans who grew up in the handicapping tradition would be surprised how many wouldn't be able to tell me. On the other hand, most fans would be able to give a rundown of which jockeys were contesting a particular race. So this little change with the graphics not only fits in with the precedent set by the "Jockeys" documentary, but also is a pandering change, not an intelligent one. Organizing race results in terms of jockeys is a bit like presenting football games as the matchup of the two teams' left guards. If a craze took place, and this was commonly down, that wouldn't mean that executives should encourage it.
Now, I am going to complain about 99% of the changes that are instituted, but listing the horses would be more informative than listing the riders, because the riders have much less to do with the eventual outcome. Yes, not just anybody can ride a race horse, but at the professional level, the jockeys are more interchangeable than the horses.
This custom also forces one, or at least encourages one, to pay a good deal of attention to the jockeys before the race takes place. To me, again, the jockeys hold no interest separate from the horses. There is zero chance that I am going to remember who is riding a horse, and nothing else about that horse, the way I approach races now. If all you can remember about a horse is who is riding it, it's likely you don't even know what kind of a race you're watching: claiming, allowance, whatever. The fantasy world where riders are main variables outside of horses also allows the dismissal from ones mind of the kind of race that is being contested. I would love to poll fans at the races, to quiz them on what kind of a race they were watching just before the race. I think fans who grew up in the handicapping tradition would be surprised how many wouldn't be able to tell me. On the other hand, most fans would be able to give a rundown of which jockeys were contesting a particular race. So this little change with the graphics not only fits in with the precedent set by the "Jockeys" documentary, but also is a pandering change, not an intelligent one. Organizing race results in terms of jockeys is a bit like presenting football games as the matchup of the two teams' left guards. If a craze took place, and this was commonly down, that wouldn't mean that executives should encourage it.
Look for Ready's Image to rack up the 2 yo stats
If you're looking to invest in a good freshman sire, I thought Ready's Image's daughter Leinan looked like a real talent winning at Keeneland yesterday. It's hard to see Ready's Image transcending the 2-year-old category, however. It's hard to see him regularly getting graded stakes winners. Still, Leinan opened my eyes to him. The caveat besides the kind of horse he was (early 2-year-old sprinter, with a pedigree to match), is that he's not loaded with 2010 2-year-olds, numbers wise; he has on the order of 40.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Dynaformer as a sire of sires: it could have been different
I think Purim was going to be a pretty good sire, maybe a surprisingly good sire given his record as a race horse, but he died earlier this year. I suppose Dynaformer hasn't sired top males in the same percentage that he has top fillies and mares, and I suppose his horses aren't the sire type, but he's also been incredibly snakebitten as a sire of sires. Barbaro tops the list, of course. Perfect Drift was gelded. He had some speed -- could have been a good sire. Dynever didn't do everything that was expected of him on the track, but he was pretty dynamic. He stood in Saudi Arabia, then died young. Blumin Affair, 2nd in the '93 BC Juvenile and then 3rd in the Derby , never got a good shot at stud.
Time's certainly running out for Dynaformer as a sire of sires (although I can't speak knowledgeably about his possibilities with sires overseas.) Brilliant Speed could be a last chance dark horse. That's the right name for a sire, right? Maybe that will convince some breeders to give him a shot.
Time's certainly running out for Dynaformer as a sire of sires (although I can't speak knowledgeably about his possibilities with sires overseas.) Brilliant Speed could be a last chance dark horse. That's the right name for a sire, right? Maybe that will convince some breeders to give him a shot.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
The counter-intuitive open 3 yo allowance
I've now seen two allowances in the past two weeks open to all 3-year-olds, without restrictions. These are essentially stakes without the entry fee (a wrinkle which should actually encourage runners),without the nice purse, and without the black type. I know, it seems not much else is left of a stake after those excisions, but theopen allowances do accomodate horses who would not qualify for the standard nw1x allowance. Yet in spite of the theoretical superiority of an open allowance to a conditional allowance, both open allowances drew disappointing fields, and indeed fields that I would rate as inferior to typical nw1x allowances.
At first blush, the culprit in the 4/15 allowance at Santa Anita seemed to be people avoiding Baffert's entry of Contested and Tiz the Tide, but the presence of those horses was not a function of the conditons of the race: both were eligible for a nw1x. Yet Baffert seemed to know that they would tower over the opposition, as indeed Contested did both on the toteboard and the track after Tiz the Tide was scratched. My point is Contested's being in the race does not indicate that open allowances are inherently uneven. Anyway, this Santa Anita allowance drew just three other runnerd besides Contested, and from my memory looked much more like claimers than stakes horses.
The open 3-year-old allowance at Keeneland had a couple of stakes winners in it, including the victorious Icon Ike, but the race could really have used a Contested. You basically had limited horses in the race, not potential stars. The bottom quality at Keeneland is always weaker than at NYRA, say, so I think that was partly to blame. And 5 1/2 furlong turf races are also fringe races of a kind that aren't really going anywhere, races that tend to be about today and not tomorrow.
But from these two races, the open allowance idea, while refreshing, isn't creating better racing. I think there might be a psychological aspect to this, that despite the opportunity that the races present, they just don't grab trainers and make them want to run. The trainers of nw1x-eligible horses may be scared away, and the trainers of the horses who have graduated nw1x want anything but another allowance. The lower quality is one of those counter-intuitive realites that can perhaps be exploited for good purse value by those in the know (or who read this blog).
At first blush, the culprit in the 4/15 allowance at Santa Anita seemed to be people avoiding Baffert's entry of Contested and Tiz the Tide, but the presence of those horses was not a function of the conditons of the race: both were eligible for a nw1x. Yet Baffert seemed to know that they would tower over the opposition, as indeed Contested did both on the toteboard and the track after Tiz the Tide was scratched. My point is Contested's being in the race does not indicate that open allowances are inherently uneven. Anyway, this Santa Anita allowance drew just three other runnerd besides Contested, and from my memory looked much more like claimers than stakes horses.
The open 3-year-old allowance at Keeneland had a couple of stakes winners in it, including the victorious Icon Ike, but the race could really have used a Contested. You basically had limited horses in the race, not potential stars. The bottom quality at Keeneland is always weaker than at NYRA, say, so I think that was partly to blame. And 5 1/2 furlong turf races are also fringe races of a kind that aren't really going anywhere, races that tend to be about today and not tomorrow.
But from these two races, the open allowance idea, while refreshing, isn't creating better racing. I think there might be a psychological aspect to this, that despite the opportunity that the races present, they just don't grab trainers and make them want to run. The trainers of nw1x-eligible horses may be scared away, and the trainers of the horses who have graduated nw1x want anything but another allowance. The lower quality is one of those counter-intuitive realites that can perhaps be exploited for good purse value by those in the know (or who read this blog).
Veering away from a claimer for Satyana at last minute?
Now, this is a lot of of pedigree for a filly in for $40,000. Satyana, who was scratched from a $40,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland Wednesday, is by Street Cry out of Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister. She's a half sister to Thiskyhasnolimit, with her 2nd dam Cara Rafaela, who basically spent her racing career on the board in grade Is, and then went on to overshadow her own racing career by producing Bernardini.
In the main, Satyana appears not to be able to run at all, although we are talking about Beyers ranging from 38-65 at Churchill and Gulfstream, not Beyers of 0 at Finger Lakes. She is just 3, and had done enough to be 3-1 on the morning line for Wednesday's race, where bettors could care less about her pedigree. But I said she can't run at all because she's beaten just 10 horses in her career, while losing to 27. The only time she ever showed speed was in a slow-paced, 9f turf maiden at Gulfstream.
The interesting question, of course, is if she was scratched for a standard reason, or because the cforay into a claiming race was reconsidered. I have to say that I am forever overestimating the value of broodmare prospects, and it wouldn't be atypical for a filly I've touted as a good one to be entered again shortly, for a lower price. And that would less us know that the scratch was not in response to any incongruence between the filly's pedigree and the price.
Satyana is a Padua filly, if you're curious. Ian Wilkes has been her trainer of record for all four of her races so far, but Mike Maker is now listed as trainer. Maker seems like a guy who might be more comfortable running a fancy-pedigreed filly for a claimer than Wilkes, but I could certainly be wrong about that, as I could be for just about everything I write here.
In the main, Satyana appears not to be able to run at all, although we are talking about Beyers ranging from 38-65 at Churchill and Gulfstream, not Beyers of 0 at Finger Lakes. She is just 3, and had done enough to be 3-1 on the morning line for Wednesday's race, where bettors could care less about her pedigree. But I said she can't run at all because she's beaten just 10 horses in her career, while losing to 27. The only time she ever showed speed was in a slow-paced, 9f turf maiden at Gulfstream.
