When I review a card's turf races, I first standardize the final times for distance, and also simplify the fractions. On the second point, I take the fraction that most closely equals halfway through the race, and reduce that time to its quarter mile rate. I then do the same for the remainder of the race after the halfway mark.
For instance, a one mile race that goes in 1:35, with a first half in :47, is simplified to (23.50, 24.00). The first half went in :47 (23.50), the second half in :48 (24.00).
If a pace accelerates in the second half of a race, closers seem to struggle to win, and the more uneven the comparison is, the worse the slant is towards front runners. Another point is that the farther off a slow pace a closer is, the less likely he is to win. So you have four questions, I guess.
1. Was the pace accelerating?
2. How accelerating was it?
3. Did the winner close?
4. If so, from how far back did he close?
A horse running at Gulfstream this meet, Game Ball, is turning this theory on its head with three victories and a nose loss in four starts. From the positions he's running, and the paces he's facing, he shouldn't even be competitive, and yet he's winning. Here's the summary.
12/9 (24.52, 23.56) Game Ball 12 by 9 3/4 halfway. 1 by 4 1/2 finish
1/15 (24.56, 23.90) Game Ball 11 by 10 halfway. 1 by 1/2 finish.
2/16 (24.87, 23.84) Game Ball 9 by 7 1/2 halfway. 2 by no finish.
3/18 (25.75, 23.86) Game Ball 9 by 9 halfway. 1 by hd finish.
Only the 1/15 pace was even close to being reasonable. The others were majorly slanted towards frontrunners. Sunday's pace was ridiculous.
The question is if the normal rules somehow don't apply to Game Ball, and he wouldn't win more emphatically with a faster pace, or might even have a more difficult time winning than he's having now -- or, if he is just completely outclassing the horses he's facing, and is actually running like a high-class allowance horse, or even a stakes winner of a level unknown, while he beats the starter allowance horses with what amounts to a sizeable handicap.
Also standing out about this horse is that John Oxley bred him, and has campaigned him for all 18 of his races, even as he descended as low as $7,500 claiming. Oxley has won the Derby and dreams the dream, and I don't think claiming races is his game.
When I saw that Game Ball went from the Illinois Derby in his 4th start, to a claiming race in his 5th, I thought he must be an unsound horse, or a horse with an issue insiders thought was in danger of derailing him at any time. But what comes through more with complete past performances is a horse who's a plodder, who was never thought very fast or very talented. The Illinois Derby start was a leap for him, after a maiden 50 win and an allowance win at Tampa. The claiming race was of a decent level: $40,000, non-winners-of-three-lifetime, and he was 8-1 in it. Game Ball still works between races, which obviously isn't something that can be taken for granted with a $10,000 starter allowance horse.
I think John Oxley must love the horse to death, must consider him incredible fun. Horses who win a lot but don't make much money get called "fun"; horses that make money but don't win, are frustrating. Game Ball is also fun because he can win on dirt or turf (although if he does have a stakes future, I have a strong suspicion it's on turf). And when he began his winning streak, which was snapped on February 16, 12-furlong and longer races at Fort Erie were his prey. Fun horses are colorful, and don't do the normal things.
Game Ball is by Sky Mesa out of a Saint Ballado mare, Balldo. I know Oxley (or if not, Debby Oxley) also has Play Ballado, dam of the current stakes winner, Sweet Seventeen, and a talented, graded stakes-placed runner in her own right. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Oxley has (or had) a bunch of Saint Ballado mares. I have a dim impression of thus. Maybe the strategy was to breed them to Sky Mesa. Oxley became the owner of Balldo between her 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons.
I can do all the pace analysis that I want; maybe it's just my pessimistic personality, but I feel Game Ball is consigned to be fun and not good. A fun horse also means you root for the horse, however, so I hope I'm wrong.
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