My belief is that there is a good deal of confusion about the effect that running on synthetic has on results, and even more wasted energy on the topic. The biggest effect is that turf horses are at least as apt to like synthetic as dirt horses. An effect is not (generally) to deprive talented horses of their usual dominance, or to render results inexplicable without reference to synthetic form. I do have some evidence for this point of view, courtesy of my odds study, but what I am saying is also common sense, and should resonate with every careful observer.
However, I care enough about the truth, and not just my position on issues, that I'm always on the look out for exceptions. From Saturday's card at Keeneland, Agastache and Corleone struck me as possible exceptions, and possible examplars of "synthetic horses."
Agastache is certainly a great examplar of a career allowance horse, if nothing else. The 6-year-old has made over $358,000 in 43 starts, while never winning a stake, and never running in a graded event. He began his career in the winter of his 3-year-old year on dirt, breaking his maiden second time out at Fair Grounds, and then running 3rd of 9 in a first-level allowance at Oaklawn. He then shifted to Arlington, winning twice and hitting the board three more times in six starts (this was 2008 at Arlington; synthetic). The next year of his career was mostly on dirt, with two wins from 11 starts there, and one start and one win at Turfway over the synthetic.
In his first race at Keeneland, in the fall of his 4-year-old year, he took a nw3x/80k optional allowance at 8-1. He made 10 more starts before coming to the same meet as a 5-year-old (with eight dirt starts, and a 2nd and a 5th in stakes at Turfway and Presque Isle Downs, respectively, over the synthetic). At Keeneland, running in the same condition he'd captured the year before, he was this time 2nd, but at a juicy 17-1. He then jumped from a $53,000 allowance to a $54,000 one at the same meet, and won that at 9/2. In another money allowance at Keeneland the next spring, he was 2nd by a neck in a five-horse field.
He entered Saturday's race off a 3 1/2 month layoff, the longest of his career, but was still making his 8th start of the year. He hadn't found synthetic for any of his races besides the Keeneland 2nd-place finish, but generally had run creditably while not winning, with the race preceding the layoff, the Don Bernhardt at Ellis, the only really bad showing.
I noticed him in Saturday's race (probably an exact replica of the condition for his 2010 score at Keeneland, which was probably also on the final day of the meet) because his form looked moderate for him to be the second choice in the betting behind Winslow Homer. Then I noticed the strong Keeneland races, and a 13 5 5 1 record on synthetic overall, and went "aha." Agastache's career record on dirt is 22 2 5 5. Whether you break down his synthetic record into Keeneland and non Keeneland, or his dirt record by track, his in-the-money statistics just seem stronger on synthetic surfaces.
Saturday's race was not a continuation of the trend; Agastache finished 6th of 11, beaten 5 1/2 lengths.
Corleone, 2nd in the 6th race Saturday behind blowout winner Long Lake Krista, didn't do better than 6th in three dirt races for Pletcher in 2010 and early 2011. In the midst of that disappointing streak, however, she was 2nd in a maiden special weight at Keeneland behind Bouquet Booth. Moving to an easier circuit (synthetic Presque Isle Downs) and trainer Charles Lopresti, Corleone did well, breaking her maiden by 5 lengths and placing in two first-level allowance. She built on the momentum once she came to Keeneland, finishing 3rd on the first Saturday of the meet, in addition to Saturday's placing. All of her Beyers with Lopresti have been better than what she did with Pletcher (that actually includes the Keeneland 2nd, which was, however, her best Beyer at 2).
If that Keeneland 2nd at 2 wasn't there, the improvement could be chalked up to the light bulb going on, or maybe even the trainer change, despite Pletcher's general success. But the good showing at Keeneland at 2 creates a seductive pattern (although one based on small sample size).
Another dimension to Corleone's record is that she was well received as a 2-year-old in training, bringing $325,000. She hasn't lived up to that: if she had, Pletcher would still be training her. By the way, where do you think she sold, and presumably worked, before bringing that big price? At Keeneland.
These text-book examples of synthetic horses are missing one key thing that keeps alive my skepticism of the veracity of "synthetic horses": they've never run on turf. That's hard to believe, with all of the running Agastache has done; his connections apparently aren't of the experimental disposition (unless he worked on turf and hated it, or something. Also worth mentioning that Agastache's first trainer was Asmussen, while his trainer has been Rick Hiles for at least the last 13 races). But simple logic would say that you need to see a horse on dirt, synthetic, and turf, to see if the synthetic form is really a separate phenomenon. Does Agastache just like synthetic, or does he dislike dirt (remembering he's still won over 100k there)? Which performances are the exceptions, the dirt ones, or the synthetic ones? Corleone isn't as experienced as Agastache, and maybe she'll get to turf in due time. The probability that these horses are truly "synthetic horses" is increased because their pedigrees don't look turfy at all: sires and broodmare sires are Mutakddim, Clever Trick, Indian Charlie, and Mining.
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