No respect for Cute Cadet

The morning-line odds in New York are very aggressive, by which I mean that the oddsmaker doesn't mind putting longshots at higher odds than they go off, and favorites at shorter odds. He isn't trying to avoid hurting people's feelings, he's actually trying to get the odds right, and that means errors high and low for high and low odds horses. When I said he isn't trying to hurt people's feelings, I of course meant the connections of the horses, but strong opinions can resonate further. I, for instance, am right now bordering on indignant that a 2-year-old filly named Cute Cadet in the New York-bred only Joseph A. Gimma Saturday is listed at 50-1 on the morning line.

Even in New York, if we were to take all of the 50-l morning-line shots on the year, this would have to be one of the more plausible entrants. For she ran 4th by 2 1/4 last out -- and well may be taking a class drop! That result came in the $150,000, open Presque Isle Debutante. It was a 12-horse field, so 4th place was very respectable. She came from 10th place and adds blinkers today. The Gimma is a $100,000, state-bred race.

While the PID Debutante was on synthetic, Cute Cadet didn't run well in her other start on synthetic, and broke her maiden on dirt, so synthetic wouldn't seem to have been the driving force. She's also by Officer out of a Future Storm mare, with Carson City the sire of her second dam. Why can't she run on dirt?

I think what may have happened is that the oddsmaker looked at Presque Isle Downs and curled up his nose without thinking of the actual nature of the last spot. Additionally, the oddsmaker seems to go heavily on connections. Cute Cadet's trainer has only made 36 starts this year. For the 5th time in five starts, her jockey is Joel Sone. He's ridden her at Belmont, Finger Lakes, and Presque Isle. That's not wholly a bad sign.

Using speed and not class, I'm not sure what odds Cute Cadet deserves to be. None of her Beyers exceeded 35 before her last of 60. No horse in the race has a better last-out Beyer than 69, however. It's somewhat fluky that the last-race Beyers are so tightly condensed in a 2-year-old stake. Nine of the eleven fillies ran from 60-69 last out. It should make for the good proverbial betting race.