The interesting question, of course, is if she was scratched for a standard reason, or because the cforay into a claiming race was reconsidered. I have to say that I am forever overestimating the value of broodmare prospects, and it wouldn't be atypical for a filly I've touted as a good one to be entered again shortly, for a lower price. And that would less us know that the scratch was not in response to any incongruence between the filly's pedigree and the price.
Satyana is a Padua filly, if you're curious. Ian Wilkes has been her trainer of record for all four of her races so far, but Mike Maker is now listed as trainer. Maker seems like a guy who might be more comfortable running a fancy-pedigreed filly for a claimer than Wilkes, but I could certainly be wrong about that, as I could be for just about everything I write here.
Unbridled's Song is a dirt sire: the evidence is stark
In the fantasy horse racing game I play, we pick a maiden each month to add to our stable, and I have most recently zeroed in on Prissy. In her debut at Keeneland, she ran into two tigresses in Colonial Flag and Centre Court, and the pace severely disadvantaged her as she went on to be 4th. But I don't know how much attention I would have paid her if not for her pedigree: her dam, Last Kitten, failed to hit the board in three starts, but is kin to Kitten's Joy, Precious Kitten, and Justenuffheart, the latter not only a stakes winner of over $300,000, but also dam of Dreaming of Anna, Justeniffhumor, and Lewis Michael. So, I'm not bothered by the bottom half of this pedigree; in fact, I'm enamored.
Prissy is by Unbridled's Song. Reviewing his top horses, I'm bowled over by the impact he's made, by the consequential horses he's had. He's become one of those sires that you can't give three horses for and do justice. He's not the sire of Unrivaled Belle or Eight Belles or Zensational; it's more the case that they're by him. But one thing about Unbridled's Song: he really doesn't sire impactful turf horses. You can sum up his impact on the turf pretty easily, and the absolute absence of group winners in Europe is really startling for a sire of his standing. As a turf sire, Unbridled's Song has Thorn Song, not the most consistent of horses, but twice a grade I winner, and Magnificent Song, who took the Lake George and Garden City in succession in 2006. He has a couple of Christophe Clement fillies, Seducer's Song and Strike It Rich, who both won graded stakes. He has a good super-short turf sprinter now in Inspired, and probably had an even better one a few years ago in Unbridled Sidney. Even the Score looked like a turf horse for a while, but never won a graded stake, and ended up doing a lot more on dirt. Ravi's Song has competed successfully on turf, although she's not grade I quality on turf or dirt. In terms of turf earnings in North America, Unbridled's Song has ranked in the top 35 for eight straight years, although only once has he been better than 20th. He gets his share of turf stakes winners. But the impact simply isn't there.
I wonder if the Unbridled's Song are settled enough to perform to their ability on turf? Their hyperactivity and speed is why I think a couple have worked as turf sprinters. I think of an Unbridled's Song turf horse I thought had potential but who never ended up winning a stake, the beautifully bred Warrior Song (out of La Gueriere, making him half brother to Lasting Approval). In his his four wins, all two turns on the turf, he was up by at least a length after the first call. Prissy may run contrary to type here, to her benefit: she was last of 12 after a quarter mile in her debut.
To be honest with you, I had forgotten about the proximity of Dreaming of Anna and Lewis Michael to Prissy. I was thinking Justenuffhumor was the third top sibling of her dam, instead of being one of three top horses that one of her sisters produced. So I was thinking this family had struck three times under the first couple of dams, while it's more like five or six times. I think it's too much for me to bypass Prissy in teh game, as much as take the Unbridled's Song-on-the-dirt issue seriously.
You might ask if Prissy can perhaps run on the dirt? Maybe this is one way to get past the problem? Dreaming of Anna won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on the dirt, after all. But Prissy is training to be a turf filly -- literally. Longchamp has been brought over here. At Palm Meadows, at least her last six works were on the turf.
Prissy is by Unbridled's Song. Reviewing his top horses, I'm bowled over by the impact he's made, by the consequential horses he's had. He's become one of those sires that you can't give three horses for and do justice. He's not the sire of Unrivaled Belle or Eight Belles or Zensational; it's more the case that they're by him. But one thing about Unbridled's Song: he really doesn't sire impactful turf horses. You can sum up his impact on the turf pretty easily, and the absolute absence of group winners in Europe is really startling for a sire of his standing. As a turf sire, Unbridled's Song has Thorn Song, not the most consistent of horses, but twice a grade I winner, and Magnificent Song, who took the Lake George and Garden City in succession in 2006. He has a couple of Christophe Clement fillies, Seducer's Song and Strike It Rich, who both won graded stakes. He has a good super-short turf sprinter now in Inspired, and probably had an even better one a few years ago in Unbridled Sidney. Even the Score looked like a turf horse for a while, but never won a graded stake, and ended up doing a lot more on dirt. Ravi's Song has competed successfully on turf, although she's not grade I quality on turf or dirt. In terms of turf earnings in North America, Unbridled's Song has ranked in the top 35 for eight straight years, although only once has he been better than 20th. He gets his share of turf stakes winners. But the impact simply isn't there.
I wonder if the Unbridled's Song are settled enough to perform to their ability on turf? Their hyperactivity and speed is why I think a couple have worked as turf sprinters. I think of an Unbridled's Song turf horse I thought had potential but who never ended up winning a stake, the beautifully bred Warrior Song (out of La Gueriere, making him half brother to Lasting Approval). In his his four wins, all two turns on the turf, he was up by at least a length after the first call. Prissy may run contrary to type here, to her benefit: she was last of 12 after a quarter mile in her debut.
To be honest with you, I had forgotten about the proximity of Dreaming of Anna and Lewis Michael to Prissy. I was thinking Justenuffhumor was the third top sibling of her dam, instead of being one of three top horses that one of her sisters produced. So I was thinking this family had struck three times under the first couple of dams, while it's more like five or six times. I think it's too much for me to bypass Prissy in teh game, as much as take the Unbridled's Song-on-the-dirt issue seriously.
You might ask if Prissy can perhaps run on the dirt? Maybe this is one way to get past the problem? Dreaming of Anna won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on the dirt, after all. But Prissy is training to be a turf filly -- literally. Longchamp has been brought over here. At Palm Meadows, at least her last six works were on the turf.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Voodoo -- the AAAA horse
Baseball pundits are fond of the idea of the 'AAAA' ball player: too good for minor league, 'AAA' ball, but not good enough for the major leagues. The concept actually probably makes a good more sense in racing, where everything revolves around winning or losing. Not to speak for all sabermetricians (my following of baseball is a bit lax for me to qualify as one, actually), but we are skeptical that someone can be very good on one level, and then downright poor on the next.
A ballplayer figures to fall off 30 points in batting average from AAA to the major leagues, say. Those 30 points can't logically be enough to make him the best player in AAA, on the one hand, and not good enough for a starting job in the majors on the other. But in racing, meeting competition four lengths tougher can logically be the difference between winning and losing, which makes all teh difference.
I suspect a simple difference in competition isn't simply what explained Voodoo, a fine Jim Jerkens gelding who earned almost $700,000 from 2000-2006, and once ran 2nd in the Carter as well as the Vosburgh. He also won the 2003 Sport Page, his only graded victory. But whatever the reasons, whether they included luck, a psychological reaction to the difference in competition, or simple limits on how fast he could run, the difference in Voodoo's success in allowance and stakes competition before his years as an old horse was striking.
When he won an August allowance at Saratoga as a 5-year-old, he upped his career record against New York allowance competition (and all allowance competition) to five wins in five starts. At the same time, he was winless in stakes, with 13 tries at those races. This isn't 2 for 13 in one arena, and 3 for 5 in another; this is 0 for 13, and 5 for 5. For good measure, Voodoo also took just one try to break his maiden.
To bolster the idea that the level of competition really was the driving force behind his record, the discrepancy does not mainly represent allowances at one point in time, and stakes at another. That is what is so rare and distinctive about Voodoo's record. After breaking his maiden, he had a stakes loss, then an allowance win; then three stakes losses, and an allowance win; then five stakes losses, and an allowance win; then two runs of consecutive stakes losses, followed by allowance wins.
I don't think it would be fair to say that the public didn't pick up on the trend, but it wasn't as if Voodoo was odds on in all of his allowance tries, either. He was favored in four of them, but only odds on once. The time he wasn't favored, he was 8-1, but came out on top of odds-on Aldebaran, Smooth Jazz, and Windsor Castle. Certainly from a distance, it's hard to see this victory, against such a group of graded stakes winners, as supporting the general trend, whatever the actual stakes (or lack thereof) of the race. There was at least some luck in the dichotomy, and fans were right not to back Voodoo blindly in his allowance tries, and would have been right (if poorer) not to categorically dismiss him as a win possibility in stakes.
