Sunday, March 18, 2012

A rabbit who's not up to the task, slow final times, and more about Fabulous Sasha

My initial interest in this filly was that she was 107-1 in Saturday's 5th at Gulfstream, a 35-30 8.5f maiden claimer on the turf, and took the field around on the front end until the stretch call. I wasn't thinking, "Wooh, she almost won at 107-1," although I suppose you could look at things that way. (Fabulous Sasha ended up 5th by 3 1/2). Instead, I noticed that the race was very slow, even for being a bottom class race for Gulfstream. The fractions were slow throughout. You see a lot of turf races of all classes that are slow for the first half, but usually the pace picks up after that. This one remained slow through 6f (it was 49.16 for the half, and 1:14.48 for 3/4, on a firm course).

I believe in track and field, in order to set a record in races like the mile, a good pacesetter is desirable. Well, Fabulous Sasha was the opposite of a good pacesetter. Probably no one wanted to move early, and so they just lay behind this filly as she really didn't do her part of the bargain to bring about a good final time. And, while I doubt this maiden claimer was a good race, speed figures might underrate the time, depending on their methodology.

I don't know that I've seen a horse who has had attracted such a small share of the betting race after race as Fabulous Sasha has. Maybe we can credit the South Florida bettors, because I don't think she's been uniquely overmatched. High prices are quirks, and ineptness on the part of the horse is just one variable. Sasha's prices prior to Saturday's race were 200-1, 128-1, 86-1, 34-1, 163-1, 122-1, and 109-1. That takes us to the fourth start of her career. She's just a 3-year-old.

Going off a longer price on Saturday in the same heat was 6-year-old Toccatina, also making her 4th start. She was 126-1, and ran to it, finishing 9th of 10.

Fabulous Sasha deserved sentimental support because her jockey, Jerry Villegas, still hasn't won. He's 0 for 21 career with three 3rds. Fabulous Sasha was eligible to carry 106 pounds in the race, but Villegas could only make 109.

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