Interesting question provoked by Questing from Gulfstream's 9th on Wednesday. She boasted excellent form at 2 in England, not only coming within a head and a neck of a couple of group III triumphs, but coming that close to an undefeated record, since she won her other race, her maiden debut, by 3 1/2 lengths.
These credentials gave her a shot at the BC Juvenile Fillies (the dirt one), and herein lies the dilemma Questing posed. She finished 5th of 14 in the race, so was in one sense very competitive. But she was beaten a fairly long way (11 3/4), and the race wasn't fast, so her Beyer was just 66. If you believe her Beyer, her performance might not have been good enough to win an average maiden special weight. Certainly, one can't just ignore the good European form, and that has to raise her rating, but what as a handicapper do you go with? The 66 Beyer, or a horse who beat over two thirds of the best 2-year-old fillies when matched up against them? My instinct would have been to credit the latter more than the former.
I suppose the fans did, too; Questing was heavily bet, 4/5 in a 12-horse field, with no one else (the eventual winner, the now 2 for 2 Dame Marie) lower than 5-1. Whether Questing's performance shed any light on the fundamental question or not, she disappointed in an unmistakable way, running 4th, and never looking best.
This race was on the turf, which I'm sure bolstered bettors' confidence in her chances. If the race had been on dirt, the 66 Beyer from the BC Juvenile Fillies could be coupled with the out-of-the-money finish, and it could be hypothesized that Questing is just better on turf. With the race being on turf, she's emerging as a tough read, although I'd still be inclined to think she'll have a good 2012.
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