Two races after his fifth allowance victory, Voodoo got off the stakes schneid, winning the Sport Page. The allowance streak also ended in his next try at one, although in fact he never won another race of any prestige, going 0 for 18 over his final 33 months or so of racing after the '03 Sport Page. He was 2nd five times in this stretch, including in the '04 Vosburgh, and including in two allowance races, from three tries at the class.
A ballplayer figures to fall off 30 points in batting average from AAA to the major leagues, say. Those 30 points can't logically be enough to make him the best player in AAA, on the one hand, and not good enough for a starting job in the majors on the other. But in racing, meeting competition four lengths tougher can logically be the difference between winning and losing, which makes all teh difference.
I suspect a simple difference in competition isn't simply what explained Voodoo, a fine Jim Jerkens gelding who earned almost $700,000 from 2000-2006, and once ran 2nd in the Carter as well as the Vosburgh. He also won the 2003 Sport Page, his only graded victory. But whatever the reasons, whether they included luck, a psychological reaction to the difference in competition, or simple limits on how fast he could run, the difference in Voodoo's success in allowance and stakes competition before his years as an old horse was striking.
When he won an August allowance at Saratoga as a 5-year-old, he upped his career record against New York allowance competition (and all allowance competition) to five wins in five starts. At the same time, he was winless in stakes, with 13 tries at those races. This isn't 2 for 13 in one arena, and 3 for 5 in another; this is 0 for 13, and 5 for 5. For good measure, Voodoo also took just one try to break his maiden.
To bolster the idea that the level of competition really was the driving force behind his record, the discrepancy does not mainly represent allowances at one point in time, and stakes at another. That is what is so rare and distinctive about Voodoo's record. After breaking his maiden, he had a stakes loss, then an allowance win; then three stakes losses, and an allowance win; then five stakes losses, and an allowance win; then two runs of consecutive stakes losses, followed by allowance wins.
I don't think it would be fair to say that the public didn't pick up on the trend, but it wasn't as if Voodoo was odds on in all of his allowance tries, either. He was favored in four of them, but only odds on once. The time he wasn't favored, he was 8-1, but came out on top of odds-on Aldebaran, Smooth Jazz, and Windsor Castle. Certainly from a distance, it's hard to see this victory, against such a group of graded stakes winners, as supporting the general trend, whatever the actual stakes (or lack thereof) of the race. There was at least some luck in the dichotomy, and fans were right not to back Voodoo blindly in his allowance tries, and would have been right (if poorer) not to categorically dismiss him as a win possibility in stakes.
Two races after his fifth allowance victory, Voodoo got off the stakes schneid, winning the Sport Page. The allowance streak also ended in his next try at one, although in fact he never won another race of any prestige, going 0 for 18 over his final 33 months or so of racing after the '03 Sport Page. He was 2nd five times in this stretch, including in the '04 Vosburgh, and including in two allowance races, from three tries at the class.
Monday, April 23, 2012
The ultimate beginner's weekend for Silverton Hill (well, if you took a four-day weekend)
I noticed that, from Thursday through Sunday, Silverton Hill LLC (Tommy and Bonnie Hamilton) had four horses make their debuts at Keeneland. Now that the dust has settled, I find three of them rather interesting.
Two-year-old Zoloto became one of the first 50 winners from his crop. He is intriguing from multiple perspectives, including that he is by Medaglia d'Oro, and that he was 7th of 9 at the first call, slanting the odds heavily against him. Not only did he win, but he won comfortably, by 3 3/4 lengths. The time appears to have been solid, second fastest of the five Keeneland 2-year-old races at the meet, and also the second best figure in my rendering (Allaboutcaroline is tops in both categories). On the negative side of the ledger, Zoloto didn't change leads. His price as a yearling ($120,000) is far from worrisome, but it's safe to say he wasn't blazing a trail in that regard the way he did by winning so early this year. The great tease Saints Cup, subject of a disputed private sale after winning first out at Saratoga by 9 3/4 lengths at 2 in 1999, is under the 2nd dam. Forever Full also produced Regiment, who won the USA Stakes, a good race. That he won $288,000 in just eight starts can be regarded as either a glass half full or half empty (to speak of Forever Full). The eight starts may signal a lack of soundness in the family again, although I don't know what exactly ended Regiment's career. Zoloto's dam herself, Eternal Cup, won $168,000, and was a solid sprinter for Steve Asmussen. Stamina/speed crosses, such as produced Zoloto, are exciting when they give signs of having worked.
Three-year-old Towner is half brother to Silverton Hill's two-time graded stakes winner and turf sprinter specialist Havelock. Given his pedigree, I'm surprised he was risked for $50,000, and even more surprised that he won after that show of no confidence. He is a gelding, which certaiinly reduces his financial upside. Looking at his speed figure, and margins of a nose, head, and neck separating the first four finishers, he certainly may been placed correctly. He wasn't claimed, in any event.
Towner went to the maiden claiming race, but Wickersheim was reserved for the maiden special weight on the same day. A $560,000 yearling by Unbridled's Song out of Sweet Nanette, and a Triple Crown nominee, his finish was about as mid-pack (7th of 12) as one can be. I saw small positive signs, however, and he appeared to not be persevered with much throughout the race after a terribly slow start. It looked like he was out there for the experience after the start. I saw a horse who looking willing in the stretch, while most 12-length losses are invariably marked by a fade.
The fourth first-time starter was the Smart Strike colt Washington Dash, who finished 6th of 8 while the field clustered behind blowout winner Let's Go Ben. Washington Dash was 3-1, the second choice.
Silverton Hill also started Indulgence in the 5 1/2 furlong Giant's Causeway on Saturday. She finished 5th by 3 3/4 but was 16 lengths back after 3/8ths of a mile. I remember seeing her win at the same distance in an allowance at Keeneland last fall. It was fun to see her win with that style; Zoloto certainly doesn't have anything on her.
Two-year-old Zoloto became one of the first 50 winners from his crop. He is intriguing from multiple perspectives, including that he is by Medaglia d'Oro, and that he was 7th of 9 at the first call, slanting the odds heavily against him. Not only did he win, but he won comfortably, by 3 3/4 lengths. The time appears to have been solid, second fastest of the five Keeneland 2-year-old races at the meet, and also the second best figure in my rendering (Allaboutcaroline is tops in both categories). On the negative side of the ledger, Zoloto didn't change leads. His price as a yearling ($120,000) is far from worrisome, but it's safe to say he wasn't blazing a trail in that regard the way he did by winning so early this year. The great tease Saints Cup, subject of a disputed private sale after winning first out at Saratoga by 9 3/4 lengths at 2 in 1999, is under the 2nd dam. Forever Full also produced Regiment, who won the USA Stakes, a good race. That he won $288,000 in just eight starts can be regarded as either a glass half full or half empty (to speak of Forever Full). The eight starts may signal a lack of soundness in the family again, although I don't know what exactly ended Regiment's career. Zoloto's dam herself, Eternal Cup, won $168,000, and was a solid sprinter for Steve Asmussen. Stamina/speed crosses, such as produced Zoloto, are exciting when they give signs of having worked.
Three-year-old Towner is half brother to Silverton Hill's two-time graded stakes winner and turf sprinter specialist Havelock. Given his pedigree, I'm surprised he was risked for $50,000, and even more surprised that he won after that show of no confidence. He is a gelding, which certaiinly reduces his financial upside. Looking at his speed figure, and margins of a nose, head, and neck separating the first four finishers, he certainly may been placed correctly. He wasn't claimed, in any event.
Towner went to the maiden claiming race, but Wickersheim was reserved for the maiden special weight on the same day. A $560,000 yearling by Unbridled's Song out of Sweet Nanette, and a Triple Crown nominee, his finish was about as mid-pack (7th of 12) as one can be. I saw small positive signs, however, and he appeared to not be persevered with much throughout the race after a terribly slow start. It looked like he was out there for the experience after the start. I saw a horse who looking willing in the stretch, while most 12-length losses are invariably marked by a fade.
The fourth first-time starter was the Smart Strike colt Washington Dash, who finished 6th of 8 while the field clustered behind blowout winner Let's Go Ben. Washington Dash was 3-1, the second choice.
