BC Dirt Mile: an unusual "good betting race"

A good betting race is typically one where many horses have a reasonable chance of winning. Superstar horses typically ruin good betting races. Championship-level races will sometimes be interesting betting contests when they draw multiple superstars, such as when Damascus, Buckpasser, and Dr. Fager squared off, and everything considered, these are the best races. But even in cases like that, the betting is salvaged by the presence of multiple superstars, but not necessarily as interesting as it is in a race where six, seven, eight horses have a realistic chance of winning.

The BC Turf Sprint is a classic good betting race. It features many very good horses, but no great horses. No Hall of Famers, horses approaching the Hall of Fame level, or even horses among the top 30 in training in North America. Only one of the 14 has won as many as half of his career starts (Regally Ready). California Flag and Chamberlain Bridge are past winners of the race, but I don't think you could say that either was dominant at the time that he won it, never mind now.

The BC Dirt Mile also strikes me as an excellent betting race, despite being a little low in its number of entrants (9) as far as excellent betting races go. This field, however, does not lack for brilliance. The Factor set a Santa Anita track record for 6f in just his second start, and has been odds-on in grade Is in two of his last three starts. Shackleford won the Preakness and dares horses to catch him. Caleb's Posse beat Uncle Mo in the King's Bishop. Trappe Shot cost $850,000 as a 2-year-old, has won races by 10 1/4, 12 3/4, and 8 1/2 lengths, and has Beyers of 111 and 112. Even Jersey Town will take a lot of beating if he can run back to his Cigar Mile win from last year. The problem, however, is that all of these horses are coming into the race off losses: indeed, only Shackleford did as well as 2nd in his last start, and Trappe Shot was the closest to winning lengths wise, and still came up 2 1/2 lengths short. So the question isn't if these horses are worthy of winning a Breeders' Cup race, and how they compare, but if they will fire. The handicapping is complicated because the horses' capability at the distance is conjecture: among races showing in the past performances, I believe only Jersey Town has ever run a one-turn mile. I know I would be more bullish on The Factor, Caleb's Posse, and Trappe Shot at 7f than 8f.

I actually still have a rather strong opinion in here: Trappe Shot. Aside from his Travers, he's never really run a bad race. I think his 97 Beyer in the Vosburgh was undershot by a good 5 points. Seven furlongs might be his best distance, but he's been forced into running 6f, and I don't think that's his best, either. Velazquez can be patient from the outside post. And at bottom, after saying that this race is really about who will be best Saturday, not who is really best overall, I do think he is the class of the race: the true standout.