Ultimate Eagle backed up his 34-1 win in the Oak Tree Derby with a 14-1 win in the Hollywood Derby on Sunday. This brings up a pet theory of mine, which is that surprise winners are often discounted, and then return to give the same effort and achieve the same result next time. Call it the Birdonthewire theory: I remember picking him in a graded stake at Saratoga at good odds after he won one at Belmont (equibase horse search shows the races in question were the '93 Tom Fool and Forego). It would be one thing if Ultimate Eagle had looked flukish in the Oak Tree Derby, but I don't believe that that was the case. The bettors just didn't think he could do it again and got diverted by other interesting choices.
I liked the field for the race, believing it a deserving grade I, but it is a little hard to justify runner-up Imagining at 13-1 and Ultimate Eagle at 14-1, when Imagining was just coming off a 5th in a nw1x allowance. I mean, I like Shug McGaughey as much as the next person, and I like Giant's Causeways stretching out, but a lower price for Imagining is basing an awful lot on projections. Certainly, it has to be acknowledged that Imagining didn't perform as an underlay, though; Ultimate Eagle performed as an overlay.
You also had Venomous, runner-up to Ultimate Eagle last time, going off at 3-1, and even Oak Tree Derby 3rd-place finisher Cozy Kitten going off at lower odds than Ultimate Eagle at 12-1.
Ultimate Eagle should have been particularly appealing at his odds because he is a speed horse. Never sell quality speed on the turf short. Horses who fit that bill will win races they shouldn't. In my opinion, the same doesn't happen nearly as often on dirt.
Ultimate Eagle had also set an honest pace in the Oak Tree Derby, going 1:10 2/5 en route to 1:47 for a mile and an eighth. A 1:14 first 6f in the Hollywood Derby was all the help that he needed -- in fact, more help than he needed.
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