Silverton Hill also started Indulgence in the 5 1/2 furlong Giant's Causeway on Saturday. She finished 5th by 3 3/4 but was 16 lengths back after 3/8ths of a mile. I remember seeing her win at the same distance in an allowance at Keeneland last fall. It was fun to see her win with that style; Zoloto certainly doesn't have anything on her.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Silent Predator: MSW winner Belmont 2000, then winless in 29 more races, with less than $1000/start
I'm not sure if I've said so explicitly, but I'm in the process of studying debut winners, specifically what happens to them. I don't know if I've seen a more hapless future for a debut winner in my study than the one that awaited Silent Predator. He took his debut as a 2-year-old at Belmont Park in June, in open company, at the maiden special weight level. He finished his career 1 for 30. After the maiden win, his earnings totaled less than $19,000. It's odd that a horse could show himself so cheap for his career, yet run one race that was relatively good, or at least relatively lucky. It is also true that when the first race is an outlier, it is more likely to result in a win of commensurate class. If a horse runs an atypical race mid-career, unless the trainer has made a brilliant move and has anticipated the career race, the race is likely to be wasted in a blowout win. Because level of ability is not well known for a horse's debut, and connections therefore tend to be conservative and hope for the best, many horses start at the maiden special weight level who don't really measure up to that. If the horse wins, as Silent Predator did, they probably just conclude the were wrong and blithely underrated the horse. Sometimes the stars have just aligned, though, if in a much less financially advantageous way than for a Kentucky Derby or a stakes race.
It certainly happens sometimes that a horse's first race is its best. Most of these horses, however, do not run 30 times, and most are not campaigned as if nothing is wrong. Usually, the horse faces a long layoff in the early stages of its career and presumably cannot physically do what he or she did in the debut.
Not only did Silent Predator never win after his first race, but he was only 2nd in two of the remaining 29 starts, making him quite the rare non-factor. He was 3rd four times. None of the placings occurred at the NYRA tracks, where he made eight of his nine starts after the debut win. He ran through age 5, making his last 16 starts at Charles Town.
One thing I've noticed that has surprised me is that horses who defy their pedigrees and win sprinting in their first races do not seem to have unusually bright futures. I wrote a post about one or two of these horses who got hurt and didn't get to show what they could do, but whatever the particulars, I've seen many of these kinds of horses never get untracked. Maybe a good dirt sprinter who doesn't figure to be that is sort of like a good-looking horse who doesn't look like its sire, and the ability demonstrated isn't really the best of signs.
Silent Predator was a Quiet American. A Quiet American who can win first out at 5f would seem to have a bright future, but maybe that's not proper thinking.
It certainly happens sometimes that a horse's first race is its best. Most of these horses, however, do not run 30 times, and most are not campaigned as if nothing is wrong. Usually, the horse faces a long layoff in the early stages of its career and presumably cannot physically do what he or she did in the debut.
Not only did Silent Predator never win after his first race, but he was only 2nd in two of the remaining 29 starts, making him quite the rare non-factor. He was 3rd four times. None of the placings occurred at the NYRA tracks, where he made eight of his nine starts after the debut win. He ran through age 5, making his last 16 starts at Charles Town.
One thing I've noticed that has surprised me is that horses who defy their pedigrees and win sprinting in their first races do not seem to have unusually bright futures. I wrote a post about one or two of these horses who got hurt and didn't get to show what they could do, but whatever the particulars, I've seen many of these kinds of horses never get untracked. Maybe a good dirt sprinter who doesn't figure to be that is sort of like a good-looking horse who doesn't look like its sire, and the ability demonstrated isn't really the best of signs.
Silent Predator was a Quiet American. A Quiet American who can win first out at 5f would seem to have a bright future, but maybe that's not proper thinking.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Speightstown primed to have impactful 3-year-old sprinters
Within the last week, I've seen two 3-year-old Speightstowns run bang-up races. Town Prize captured the open Woodstock at Woodbine by 5 1/4 in 1:08.22, and Sum of the Parts was a 7 3/4 length winner of a 6f allowance at Keeneland. Judging from the past performances, neithre horse had given strong indication before of being the kind of horse he looked in these victories, which ordinarily would leave one skeptical. It is interesting, however, that both broke out, and both are by the same sire.
Town Prize could mostly only be faulted on his previous Beyers; as a horse who won his first and third starts, and ran 3rd in his second and fourth, he gets a bit of an allowance. The door always had to be left ajar for him. His 85 Beyer when 3rd in the Spectacular Bid was also in all likelihood held down on the theory that the modest field couldn't have gone as fast as they seemed to.
People will jump on how well these Speightstowns ran on the synthetic, but Town Prize's Spectacular Bid was much faster (at least Beyer wise) than he was running at Woodbine last year. Sum of the Parts' Keeneland score was his first time on the synthetic.
I try not to force points on this blog, and I don't know if Town Prize and Sum of teh Parts are absolutely top class. But it seems to me there is more of an opening for a star 3-year-old male sprinter than a start 3-year-old filly sprinter. There is Trinniberg on the male side, but there seems more known quality and more depth with the fillies.
Both divisions are confusing, because it is not clear who exactly is a sprinter, and who exactly is a router. Routes have first priority with owners of 3-year-olds, particularly 3-year-old males, but I think there are few routers who can be top class sprinting, anyway, meaning that if connections follow results, horses end up where they should. Town Prize and Sum of the Parts seem like two who were signed up to be sprinters on the first day of school, anyway. Neither is a Triple Crown nominee, although that might spur questions about how highly their connections regard them in general.
Town Prize could mostly only be faulted on his previous Beyers; as a horse who won his first and third starts, and ran 3rd in his second and fourth, he gets a bit of an allowance. The door always had to be left ajar for him. His 85 Beyer when 3rd in the Spectacular Bid was also in all likelihood held down on the theory that the modest field couldn't have gone as fast as they seemed to.
People will jump on how well these Speightstowns ran on the synthetic, but Town Prize's Spectacular Bid was much faster (at least Beyer wise) than he was running at Woodbine last year. Sum of the Parts' Keeneland score was his first time on the synthetic.
I try not to force points on this blog, and I don't know if Town Prize and Sum of teh Parts are absolutely top class. But it seems to me there is more of an opening for a star 3-year-old male sprinter than a start 3-year-old filly sprinter. There is Trinniberg on the male side, but there seems more known quality and more depth with the fillies.
Both divisions are confusing, because it is not clear who exactly is a sprinter, and who exactly is a router. Routes have first priority with owners of 3-year-olds, particularly 3-year-old males, but I think there are few routers who can be top class sprinting, anyway, meaning that if connections follow results, horses end up where they should. Town Prize and Sum of the Parts seem like two who were signed up to be sprinters on the first day of school, anyway. Neither is a Triple Crown nominee, although that might spur questions about how highly their connections regard them in general.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Fun and Gains: old on the tail female line. Oldest current pedigrees for total age?
I'm not sure if I've betrayed this weakness on the blog yet, but having somehow gotten it into my head that the age of a horse's dams was interesting, I always notice them when I retrieve pedigrees. It's not an obsession, but a very small part of my brain is needed to notice the dams' ages, I guess, and and if something is of interest there, the small part of my brain assigned to the task will alert the rest. There was an alert today for Fun and Gains, a 3-year-old filly 3rd in the 9th at Keeneland in her debut. Her dam, Richwood Girl, is just a 1999 model, but she becomes more of an anomaly as you keep going back. The 2nd dam was born in 1979, the 3rd dam in 1960, the 4th in 1943, and the 5th in 1927. The degree of datedness of the 4th and 5th strike me as the real standard bearers. I think it will take a lot of looking to find a 2009 horse with a 5th dam that dates to before 1927. Granted, the tail female line really just tells you about one quarter of the pedigree, but I like thinking that we are actually regularly seeing matchups of horses from different eras, genetically speaking.
I suppose my antennae should expand to note total datedness of a pedigree. You could start with which sires and broodmare sires have the most dated pedigrees; they repeat, after all. Then you could sort of have a dream cross for the oldest pedigree, genetically speaking, and hope that somehow the tail female line resembled Fun and Gains's. People could even breed with this aim in mind. It would be wacky, and reckless if money were involved (which it always is), but it wouldn't surpass some other approaches I've heard. And it would provide me great amusement.
