Friday, October 21, 2011

The occasional pedigreequery error (0 for 55, not 0 for 5) keeping life interesting

The 1st at Santa Anita Saturday is a $75,000 2-year-old maiden claimer at 6f, and I did some digging on the morning-line favorite, Shy Humor. He's a first-time starter, and a 45 2/5 bullet work at Santa Anita seems to have gotten him the projected favoritism. Even though Santa Anita is a fast strip, and $75,000 is a high tag, when I see a horse exposed with a 45 2/5 work, I wonder if he's right physically.

Shy Humor also has the redeeming characteristic of being a New York-bred. I don't think NYRA runs $75,000 state-bred maiden claimers (they save that for Monmouth), but I have to think this gelding would be in the straight maidens, and for a good deal more purse opportunity than the $30,000 he runs for Saturday.

He sold rather well as a 2-year-old in training, $58,000, and with a work that wasn't blazing. You generally wouldn't put $58,000 together with Sharp Humor and 10 3/5 and think of an unsound horse.

The dam, Black Barcardi, couldn't run much, running 42 times but earning less than $1,000 a start while running at a long series of tracks housing some of the slower horses in the sport. As a producer, she has likewise been ordinary, although 86 starts and counting for her Barco might allay some concerns on the soundness front. Another foal, Unwavering Spirit, was listed as 0 for 55 with no in-the-money finishes on pedigreequery.com. If true, that would have bolstered the soundness pattern, but raised alarms on the talent front. It turns, out, though, that Unwavering Spirit was just 0 for 5, not 0 for 55, and never in the money. I'm disappointed. Black Bacardi is out of a very good producer, Conquistress, who had Derby 2nd Invisible Ink, and is the 2nd dam of such as Dyna's Lassie.

As far as evaluating this colt, it's important to determine just how fast this 45 2/5 work really was. I'd have to review recent afternoon and morning times at Santa Anita (I know they're fast, but I'mnot sure how fast). Behind the 45 2/5, Shy Humor's next fastest works are two 1:00s for 5f and one 1:00 1/5.

If there weren't a flashy work in tow, a $75,000 maiden claimer would be an absolutely textbook spot for a $58,000 2-year-old purchase. I've seen enough horses with this profile that the work convinces me that he can run some, but doesn't convince me that the connections (including trainer Vann Belvoir) have him placed wrong. Even if he wins and he's brilliant, I'm holding out for the unsoundness theory rather than that they just dared other stables to take him. By the way, I do like what I've seen from Sharp Humor.

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