Hammers Terror was hammered

At first glance, there doesn't seem to be anything extraordinary about Hammers Terror's 2/5 favoritism in a Keeneland maiden today (which he only won by a half length, but with 6 1/2 lengths over 3rd in a track-record, decent-figure performance). However, I have a huge and far-reaching study of odds in the hopper, and I can tell you of 710 races with 12 betting interests over 2007-2008, the lowest-priced favorite was only 1-2. So I exulted when I saw the odds in this chart, and rushed to see if it was indeed unprecedented in my study, as I remembered it to be. It would have really been something if Hammers Terror were a first-time starter, but the support was more reason-based than that: he had been 2nd by a nose first out behind subsequent stakes winner Luke of York. At 79, his Beyer was certainly not otherworldy, though. The second choice in today's race was Colonel John's brother Bill of Rights, who had been 3rd first out at Woodbine. You had to fear him some; it's not like there was nothing else in this race. Hammers Terror actually was bet remarkably well in that debut, too, starting at 17-10 in another 12-horse field. Despite the close call, I liked his race today and think he has a good future ahead of him. The bigger lesson is simply that we (or at least I) tend not to make sufficient mental adjustments for field size when looking at odds. Twelve horses and six horses are completely different ballgames.