I suppose my antennae should expand to note total datedness of a pedigree. You could start with which sires and broodmare sires have the most dated pedigrees; they repeat, after all. Then you could sort of have a dream cross for the oldest pedigree, genetically speaking, and hope that somehow the tail female line resembled Fun and Gains's. People could even breed with this aim in mind. It would be wacky, and reckless if money were involved (which it always is), but it wouldn't surpass some other approaches I've heard. And it would provide me great amusement.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Trainer and sire analysis for Saturday's fast 3 yo claimer winner Daylight Magic
In estimating Saturday's speed figures at Santa Anita, the 1st race, a 32-28 3-year-old claimer at 6.5 furlongs that came off the turf, went much faster than I expected. A horse named Daylight Magic won by a length-and-a-half in a six-horse field. Partly because all races were off the turf, 6.5 furlongs was a popular distance Saturday, and Daylight Magic (1:15.59) outran 12.5k nw2l claimers (1:16.61), nw1x allowance older fillies and mares (1:15.77) and Mizdirection (1:16.50), winner of the depleted 100k Las Cienegas (1:16.50). Only 3-year-old off-turf maiden winner, Chickie Charms, who had what I call "good margins," ran faster (1:15.50). Daylight Magic was the rank outsider in his race (18-1 while no one else of the six was over 6-1), but he is 2 for 2 in his career, suggesting he can be something.
I have heard of his trainer, Caesar Dominguez. Dominguez has won almost 500 races, but when I saw he had won just once in 43 starts this year, almost all of the action coming at Santa Anita, I thought the story gained a dimension.
Since I had heard of Dominguez despite his tough 2012, I availed myself of equibase's handy trainer stats to find out exactly why. I found the year-by-year numbers for Dominguez fascinating. He has maintained what could be called steady business for over 20 years, never earning more than $1,213,321 in a year (1999) but only being under $300,000 three times ('05, '06, and '11). The numbers could well be yearly revenue numbers for a more conventional business. I would have thought that a big horse here and there would have prevented distinct patterns from emerging, but while Dominguez has never really fallen off the table, his business of recent years is clearly in a different phase than it was. His earnings were at least $569,000 for every year from 1991 to 2003, and have been less than that for every year since, while still averaging a respectable $316,203 from 2004 to 2011. The biggest drop-off has been in his number of starts, which was as high as 392 in 1993. His average was 291 starts per year from 1992 to 1996, 188 per year from 1997 to 2003, and 107 per year from '04 to '11. His earnings per start are down, but down much less: they were $3,533 for his career before 2004, and $2,955 per start from '04 - '11. The actual drop is certainly more once inflation is considered. But a drop in winning percentage to 9.9% from '04 - '11 (compared to 12.5% before '11), suggests that the drop-off in earnings entirely results from winning less, not from losing higher quality horses.
Turning from Dominguez to Daylight Magic's sire, Awesome Gambler: thanks to this year's Santa Anita Oaks winner Willa B Awesome, the picture is bright. Willa B Awesome and Daylight Magic are from the first crop of Awesome Gamblers. Who would have thought a son of Coronado's Quest, just a $50,000 yearling, with ordinary female family, no graded black type on the tracj, and less than $100,000 in career earnings, would be making something of an impact at stud? I do remember thinking he was impressive when he won the Alydar at Hollywood at 3, to general skepticism among my peers.
Unfortunately for him, Dominguez doesn't train Willa B Awesome, but he did train Awesome Gambler, and maybe that one's unlikely siring ability will provide Dominguez with the big horse who has apparently proven elusive? Much as Dominguez's steady earnings are comforting to the statistician, I wouldn't mind seeing them get a jolt.
I have heard of his trainer, Caesar Dominguez. Dominguez has won almost 500 races, but when I saw he had won just once in 43 starts this year, almost all of the action coming at Santa Anita, I thought the story gained a dimension.
Since I had heard of Dominguez despite his tough 2012, I availed myself of equibase's handy trainer stats to find out exactly why. I found the year-by-year numbers for Dominguez fascinating. He has maintained what could be called steady business for over 20 years, never earning more than $1,213,321 in a year (1999) but only being under $300,000 three times ('05, '06, and '11). The numbers could well be yearly revenue numbers for a more conventional business. I would have thought that a big horse here and there would have prevented distinct patterns from emerging, but while Dominguez has never really fallen off the table, his business of recent years is clearly in a different phase than it was. His earnings were at least $569,000 for every year from 1991 to 2003, and have been less than that for every year since, while still averaging a respectable $316,203 from 2004 to 2011. The biggest drop-off has been in his number of starts, which was as high as 392 in 1993. His average was 291 starts per year from 1992 to 1996, 188 per year from 1997 to 2003, and 107 per year from '04 to '11. His earnings per start are down, but down much less: they were $3,533 for his career before 2004, and $2,955 per start from '04 - '11. The actual drop is certainly more once inflation is considered. But a drop in winning percentage to 9.9% from '04 - '11 (compared to 12.5% before '11), suggests that the drop-off in earnings entirely results from winning less, not from losing higher quality horses.
Turning from Dominguez to Daylight Magic's sire, Awesome Gambler: thanks to this year's Santa Anita Oaks winner Willa B Awesome, the picture is bright. Willa B Awesome and Daylight Magic are from the first crop of Awesome Gamblers. Who would have thought a son of Coronado's Quest, just a $50,000 yearling, with ordinary female family, no graded black type on the tracj, and less than $100,000 in career earnings, would be making something of an impact at stud? I do remember thinking he was impressive when he won the Alydar at Hollywood at 3, to general skepticism among my peers.
Unfortunately for him, Dominguez doesn't train Willa B Awesome, but he did train Awesome Gambler, and maybe that one's unlikely siring ability will provide Dominguez with the big horse who has apparently proven elusive? Much as Dominguez's steady earnings are comforting to the statistician, I wouldn't mind seeing them get a jolt.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Is explicit mention of death in charts advisable?
From the equibase chart of Saturday's 4th at AQU: "La Festa E Domani suffered a fatal injury entering the stretch and was vanned off." I have to believe the conclusion of the incident would not be there if not for the NY Times article. It seems to me that whatever individual or individuals is in charge of this corner of the industry is saying by the change, "Alright, you want to count incidents from charts? Go ahead, we'll tell you exactly what happened." (Knowing that the NY Times methods are implemented with the express goal of generating a high count of unacceptable episodes, and so assume the worst when the truth is not specified. Therefore actual counts of fatalities can only make the picture brighter, and are a way of fighting back against the Times.)
On a certain level, I'm probably resistant to all change, but I don't know how I feel about the charts being explicit. On the one hand, it's certainly good to know the conclusion, rather than just to push the breakdowns to a distant corner of ones mind. There has almost been an element to the breakdowns that I imagine would be present in a totalitarian regime where people disappear, and the actual goings-on are not allowed to be discussed. There's always been a "we know what that probably means" aspect to breakdowns, and particularly the presentation of them in charts.
On the other hand, the change is certainly jarring. Death seems out of place in the mundane accounting of a day's races. It seems beyond the scope of charts. I'm not sure it should be related so matter-of-factly (not that I have a great counterproposal).
There is also the problem that the resolution of many breakdowns is some time in the making, and certainly not possible to report a half hour or so after a race, when the charts are usually first available. For the cases pending, the status can only be conveyed accurately if a very general report is issued. "Conclusion not yet known" is about all that can be conveyed without risking gross distortion, because there are so many variations and degrees of danger spanning injuries and mishaps that are not quickly ended.
On a certain level, I'm probably resistant to all change, but I don't know how I feel about the charts being explicit. On the one hand, it's certainly good to know the conclusion, rather than just to push the breakdowns to a distant corner of ones mind. There has almost been an element to the breakdowns that I imagine would be present in a totalitarian regime where people disappear, and the actual goings-on are not allowed to be discussed. There's always been a "we know what that probably means" aspect to breakdowns, and particularly the presentation of them in charts.
On the other hand, the change is certainly jarring. Death seems out of place in the mundane accounting of a day's races. It seems beyond the scope of charts. I'm not sure it should be related so matter-of-factly (not that I have a great counterproposal).
There is also the problem that the resolution of many breakdowns is some time in the making, and certainly not possible to report a half hour or so after a race, when the charts are usually first available. For the cases pending, the status can only be conveyed accurately if a very general report is issued. "Conclusion not yet known" is about all that can be conveyed without risking gross distortion, because there are so many variations and degrees of danger spanning injuries and mishaps that are not quickly ended.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Ultrafleet females (Platinum Mine and Cosmopolitan) available for a tag
I consider California Flag and the current broodmare Cambiocorsa excellent talents and achievers, and if I were looking to claim broodmare prospects, I would take a long look at either Platinum Mine and/or Cosmopolitan, both of which have run and won recently at the 25,000 - $30,000 level (in fact, Platinum Mine won at Santa Anita yesterday, prompting this post).
Platinum Mine's first couple of races weren't bad, as as a 3-year-old filly, she finished 2nd in open maiden special weights (not Cal-bred maiden special weights). She seized command early in her debut before succumbing. She's never really run as well since, or oddly, even showed the same type of early speed, and speed is something that seems a distinct possibility for a half sister to California Flag and Cambiocorsa.
