Friday, March 16, 2012

Talk about market inefficiencies -- Street Crew!

The 3-year-old filly Street Crew broke her maiden in a mile off-the-turf maiden at Gulfstream Thursday, paying $56.00. I have to think she was a plausible play. Not only is she a half sister to grade I winner and millionaire Critical Eye, but her 5-year-old half sister Glamorista romped in an allowance at Santa Anita Sunday for her second win in three career starts. In her debut, Glamorista got a 95 Beyer, and I gave her a (perhaps somewhat generous) 92 for Sunday's win. Glamorista's race on Sunday was on the dirt, and Critical Eye also made her mark on the dirt, despite being by Dynaformer. Street Crew also had a license to be good, going for $350,000 as a March 2-year-old.

I know, through studying, that fans bet trainers and jockeys. You probably know this because you do it, although maybe you should do less of it. Comparing Street Crew individually with each of the otehr horses in the race, her odds seem to have been a product of

1) Running 10th by 10 1/4 first out (albeit after having "hesitated at the start").

2) Jockey Rocco, Jr. and trainer Tarrant taking a backseat to higher profile jockeys and trainers.

3) Unclear. Even if you assess the way most people assess, you don't get this filly as much higher odds than every horse in the race except for Negrita Tata. You would really hope that if her odds didn't quite square with past form and connections, the difference would be a lower price, with the Street Cry/Critical Eye/350k purchase price aspects drawing attention.

But it was the opposite; Street Crew was truly dead on the board. For instance, 11-1 Cypress Pond was 8th by 7 first out, with a 49 Beyer, compared to the 52 that Street Crew received in her one start. Rusty Arnold, Cypress Pond's trainer, has a much bigger stable than Amy Tarrant, but he actually won a lower percentage of starts in 2011. And Manoel Cruz has 45% fewer wins at the current Gulfstream meet than Joseph Rocco, with only 16% fewer mounts.

Perhaps the fact that Street Crew had run on the turf in her debut scared people, whereas Cypress Pond was just shifting from Keeneland's synthetic. But couldn't it be argued that the fact that Street Crew would be completely changing games after a unsatisfactory first race was a positive? It wasn't known what she could do on dirt, and it turned out to be winning this race.

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