Before notes on BC F+M Sprint

I have to say that I was shocked to see that Champagne d'Oro, taking another crack at the race this year, was the 4.40-1 favorite last year. That must have been the very height of her stock. She was 36-1 in the Kentucky Oaks, 39-1 when winning the Acorn, and then added the Test two starts later. I guess her 4th in the Thoroughbred Club of America before the BC was dismissed as part of the usual polytrack nonsense. (You can see how helpful that line of thinking was.) Only a small-field 3rd in the Honorable Miss this year saves Champagne d'Oro from eight straight out-of-the-money finishes. On the surface, it's just odd to have a horse with a 20-3-3-2 record having been a favorite in a Breeders' Cup championship race, and in a race with older horses, no less. (I'm sure sometimes we get it really wrong with 2-year-olds, with the little we have to go on going into the Breeders' Cup.) Champagne d'Oro has had a fine year in the pedigree department, with Ruler On Ice having won the Belmont. My basic belief about her isn't I don't think she was ever good enough to have won a Breeders' Cup race. I don't think this is a filly who went terribly off form. Understood or even underrated for much of her career, I think she was overrated for that Breeders' Cup. And identifying false favorites is valuable, even when they're of the lukewarm variety, as Champagne d'Oro was last year. Now, if I could only accomplish this before the fact....

I like looking at old results and identifying diamonds in the rough, like Jamie K., who came a neck short of Native Dancer in the Preakness and Belmont. If Havre de Grace wins the Classic, and follows up Zenyatta as Horse of the Year, some assiduous racing historian will probably fall in love with Switch as his personal discovery, noting that she gave both distaffers fabulous races. I can even see Switch fan clubs in the year 2100. When we note the Zenyatta/Switch kinds of battles, we're always seeing the runner-up at her best, however. There's a reason we remember Native Dancer and not Jamie K., and the championing of the forgotten horse can underestimate the better horse's superiority.

If Switch takes this race on Friday, she might end up being than a reference point. Her last two or three have left me wondering if she's lost a step, but she's certainly been one of the more admirable runners these last couple of years.