Platinum Mine is 5 and by Memo. Cosmopolitan is more attractive from the standpoint that she's 3 and by Harlan's Holiday, although she may be a lesser runner than Platinum Mine. She's the morning line favorite for a race Saturday at Oaklawn, where she's eligible to be claimed for $20,000.
Platinum Mine's first couple of races weren't bad, as as a 3-year-old filly, she finished 2nd in open maiden special weights (not Cal-bred maiden special weights). She seized command early in her debut before succumbing. She's never really run as well since, or oddly, even showed the same type of early speed, and speed is something that seems a distinct possibility for a half sister to California Flag and Cambiocorsa.
Platinum Mine is 5 and by Memo. Cosmopolitan is more attractive from the standpoint that she's 3 and by Harlan's Holiday, although she may be a lesser runner than Platinum Mine. She's the morning line favorite for a race Saturday at Oaklawn, where she's eligible to be claimed for $20,000.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Did Marketing Mix get the Kris S. mare magic? And a Canadian-bred focus
There isn't the same basis for confidence with Inglorious as there is with Marketing Mix right now, but both are uncommonly good Canadian-breds. They were 1st and 3rd in the Woodbine Oaks last year, with Inglorious, who made it to the races first and had run a couple more times, winning. How odd that they found each other in Keeneland's 7th race allowance today. Marketing Mix held Inglorious at bay to win by a length and a quarter. Inglorious was not assured of 2nd, not with crackerjacks like Hungry Island behind her, but got it anyway.
By Medaglia d'Oro out of a Kris S. mare, Marketing Mix has Rachel Alexandra's sire on top and Zenyatta's broodmare sire on bottom. If Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra feel icily towards each other, perhaps Marketing Mix can be the peace maker. In all seriousness, horses out of Kris S. mares have a chance to be special. Don't just look at Zenyatta, but also Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet, out of the Kris S. mare Sweet Life. Both of those were also physical freaks.
I'm not sure that Marketing Mix is one of the rare special horses, but her last five races, which include four wins, two by large margins for the turf, really look like something. Certainly it would surprise no one if she was the Eclipse Award champion filly turfer this year.
By Medaglia d'Oro out of a Kris S. mare, Marketing Mix has Rachel Alexandra's sire on top and Zenyatta's broodmare sire on bottom. If Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra feel icily towards each other, perhaps Marketing Mix can be the peace maker. In all seriousness, horses out of Kris S. mares have a chance to be special. Don't just look at Zenyatta, but also Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet, out of the Kris S. mare Sweet Life. Both of those were also physical freaks.
I'm not sure that Marketing Mix is one of the rare special horses, but her last five races, which include four wins, two by large margins for the turf, really look like something. Certainly it would surprise no one if she was the Eclipse Award champion filly turfer this year.
Weight discrepancies in Derby-qualifying races are idiotic
Looking at the weights for the Arkansas Derby, and seeing that about half the field carries 118, and half 122....Now that the Derby preps are decidedly just that, and finish is crucial for entry into the Kentucky Derby, how can weight discrepancies be justified? As level a playing field as possible is needed.
Bailey's success controlling 2-year-old maiden races
I'm not in a position to document the possible trend, but looking at all of these old charts of 2-year-old maiden special weights from the late '90s, it seems to me that Bailey was consistently sending his mounts. I've always said that jockeys don't make horses run faster, but certainly they can determine the shape of a race, although one would think a little more in routes than sprints. I've been looking at sprints.
Today, whenever there is an impressive maiden special weight winner on the west coast, I assume the horse is trained by Baffert, and I do the same with Pletcher on the east coast, although with not quite the same degree of confidence. Lukas was perhaps to the Pletcher level in the era that I'm examining. But as much as I like to look past jockeys, Bailey was undeniably a presence in maiden special weights, almost on the order of elite trainers. I don't know whether his winning percentage was uncanny, especially in light of strong mounts. But I do think he was consistently making the lead, and from what I've seen looking at charts, the lead is a good place to be.
We had a 2-year-old at Saratoga in 1994, Silver Midnight, who opened up two or three early and hung on to win when he was ridden by Bailey, and he didn't run like that in his first two races without Bailey. So that recollection vivifies the idea for me.
I'm such a poor follower and watcher of jockeys, I can't even tell you whether what I've noticed with Bailey in the maiden charts is in line with his reputation. I suppose I would have expected more nuance in his game than just sending horses. And he was an older jockey, and one might have expected him to be more timid, and not shooting his inexperienced horses out of the starting gate. But, in my observation, Bailey had clearer philosophies about race riding than any other jock, and it's likely he had a distinct idea about 2-year-old maidens -- specifically, that you had to hustle the youngsters to win. He probably noticed this, and decided he was going to do something about it. He was a very, very determined guy.
Today, whenever there is an impressive maiden special weight winner on the west coast, I assume the horse is trained by Baffert, and I do the same with Pletcher on the east coast, although with not quite the same degree of confidence. Lukas was perhaps to the Pletcher level in the era that I'm examining. But as much as I like to look past jockeys, Bailey was undeniably a presence in maiden special weights, almost on the order of elite trainers. I don't know whether his winning percentage was uncanny, especially in light of strong mounts. But I do think he was consistently making the lead, and from what I've seen looking at charts, the lead is a good place to be.
We had a 2-year-old at Saratoga in 1994, Silver Midnight, who opened up two or three early and hung on to win when he was ridden by Bailey, and he didn't run like that in his first two races without Bailey. So that recollection vivifies the idea for me.
I'm such a poor follower and watcher of jockeys, I can't even tell you whether what I've noticed with Bailey in the maiden charts is in line with his reputation. I suppose I would have expected more nuance in his game than just sending horses. And he was an older jockey, and one might have expected him to be more timid, and not shooting his inexperienced horses out of the starting gate. But, in my observation, Bailey had clearer philosophies about race riding than any other jock, and it's likely he had a distinct idea about 2-year-old maidens -- specifically, that you had to hustle the youngsters to win. He probably noticed this, and decided he was going to do something about it. He was a very, very determined guy.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
A good weekend for Bluegrass Cat
It was a good weekend for Bluegrass Cat. Teeth of the Dog threatened at 53-1 in the Wood Memorial and ran 3rd. Laurie's Rocket must be thought of in a new light after a strong win in the $75,000 Bachelor at Oaklawn. It certainly seems that sprinting is what he wants to do. 50-1 Fine Silver took the last race of the Gulfstream meet, a maiden special weight on the turf. As she was 48-1 last out in a $75,000 maiden claiming race and ran 9th, also her first try on turf, 50-1 was not an unreasonable price.
Oxley's Sky Mesa/Saint Ballado cross also produced Starry Skies
In my post about Game Ball, I noted that John Oxley seemed to have a lot of Saint Ballado mares at one point, and his intention seemed to have been to breed them to Sky Mesa. Saint Ballado's statistics as a broodmare sire are actually mixed, from what I have seen, but maybe his numbers were better, or at least less clear, a few years ago. Game Ball is by Sky Mesa out of a Saint Ballado mare. The winner of Sunday's feature at Santa Anita, Starry Skies, is another Sky Mesa out of a Saint Ballado mare (named Cosmah Star).
Oxley raced Cosmah Star and chose the mating that resulted in Starry Skies, but isn't the official breeder of her, because Harris & Valpredo bought Cosmah Star when she was carrying Starry Skies. The price for the 9-year-old Cosmah Star was $22,000. Oxley actually bred Cosmah Star to Monarchos at least a couple of times before he bred her to Sky Mesa, which does undercut my theory that Oxley's Saint Ballado mares were intended for Sky Mesa any more than they were intended for his other stallions (which might just have included Monarchos, I don't know).
We may be hearing from Starry Skies on a more prominent stage, at least in California-bred races. She's won both her starts, both coming in turf sprints at Santa Anita. She was entered in the $200,000 Cal-bred Evening Jewel on the dirt on March 31 but scratched. So there's at least been thought to trying her on the dirt.
Starry Skies' time on Sunday was nothing special, and the caveat is there that it was against Cal-bred competition. She went wide around the turn, though, and was resolute in her close, showing a good turn of foot. She won by a length and a half and could be a nice filly.
Oxley raced Cosmah Star and chose the mating that resulted in Starry Skies, but isn't the official breeder of her, because Harris & Valpredo bought Cosmah Star when she was carrying Starry Skies. The price for the 9-year-old Cosmah Star was $22,000. Oxley actually bred Cosmah Star to Monarchos at least a couple of times before he bred her to Sky Mesa, which does undercut my theory that Oxley's Saint Ballado mares were intended for Sky Mesa any more than they were intended for his other stallions (which might just have included Monarchos, I don't know).
We may be hearing from Starry Skies on a more prominent stage, at least in California-bred races. She's won both her starts, both coming in turf sprints at Santa Anita. She was entered in the $200,000 Cal-bred Evening Jewel on the dirt on March 31 but scratched. So there's at least been thought to trying her on the dirt.
Starry Skies' time on Sunday was nothing special, and the caveat is there that it was against Cal-bred competition. She went wide around the turn, though, and was resolute in her close, showing a good turn of foot. She won by a length and a half and could be a nice filly.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Ten races at Woodbine, but only one real race (and that barely -- 6f!)
I'm all for breaking the monotony of a typical day at the races, but I can't say that running nine 5f races, as Woodbine did on Saturday, is the way to do it. It's more the way to get fans to say, "What is our sport coming to?" A google indicates that there is a method to this madness, and that it's not really to break the monotony, the way that an entire card of 2-year-old races is, for instance. On the paceadvantage forum, the posters are saying (courtesy of TVG?) that the 5f races are because it's early in the season. That's not going to cut it in my book.
Untuttable: an odd race record for a stallion
Considerations of a horse's potential at stud begins with its race record. Then you can spin the race record to explain why it might be more promising for a sire or dam than it appears at face value. When you see a horse with a 5 1 1 1, $32,230 line receiving a shot at stud, you're not thinking that one win came in a mile-and-a-quarter maiden special weight at Belmont Park, but that was the case with Untuttable. This seems like absolutely no qualification to be a stallion at all. It doesn't appear to be the case that Untuttable stayed with the man who raced him, who just had a soft spot for him, or an abiding belief in him, despite what he did in his races, either. I never knew Ned Evans to have Untuttables, and I know that Untuttable now stands at Gilbert Campbell's farm in Florida. Apparently, Campbell's first stallion was Shananie, and Untuttable is out of an In Reality mare. In Reality was the sire of Shananie, so that may be part of the appeal to Campbell. Untuttable's 3rd dam is also Gold Digger, dam of Mr. Prospector. His first two dams do not appear to be particularly impressive.
Another oddity with Untuttable is that his one really good offspring, This Ones for Phil is a pronounced sprinter on the dirt -- exactly the kind of profile that might enhance a stallion's race record, and the kind of horse one would fear Untuttable would never sire. I don't want to paint this post, though, as the unlikely story of Untuttable's success -- my impression is he's been given something of an opportunity, but has been quite a bad stallion, just as one would expect him to be.
It's not the case that he just happened to run and win in a 10-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, got hurt, and never got around to the more stallion-friendly races he might have handled as successfully as long races on the turf. He never ran under a mile, and in his two dirt races he finished 9th.
Another oddity with Untuttable is that his one really good offspring, This Ones for Phil is a pronounced sprinter on the dirt -- exactly the kind of profile that might enhance a stallion's race record, and the kind of horse one would fear Untuttable would never sire. I don't want to paint this post, though, as the unlikely story of Untuttable's success -- my impression is he's been given something of an opportunity, but has been quite a bad stallion, just as one would expect him to be.
It's not the case that he just happened to run and win in a 10-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, got hurt, and never got around to the more stallion-friendly races he might have handled as successfully as long races on the turf. He never ran under a mile, and in his two dirt races he finished 9th.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Flavor and Spicy Salsa
In the 11th at Gulfstream Saturday, how does Flavor finish right ahead of Spicy Salsa they were 3rd + 4th)? Flavor is even out of Right Spice, cementing the link.
Thank goodness for those few extra dollars too that had Flavor favored over Harbor Breeze. That was close, since both were 8/5.
Thank goodness for those few extra dollars too that had Flavor favored over Harbor Breeze. That was close, since both were 8/5.
Less standardized run-ups at Aqueduct than seen previously?
I'm not sure if this is something equibase is just starting, or is specific to Aqueduct, but Saturday's card shows races at the same distance with slightly different run-up distances. Some tracks are always reported to have the same run-up distance for the same length race. Others will run the same distance with different run-ups, even on the same card. But these tracks only have so many different run-up distances that they use, not an endless number. And the distances normally differ enough that one wants to know of them. At Aqueduct on Saturday, we had 6.5 furlong races with run-ups of 18 and 24 feet, and 8f races with run-ups of 36, 32, and 35 feet. I've never seen anything like that in the run-up realm. Standardization may not be completely gone, though, because the 7f Bay Shore and Carter are both reported to have been run with 40-foot run-ups.
Less elusive than some easter eggs: a $100,000 stakes winner offering 56-1 for his return in an allowance
As a Rodney Dangerfield horse, Dr. Diamonds Prize has nothing on Golden Yank. Making his 2012 debut at Keeneland in a 7.28-furlong money allowance at Keeneland on Friday, he finished 2nd, after having been dismissed at 56-1. The odd juxtaposition here was that Golden Yank had won a $100,000 stake when last seen -- the Unbridled at Louisiana Downs on Super Derby day (yes, 2011 Super Derby day). I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but I'm willing to accept that all $100,000 stakes are not created equal, with an edge for the ones at better tracks, but the disregard with which Golden Yank was held was ridiculous. He looked less attractive because the Unbridled was on turf but 1) there's almost not enough difference between turf form and synthetic form to worry about it 2) Golden Yank is nothing to sneeze at away from turf, since going into Friday's race, he had made $694,367 of his career $840,611 away from there.
Dr. Diamonds Prize: a Keeneland horse, a synthetic horse, or an improving horse?
After Dr. Diamonds Prize won a nw3x/80k optional claimer allowance at Keeneland on Ftiday, paying $40.00, it's clear surface is an issue with her. This is a positive; her dirt races have obscured her true ability. The question is if she's just a Keeneland specialist, or partial to synthetic surfaces in general.
The pay-out on Friday was eye-opening, because the last time she was seen at Keeneland, she led the Raven Run until the final yards at 76-1, ending up 3rd by a half, although vacating 3rd place officially to Mizdirection after a disqualification. Oddly, this was not the only time Mizdirection had been disqualified, and not the only time she had been moved to 4th; she finished 1st in an allowance at PID last year, only to suffer the same fate.
Throwing out the disqualifications, this looked like a synthetic horse, even before Friday's race: 5 2 2 1 (never out of the money) on synthetic; 9 2 1 2 otherwise. The only "official" win on synthetic before Friday came in the Gowell Stakes when she was 2, and she pretty much walked away with it, winning by 4 with a promising 81 Beyer. So her Keeneland form isn't necessarily any better than any her non-Keeneland, synthetic form.
Although she's consistently part of the pace at any distance, 7f might be more Dr. Diamonds Prize's game than the extreme sprints of less than 6f. Seven furlongs at Keeneland is certainly the safest way to go with her, although if she tries it enough, she's almost sure to run a bad race eventually. But whether she can also transfer these surprise races to the extreme sprints, or to turf, is unclear from her past performances. The first place for her to branch out is definitely staying on synthetic, and some branching out is going to be necessarily given the short length of the Keeneland meet.
The pay-out on Friday was eye-opening, because the last time she was seen at Keeneland, she led the Raven Run until the final yards at 76-1, ending up 3rd by a half, although vacating 3rd place officially to Mizdirection after a disqualification. Oddly, this was not the only time Mizdirection had been disqualified, and not the only time she had been moved to 4th; she finished 1st in an allowance at PID last year, only to suffer the same fate.
Throwing out the disqualifications, this looked like a synthetic horse, even before Friday's race: 5 2 2 1 (never out of the money) on synthetic; 9 2 1 2 otherwise. The only "official" win on synthetic before Friday came in the Gowell Stakes when she was 2, and she pretty much walked away with it, winning by 4 with a promising 81 Beyer. So her Keeneland form isn't necessarily any better than any her non-Keeneland, synthetic form.
Although she's consistently part of the pace at any distance, 7f might be more Dr. Diamonds Prize's game than the extreme sprints of less than 6f. Seven furlongs at Keeneland is certainly the safest way to go with her, although if she tries it enough, she's almost sure to run a bad race eventually. But whether she can also transfer these surprise races to the extreme sprints, or to turf, is unclear from her past performances. The first place for her to branch out is definitely staying on synthetic, and some branching out is going to be necessarily given the short length of the Keeneland meet.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The Derby graded-stakes drive: they're not going where the money is
The astronomical money that is being given out for weak Derby prep races like this year's Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial reminds me of a philanthropist throwing away a lot of money just for the gesture and public relations without really researching the charities he is benefiting. These races are true plunders. They seem to show that the 3-year-olds are exceptionally weak, to repeat my opening sentence adjective. But then the Santa Anita Derby is a completely different story. It's a compelling and deep race with impressive established horses and non-established potential stars. I understand it's an undertaking to ship east, and that Derby schedules are best planned in adnavced, and the California trainers didn't know how weak the Louisiana Derby and Wood would be. But it still doesn't seem to quite make sense that, for less money, the Santa Anita Derby has eight of the 10 best horses putting together Wood and Santa Anita Derby. My top 10 would be something like this.
1. Creative Cause
2. I'll Have Another
3. Midnight Transfer
4. Gemologist
5. Liaison
6. Alpha
7. Holy Candy
8. Brother Francis
9. Paynter
10. Longview Drive
Before you protest too strongly, Street Life is 4-1 on the morning line in the Wood, with a best Beyer of 85. He seems to have been shifted to Aqueduct two starts ago because he wasn't good enough to compete in Gulfstream maiden special weights. That's a bit of speculation, but not without merit.
Usually, when I make these kinds of over-the-top statements, they're just what is needed to send Wood Memorial graduates on to a Derby exacta or some such thing. The Wood horses will need the complete blessing of the racing gods (or, should I say, the grace of my wrath), for such a thing to happen, however.
1. Creative Cause
2. I'll Have Another
3. Midnight Transfer
4. Gemologist
5. Liaison
6. Alpha
7. Holy Candy
8. Brother Francis
9. Paynter
10. Longview Drive
Before you protest too strongly, Street Life is 4-1 on the morning line in the Wood, with a best Beyer of 85. He seems to have been shifted to Aqueduct two starts ago because he wasn't good enough to compete in Gulfstream maiden special weights. That's a bit of speculation, but not without merit.
Usually, when I make these kinds of over-the-top statements, they're just what is needed to send Wood Memorial graduates on to a Derby exacta or some such thing. The Wood horses will need the complete blessing of the racing gods (or, should I say, the grace of my wrath), for such a thing to happen, however.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Nice effort in Muniz by Joinem
Big race by 28-1 Joinem to be 3rd in the Mervyn Muniz despite going against the pace and going wide. He kept firing all the way to the wire. The time of the race wasn't bad, either, so I think it was a better race than longshots making up the tri might make you think. Joinem will be tough going forward if he can repeat this race. I suppose he was a promising horse to start off his career, and maybe he's getting back to that.
Is Look At the Time the next Star Guitar?
Star Guitar had a close call today against his rival Populist Politics, but ran his winning streak to nine and his career mark to 23 of 29. 29 23 0 2; it looks like something out of this black-covered book I had as a kid that had all of the Hall of Famer's records in it.
Earlier on the card, fellow Lousiana-bred Look At the Time finished first for the fourth time in four races. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from hid first race, so he had to do his maiden twice. His career past performances are very unusual because he hasn't even had a close call yet, winning by 4 1/4, 2 3/4, 3 1/4, and today, 3 1/2 in the Crescent City Derby. He certainly doesn't have the Beyers that Star Guitar has, or even the Beyers Star Guitar had as an early 3-year-old. He does perhaps have upside on the turf that hasn't been fully explored yet; he won one of his races there, and that's what he's bred to do, being by Brahms out of an Alysheba mare. I know I was underwhelmed by his time in his win on turf, however. I'd love it if Look At the Time became a local star and eventually challenged on the national front, but if trainer Wesley Hawley and company follow the example set by Star Guitar's connections (trainer is Al Stall), they'll be realistic with him. The comparison between the two does break down, because Star Guitar has never been on the turf.
Earlier on the card, fellow Lousiana-bred Look At the Time finished first for the fourth time in four races. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from hid first race, so he had to do his maiden twice. His career past performances are very unusual because he hasn't even had a close call yet, winning by 4 1/4, 2 3/4, 3 1/4, and today, 3 1/2 in the Crescent City Derby. He certainly doesn't have the Beyers that Star Guitar has, or even the Beyers Star Guitar had as an early 3-year-old. He does perhaps have upside on the turf that hasn't been fully explored yet; he won one of his races there, and that's what he's bred to do, being by Brahms out of an Alysheba mare. I know I was underwhelmed by his time in his win on turf, however. I'd love it if Look At the Time became a local star and eventually challenged on the national front, but if trainer Wesley Hawley and company follow the example set by Star Guitar's connections (trainer is Al Stall), they'll be realistic with him. The comparison between the two does break down, because Star Guitar has never been on the turf.
Gelding proportion as a marker of prestige in Dubai: middle-distance, synthetic the valued entities
I noticed something else about the horses in the Al Quoz Sprint: all 11 were geldings! This seemed so strange to me that I even checked the conditions, to make sure being a gelding wasn't a requirement (it would be a strange condition of the race, because the winner, Ortensia, was a mare). It turned out that the proportion of geldings differed greatly by race: 1 of 12 males was a gelding in the Godolphin Mile; 3 of 13 in the Gold Cup; 1 of 12 in the UAE Derby; 6 of 12 in the Golden Shaheen; 6 of 15 in the Duty Free; 4 of 9 in the Sheema Classic; and 2 of 13 in the World Cup.
Are we to take from this that, despite the (by way of comparison to the other races) lowly $1,000,000 purse, the Mile is in a way the most prestigious race, with horses groomed for success early in their careers? A mile is certainly a prestigious distance, probably even more so outside the U.S. than in the U.S. Then there is a certain commonality in the Golden Shaheen having the second highest proportion of geldings after the Al Quoz Sprint, since it is another sprint. If we again take the proportion of geldings to indicate prestige, it seems odd that sprinting would be taken with so little seriousness, but mile races so glamorized. Both require speed, and my informal review of ex-sprinter stallions is that they do very well in this day and age.
There also seems a trend of the races on the synthetic having fewer geldings than the races on turf (21% to 49%; the gelding percentage in the turf races was 33% even without the gelding-universal Al Quoz Sprint). This seems quite strange to me. Surely the horse industry realizes by now that synthetic racing is similar to turf racing and does not particularly reward the speed that is so valuable at stud? It seems odd that owners would be trying to make stallions by having them win on synthetic. I suppose that makes sense only from the standpoint that a synthetic win is something new to add to the resume for a lot of international horses.
The UAE Derby was probably colt-filled because it generally takes a certain amount of precocity to have the resume for the race: horses that are gelded are often backwards, and not on the path to such a race.
Gelding/non-gelding practices probably differ by country, and some races logically had some countries represented in higher proportion than others. But something of that nature was not behind the Al Quoz Sprint phenomenon, as five of the eleven geldings in the race were bred in the southern hemisphere, and six in the northern hemisphere.
Are we to take from this that, despite the (by way of comparison to the other races) lowly $1,000,000 purse, the Mile is in a way the most prestigious race, with horses groomed for success early in their careers? A mile is certainly a prestigious distance, probably even more so outside the U.S. than in the U.S. Then there is a certain commonality in the Golden Shaheen having the second highest proportion of geldings after the Al Quoz Sprint, since it is another sprint. If we again take the proportion of geldings to indicate prestige, it seems odd that sprinting would be taken with so little seriousness, but mile races so glamorized. Both require speed, and my informal review of ex-sprinter stallions is that they do very well in this day and age.
There also seems a trend of the races on the synthetic having fewer geldings than the races on turf (21% to 49%; the gelding percentage in the turf races was 33% even without the gelding-universal Al Quoz Sprint). This seems quite strange to me. Surely the horse industry realizes by now that synthetic racing is similar to turf racing and does not particularly reward the speed that is so valuable at stud? It seems odd that owners would be trying to make stallions by having them win on synthetic. I suppose that makes sense only from the standpoint that a synthetic win is something new to add to the resume for a lot of international horses.
The UAE Derby was probably colt-filled because it generally takes a certain amount of precocity to have the resume for the race: horses that are gelded are often backwards, and not on the path to such a race.
Gelding/non-gelding practices probably differ by country, and some races logically had some countries represented in higher proportion than others. But something of that nature was not behind the Al Quoz Sprint phenomenon, as five of the eleven geldings in the race were bred in the southern hemisphere, and six in the northern hemisphere.
Al Quoz Sprint leaves little doubt about older horses' suitability
In another post (http://www.reflectionsonaracingform.blogspot.com/2011/10/calculating-jimmy-very-vibrant-8-year.html), I said that Calculating Jimmy's staying power as a need-the-lead sprinter was surprising. But in the Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup day, I noticed that the field of 15 included two 9-year-olds and four 7-year-olds, for an average age of 6.2 and a median age of 6. The older horses were particularly well-represented among the race's heroes, with 7-year-old Ortensia winning, and 9-year-old Joy And Fun 3rd. It appears that sprinting on the turf is exactly what older horses want to do.
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